If China is dominating the global trade, then the USA will suffer greatly since the USA depends on free riding over the Global South through the Bretton Wood institutes like World Bank and International Monetary Fund. The USA need puppet financial institutions like the Bretton Wood institutes to force the global south governments to abandon their own for-profit private firms in favor of dependency to foreign firms from NATO countries, to stop protectionist policies in industries that the NATO countries excel in even as the NATO countries enforce protectionist policies on industries that Global South countries excel in, and to forcely reduce the social spending of Global South government so the public sector of the Global South countries will depend on non-government organizations that are funded by governments from NATO countries. France would also not be able to collect colonial tax from their former colonies as ‘repayment’ for the development of the countries that were already developed before European colonization.
They kind of already are in a way. Their populace is happy with the government and the government itself is going in the opposite direction the USSR was going when it started to fall prey to capitalist corruption. CPC is actively rooting out corruption I the ranks and moving towards more socialist policies, nationalizing industries etc. It’s hard to just stop that kind of momentum. Meanwhile the US gets worse every day. So are far as which society will collapse first. Which one will have the most civil unrest etc, it’s definitely the US.
That all being said I don’t know which side has better propaganda because most Westerners are uneducated enough to just believe anything they are told and been indoctrinated into a kind of mentality that if someone argues them, regardless of fact, then they are wrong and bad and to be ignored.
IMO the CPC has missed a lot of critical opportunities to propagandize the people. Zero covid needed communication about the airborne nature of the disease, long covid effects, impact on the immune system, effectiveness of various countermeasures, etc. Not enough was done to defend against the western liberal “it’s mild” canard and many will die as a result. They also have a lot less funding for propaganda than western newspapers and cable news channels. On the other hand it ought to be more cost effective to propagandize with truth than with lies.
Before Ukraine it was a bit hard to tell, now I think things have cleared up quite a bit. Collective west is having a hell of a time taking on Russia, and China has a far bigger industrial base. I expect that Ukraine is going to collapse the economy in Europe, and Europe will in turn drag US down with it.
Meanwhile, China will be the economic centre of BRICS, and the rest of the world will align around it. Isolated and depleted west has no real chance against the rest of the world pulling together.
Europe will in turn drag US down with it.
I’m not so sure about this. One of the knock-on effects of the Ukraine conflict raising European energy prices is that European (particularly German) industry is relocating to the US for its lower input costs. After what transpired with Nord Stream 2 being destroyed by the UK under the US’s orders, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that they were seeking to keep Germany from lowering its energy prices to maintain this migration. (The simpler, more obvious reason is to keep Germany from negotiating into neutrality, but the reasons aren’t mutually exclusive or even conflicting.)
I think it’s less a case of Europe dragging down the US so much as the US appropriating Europe’s secondary industries to make up for its declining tertiary sector. A sign of Empire in decline, yes, but the US isn’t in danger of suffering as much as Europe.
It’s figuratively the US ship shoring up its leaks by taking pieces off the sinking EU ship
I do think that blowing up Nord Stream was at least in part intended to force Germany into deindustrialization.
The problem for US is that Europe is the biggest export market, and if European economy collapses that’s necessarily going to have a knock-on effect on US economy. U.S. goods exports to the EU 27 in 2019 totaled $267.6 billion, up 6.2 percent ($15.7 billion) from 2018 and up 53 percent from 2009. U.S. exports to the EU 27 account for 16.3 percent of overall U.S. exports in 2019.
Another factor is that US isn’t the only game in town. I expect that a lot of industry will move to Asia, and to China in particular. US simply can’t compete with China when it comes to industrial production capacity. China is also a huge market and the economy there is much more stable than in US.
Basically, trying to cannibalize your allies is incredibly short sighted, and it shows lack of vision in US leadership.
The US has never been known for having much long term thought, tbf.
very true
Europe will in turn drag US down with it.
How do you see this happening?
Most of US exports go to Europe, if European economy crashes that’s going to cause export market in US to collapse https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union
Oh that is interesting, I was not aware. Thanks! Do you think they’ll be able to reroute to South America?
It’s going to be difficult given that Europe had higher purchasing power per capita than South America. Also, presumably they are already exporting what they can to South America. When there is a niche for making profit, then some business will fill it. If there was potential for significant growth in South American then companies would already be going after it.
Exactly. The likeliest response to a collapse in European consumption is a crisis of overproduction. This will of course have a cascade effect, resulting in myriad other economic crises, culminating in balance of payments crises, the economic equivalent of a heart attack. Each national crisis is in turn an opportunity for its competitors, circling like vultures to seize anything of value from the country in its moment of economic weakness. This, I think, is where the specific nature of the EU’s loose confederation of nations will cause calamity; there is serious disunity between the national bourgeois of the various member states, particularly France and Germany. In the event economic crisis hits Europe there won’t be a truly coordinated, unified response. Instead, individual member states and their ruling classes will jostle for advantage with each other. This has already been heralded by the hoarding of PPE by individual states when supplies were limited in the initial stint of the pandemic, when they left Italy to languish.
Completely agree, something like EU can only be functional in times of growth and prosperity. Once you end up in a situation where there aren’t enough resources to go around then countries that are better off are going to pull up the ladders. We’re already starting to see that happening, and political tensions rising between EU members. It’s going to get a lot worse once the full effects of the energy crisis hit.
I would estimate there is a 75 percent chance of China “winning” the current cold war.
While I’d love for it to be the ultimate defeat of capitalism, I have my doubts. The world needs to go socialist sometime this century in order to prevent the worst effects of climate change/pollution, and the road to socialism is still a long one.
While I’d love for it to be the ultimate defeat of capitalism, I have my doubts.
Capitalism will only go away once its source, the US - becomes history or becomes so weak
globallythat it becomes a shell of its former self. Hopefully Socialists all around the world can seize the opportunity to conduct revolutions once the American States becomes incredibly weak or outright gone.It’s absolutely hilarious because what the US has done in Ukraine has about sealed their fate it seems. They’re making Europe hate them, they’re driving China and Russia close, and they’re accelerating the US dollar no longer being the global reserve currency. Europe’s running out of energy not even a year into this, and they can still trade with China.
I legit cannot understand why US didn’t let Russia join NATO when Putin was ready to be a second Yeltsin. That single move would change everything. Now if there is a conflict Europe has zero Russian gas, and they can’t surround either Russia or China. What am I missing that the US ruling class seems to see? They obviously understood this at the time of the Sino-Soviet split.
The type of personality traits that capitalism naturally rewards with positions of power lesds to this exact sort of short-sighted, petulant incompetence. Capitalism does indeed slowly kill itself in this way.
Warning: oncoming mixed metaphors!
Another factor to consider is intra capitalist conflict. Within the capitalist class, there are actors who would sell their own mothers to make a quick profit. So if Raytheon can profit from the Ukraine war, at the expense of Walmart or a German steel manufacturer, it will do so.
Of course, there’s less room for intra capitalist conflict than ever, because BlackRock and vanguard seem to own everything. But there’s (1) too much to oversee to ensure consistency even between subsidiaries, and (2) capitalists are driven by the same contradictions that will bring capitalism tumbling down. There’s only so much to be done with internal planning before inherent contradictions become antagonistic.
E.g. if a German invests in Raytheon, etc, they’ll encourage arms sales even if it lowers the value of their investments in German industry. Because if not, their arms investments won’t yield the expected return. They might then try to sell their shares in the German factory and move their capital with the factory to the US. They might even plan for this in advance. But they’re firefighting contradictions that they don’t understand; because business as usual has worked so far (if not, they’d be in the pool of failed capitalists).
That, and drinking one’s own kool aid. Unlike during the late twentieth century, the dominant thinking is that history is over. Communism had it’s day. It was trialled and failed.
Marxists are ignored or not taken seriously. So there’s a consensus view about China that does not correlate to reality. It seems the CPC has been content to encourage this view. “Nothing to see here; we’re just interested in trade and keeping our trade routes open.”
Western ideological state apparatuses are happy to push the same message. 30+ years of end-of-history school-leavers and graduates means almost the whole working age population in the West does not understand BRICS, BRI, the petrodollar, or multiparity, to say the least. Decades worth of economics, sociologist, law, and politics PhDs who have never heard the phrase ‘political economy’ and / or who don’t know what it means if they have heard the term. How can anyone make good decisions with this level of ignorance?
The only people who would give a public counter narrative are the ignored Marxists. Secret services might know what’s up, but they’re ideologically confused. Plus, there is some separation between the state and the capitalists even if they’re all on the same team. So intelligence is not always passed on to the decision-makers.
There are too many chess pieces on the board that have gone unnoticed. China was a pawn till around 2010, when it sneaked right to the other side and became a queen. And it took another five years to catch anyone’s attention. Too late. And while the West is now focused on destroying China and Russia, other pieces are getting into place.
Most of the capitalists don’t even understand the rules of the game. Try talking about China or Russia objectively in academia. Nobody wants to hear it. There will be a lot of shocked Pikachu faces soon, as the ‘experts’ come up realise they were asleep at the wheel.
The west had been opening itself up to a classic broadside. Very few people have seen it coming. And the implications of Ukraine are just the first effects of Western capital walking straight into a booby trap / quicksand / off a cliff / name your metaphor (the more mixed, the better!).
I tend to align somewhere close to this. It seems like the Chinese people are just far far better educated, and there are 1.6 billion of them, compared to 350 million USians. This gives them a much much larger pool of talent going into every sector of society. AND their society is much more organized for ready collaboration amongst people.
These two things are an absolutely colossal advantage that China has that simply cannot be replicated under American material conditions. In other words, if things continue as they are - like had the US continued to ignore China, or isn’t able to gain some additional huge advantage - Chinese victory is basically inevitable.
This is why the US plays to this strength so often (tech advantage), because strategically it is right to do so. The US is also trying to dismantle Russia to surround China as well, which reflects its other strength, NATOs geographical positioning. Then of course there is Taiwan, dominated by a fascist government, right on Chinas doorstep.
Once the general level of technology in China surpasses the US things will REALLY start to look different, as that will be one major prong of the US offensive that will be strategically inert.
Do you think more countries will become socialist if China wins
Considering the sheer amount of countries that American specifically destroyed socialism in? Absolutely. If a socialist force–even a passive one, although I think China is slowly pivoting to be more assertive for itself today and (hopefully) in the future its ideological allies like the USSR once was–is the dominant power of the world instead of the U.S., socialism will sweep the world.
That being said, the anticommunist propaganda U.S. has pumped across the world for a century has certainly done damage in even the most poor countries. But even this massive psyop will not be enough alone to stop the human species which has overwhelmingly showed an impatience for socialism only stifled by the insidious meddling of the U.S.
i think the chinese sealed their victory like twenty years ago, as long as we avoid any nuclear incidents. i’m pretty optimistic about the long-term future outside of concerns about who is going to end up in control of america’s nukes when it collapses.
if the US ends up balkanizing, which seems like the probable end result to me, it’s almost inevitable that without some kind of huge foreign intervention nuclear weapons are going to end up in the hands of someone who will use them.
while obviously the world has a bumpy road ahead that’s the one roadblock i see with no plausible way (that i can think of) around it.
We will be the future partisans working with socialists from around the world to capture said WMDs 😎
This would be a pretty sick plot for a TV or novel series.
TRUE!
I feel like Cold War’s sequel is just gonna end up finalizing the World War trilogy instead. I think we already know how the third World War will end.
That being said, I imagine both parties to be tremendously destroyed, except I imagine only the west/global north to fall into Barbarianism/being turned into a Mad Max world. The global south will do just fine, or be mildly affected.
I hope that doesn’t happen
Apocalypse is certainly always a possibility while WMDs exist, and even without their help I’m sure the West (particularly America) is in danger of near-civilizational collapse if left to its own devices. However, I think the many more optimistic futures are just as likely. I think a better world may be possible without total destruction, although evil forces of this world will certainly lash out as they feel their time in power coming to an end.
Probability is very, very high. I certainly hope so.
However if I were alive, an adult, a communist in the west in the mid 80s and you asked me if I thought the Soviet Union was going to collapse soon I would have said no. If you had asked that hypothetical me if I thought that the Soviet Union was likely to gradually surpass the US and eventually win sometime in the 21st century I probably would have said yes.
China is not in the state that the Soviet Union was in the 70s, 80s, even 60s. Revisionism, corruption and opportunism /seem/ to outsiders to be something they’ve tackled and prevented from rotting away at the whole (though it did get bad for a while so it’s impossible to say how much rot remains under the floorboards). Certainly they haven’t gone the denouncement route Kruschev went with Stalin with Mao which would be a bad sign. Certainly Xi is a committed, intelligent, disciplined communist who is not only leading but writing the theory as he leads in practice. They’ve also seem to outsiders to have preserved proper ideological education of their armed forces and a not insignificant amount of the population which is important for preventing a successful coup by capitalist interests.
However barring something unexpected happening to the US, their road ahead is still a long and fraught one. Even if they succeed in overtaking the US technologically, economically, and begin helping to free the global south entirely from the west, the west has enough momentum and capital to stumble on for decades more past a theoretical weakening in the 2030s or 2040s. In that time much could happen.
The west I think is going ahead with partial decoupling. Oh they have no intent of moving fireworks or plastic McDonalds toy production out of China but I think they’re going to prevent sale of any software or high or even medium technology (think home networking equipment, cell phones, perhaps even gaming equipment, but probably not toasters or microwaves) in the west. This will probably drive up prices but the capitalists would be happy to set a lower expected quality of life for the proles in the imperial core.
I do think they may stage something in the straits with Taiwan to push the decoupling issue once China is forced to respond with force, to force Europe to go along with sanctions which in effect force the high-tech decoupling though the rest of the world probably will vote them down at the UN so it’ll be a western embargo. But as we’ve seen with Russia those cause a lot of problems, they can shut down your shipping via stopping insuring of your ships and many other hard to perceive weaponizations of western positions which may force parts of the world to for some time not purchase Chinese high tech goods even if they want to. It depends on how rapidly this happens and how quickly Russia/China push for insulation against these types of attacks and implement it.
Among the biggest things would be if Russia were subordinated to western capital or joined the western capital block against China. It seems doubtful that can happen this decade given all that’s happened with Ukraine but it’s hard to say what the 2030s hold as they’re applying quite a bit of pressure to Russia and I don’t think they’ll let up on that and sanctions soon.
These things largely lengthen the road though, they don’t stop China so much as delay and hope in that delay they can coup it from within, fragment it, surpass and isolate it to crush it. They could easily add decades to the life the west has in it and global capitalism if played well.
My biggest worry is nuclear war. I’ve voiced before I think the west wants to take out China and wishes they had a pawn state they could get to nuke China for them in a way where China doesn’t retaliate against the west and only obliterates their pawn. That and their backs being up against a wall and nuking China to prevent the proles winning while all the capitalists flee to New Zealand ahead of time (one clever way of doing this without anyone noticing by the way would be holding some sort of conference there as no one would notice anything interesting about such a situation).
I agree that a Russian betrayal/coup/etc. or nuclear war seems to be the most threatening possibilities that would hinder a Chinese/world socialist victory. I also wonder what will happen in places like India and Africa.
I would like to think the good guys are a step ahead of the psychopaths who might try and press Western nukes, I could see this being a big part of corralling a dying West in the future, e.g. nuke shields.
I assume the US will continue to try and bribe, navigate puppets into place, conduct coups, fund terrorist groups in Africa to keep it under their thumb and/or destabilized.
Hopefully as the feedback loop of their fall worsens their ability to do so will continue to wane.
I just had a kind of epiphany. The lost weapons shipments for Ukraine for Gladio 2. They are going to divert large numbers of them to attack the Belt and Road initiative as well as of course supplying terrorists to destabilize Africa.
It’s perfect because Ukraine is a corrupt as fuck country, they can blame the Ukro-nazis and whatever other parties its laundered through and claim it’s not their fault a US-made HIMARs system took out a BRI rail bridge worth 20 million dollars while killing the Chinese engineers on it for final inspection.
They can’t obviously openly attack China or openly supply western weapons into the hands of groups who are going to do so but by doing it this way they can claim it wasn’t even indirectly their fault but the fault of some corruption and the Russians and so on and so forth.
Terrorism is the cheapest way to derail the BRI and keep countries out of China’s sphere once other measures and threats have failed (they already have and we’re witnessing it in real time as is US intelligence with the re-alignment happening as a result of US sanctions because of Ukraine). They hope to 1. destroy such projects. 2. cost China money, 3. bog China down in costly wars far afield with radicalized and armed to the teeth extremists to have any hope of completing extended BRI.
Yes
if the US collapses before it can nuke the world in a fury like a petulant child turning over the game board when losing, then yes.
otherwise literally everyone loses.
define winning. will china go the way of the ussr? of course not, and that alone puts it in a far better position.
Do a bunch of leftists think a leftist country will win? …Um, nah bro. I think the other team just has a better lineup and their training has been on point. Not this year, maybe the next /s 😂😂
Its hard to tell.
Its clear that they’ve at least laid the groundwork for their challenge against American hegemony very well so far; slowly prying away trade dominance over the third world while remaining just close enough to the US through their trade relations to dissuade any attempts to break them up earlier, back when their national situation wasn’t as firmly secured. Now they seem to be closing in on all economic fronts; industrial production, international development, technological innovation etc… Given 20 more years of this, they may well leave the US eating their dust.
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