Probability is very, very high. I certainly hope so.
However if I were alive, an adult, a communist in the west in the mid 80s and you asked me if I thought the Soviet Union was going to collapse soon I would have said no. If you had asked that hypothetical me if I thought that the Soviet Union was likely to gradually surpass the US and eventually win sometime in the 21st century I probably would have said yes.
China is not in the state that the Soviet Union was in the 70s, 80s, even 60s. Revisionism, corruption and opportunism /seem/ to outsiders to be something they’ve tackled and prevented from rotting away at the whole (though it did get bad for a while so it’s impossible to say how much rot remains under the floorboards). Certainly they haven’t gone the denouncement route Kruschev went with Stalin with Mao which would be a bad sign. Certainly Xi is a committed, intelligent, disciplined communist who is not only leading but writing the theory as he leads in practice. They’ve also seem to outsiders to have preserved proper ideological education of their armed forces and a not insignificant amount of the population which is important for preventing a successful coup by capitalist interests.
However barring something unexpected happening to the US, their road ahead is still a long and fraught one. Even if they succeed in overtaking the US technologically, economically, and begin helping to free the global south entirely from the west, the west has enough momentum and capital to stumble on for decades more past a theoretical weakening in the 2030s or 2040s. In that time much could happen.
The west I think is going ahead with partial decoupling. Oh they have no intent of moving fireworks or plastic McDonalds toy production out of China but I think they’re going to prevent sale of any software or high or even medium technology (think home networking equipment, cell phones, perhaps even gaming equipment, but probably not toasters or microwaves) in the west. This will probably drive up prices but the capitalists would be happy to set a lower expected quality of life for the proles in the imperial core.
I do think they may stage something in the straits with Taiwan to push the decoupling issue once China is forced to respond with force, to force Europe to go along with sanctions which in effect force the high-tech decoupling though the rest of the world probably will vote them down at the UN so it’ll be a western embargo. But as we’ve seen with Russia those cause a lot of problems, they can shut down your shipping via stopping insuring of your ships and many other hard to perceive weaponizations of western positions which may force parts of the world to for some time not purchase Chinese high tech goods even if they want to. It depends on how rapidly this happens and how quickly Russia/China push for insulation against these types of attacks and implement it.
Among the biggest things would be if Russia were subordinated to western capital or joined the western capital block against China. It seems doubtful that can happen this decade given all that’s happened with Ukraine but it’s hard to say what the 2030s hold as they’re applying quite a bit of pressure to Russia and I don’t think they’ll let up on that and sanctions soon.
These things largely lengthen the road though, they don’t stop China so much as delay and hope in that delay they can coup it from within, fragment it, surpass and isolate it to crush it. They could easily add decades to the life the west has in it and global capitalism if played well.
My biggest worry is nuclear war. I’ve voiced before I think the west wants to take out China and wishes they had a pawn state they could get to nuke China for them in a way where China doesn’t retaliate against the west and only obliterates their pawn. That and their backs being up against a wall and nuking China to prevent the proles winning while all the capitalists flee to New Zealand ahead of time (one clever way of doing this without anyone noticing by the way would be holding some sort of conference there as no one would notice anything interesting about such a situation).
I agree that a Russian betrayal/coup/etc. or nuclear war seems to be the most threatening possibilities that would hinder a Chinese/world socialist victory. I also wonder what will happen in places like India and Africa.
I would like to think the good guys are a step ahead of the psychopaths who might try and press Western nukes, I could see this being a big part of corralling a dying West in the future, e.g. nuke shields.
I assume the US will continue to try and bribe, navigate puppets into place, conduct coups, fund terrorist groups in Africa to keep it under their thumb and/or destabilized.
I just had a kind of epiphany. The lost weapons shipments for Ukraine for Gladio 2. They are going to divert large numbers of them to attack the Belt and Road initiative as well as of course supplying terrorists to destabilize Africa.
It’s perfect because Ukraine is a corrupt as fuck country, they can blame the Ukro-nazis and whatever other parties its laundered through and claim it’s not their fault a US-made HIMARs system took out a BRI rail bridge worth 20 million dollars while killing the Chinese engineers on it for final inspection.
They can’t obviously openly attack China or openly supply western weapons into the hands of groups who are going to do so but by doing it this way they can claim it wasn’t even indirectly their fault but the fault of some corruption and the Russians and so on and so forth.
Terrorism is the cheapest way to derail the BRI and keep countries out of China’s sphere once other measures and threats have failed (they already have and we’re witnessing it in real time as is US intelligence with the re-alignment happening as a result of US sanctions because of Ukraine). They hope to 1. destroy such projects. 2. cost China money, 3. bog China down in costly wars far afield with radicalized and armed to the teeth extremists to have any hope of completing extended BRI.
Probability is very, very high. I certainly hope so.
However if I were alive, an adult, a communist in the west in the mid 80s and you asked me if I thought the Soviet Union was going to collapse soon I would have said no. If you had asked that hypothetical me if I thought that the Soviet Union was likely to gradually surpass the US and eventually win sometime in the 21st century I probably would have said yes.
China is not in the state that the Soviet Union was in the 70s, 80s, even 60s. Revisionism, corruption and opportunism /seem/ to outsiders to be something they’ve tackled and prevented from rotting away at the whole (though it did get bad for a while so it’s impossible to say how much rot remains under the floorboards). Certainly they haven’t gone the denouncement route Kruschev went with Stalin with Mao which would be a bad sign. Certainly Xi is a committed, intelligent, disciplined communist who is not only leading but writing the theory as he leads in practice. They’ve also seem to outsiders to have preserved proper ideological education of their armed forces and a not insignificant amount of the population which is important for preventing a successful coup by capitalist interests.
However barring something unexpected happening to the US, their road ahead is still a long and fraught one. Even if they succeed in overtaking the US technologically, economically, and begin helping to free the global south entirely from the west, the west has enough momentum and capital to stumble on for decades more past a theoretical weakening in the 2030s or 2040s. In that time much could happen.
The west I think is going ahead with partial decoupling. Oh they have no intent of moving fireworks or plastic McDonalds toy production out of China but I think they’re going to prevent sale of any software or high or even medium technology (think home networking equipment, cell phones, perhaps even gaming equipment, but probably not toasters or microwaves) in the west. This will probably drive up prices but the capitalists would be happy to set a lower expected quality of life for the proles in the imperial core.
I do think they may stage something in the straits with Taiwan to push the decoupling issue once China is forced to respond with force, to force Europe to go along with sanctions which in effect force the high-tech decoupling though the rest of the world probably will vote them down at the UN so it’ll be a western embargo. But as we’ve seen with Russia those cause a lot of problems, they can shut down your shipping via stopping insuring of your ships and many other hard to perceive weaponizations of western positions which may force parts of the world to for some time not purchase Chinese high tech goods even if they want to. It depends on how rapidly this happens and how quickly Russia/China push for insulation against these types of attacks and implement it.
Among the biggest things would be if Russia were subordinated to western capital or joined the western capital block against China. It seems doubtful that can happen this decade given all that’s happened with Ukraine but it’s hard to say what the 2030s hold as they’re applying quite a bit of pressure to Russia and I don’t think they’ll let up on that and sanctions soon.
These things largely lengthen the road though, they don’t stop China so much as delay and hope in that delay they can coup it from within, fragment it, surpass and isolate it to crush it. They could easily add decades to the life the west has in it and global capitalism if played well.
My biggest worry is nuclear war. I’ve voiced before I think the west wants to take out China and wishes they had a pawn state they could get to nuke China for them in a way where China doesn’t retaliate against the west and only obliterates their pawn. That and their backs being up against a wall and nuking China to prevent the proles winning while all the capitalists flee to New Zealand ahead of time (one clever way of doing this without anyone noticing by the way would be holding some sort of conference there as no one would notice anything interesting about such a situation).
I agree that a Russian betrayal/coup/etc. or nuclear war seems to be the most threatening possibilities that would hinder a Chinese/world socialist victory. I also wonder what will happen in places like India and Africa.
I would like to think the good guys are a step ahead of the psychopaths who might try and press Western nukes, I could see this being a big part of corralling a dying West in the future, e.g. nuke shields.
I assume the US will continue to try and bribe, navigate puppets into place, conduct coups, fund terrorist groups in Africa to keep it under their thumb and/or destabilized.
Hopefully as the feedback loop of their fall worsens their ability to do so will continue to wane.
I just had a kind of epiphany. The lost weapons shipments for Ukraine for Gladio 2. They are going to divert large numbers of them to attack the Belt and Road initiative as well as of course supplying terrorists to destabilize Africa.
It’s perfect because Ukraine is a corrupt as fuck country, they can blame the Ukro-nazis and whatever other parties its laundered through and claim it’s not their fault a US-made HIMARs system took out a BRI rail bridge worth 20 million dollars while killing the Chinese engineers on it for final inspection.
They can’t obviously openly attack China or openly supply western weapons into the hands of groups who are going to do so but by doing it this way they can claim it wasn’t even indirectly their fault but the fault of some corruption and the Russians and so on and so forth.
Terrorism is the cheapest way to derail the BRI and keep countries out of China’s sphere once other measures and threats have failed (they already have and we’re witnessing it in real time as is US intelligence with the re-alignment happening as a result of US sanctions because of Ukraine). They hope to 1. destroy such projects. 2. cost China money, 3. bog China down in costly wars far afield with radicalized and armed to the teeth extremists to have any hope of completing extended BRI.