Before Ukraine it was a bit hard to tell, now I think things have cleared up quite a bit. Collective west is having a hell of a time taking on Russia, and China has a far bigger industrial base. I expect that Ukraine is going to collapse the economy in Europe, and Europe will in turn drag US down with it.
Meanwhile, China will be the economic centre of BRICS, and the rest of the world will align around it. Isolated and depleted west has no real chance against the rest of the world pulling together.
I’m not so sure about this. One of the knock-on effects of the Ukraine conflict raising European energy prices is that European (particularly German) industry is relocating to the US for its lower input costs. After what transpired with Nord Stream 2 being destroyed by the UK under the US’s orders, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that they were seeking to keep Germany from lowering its energy prices to maintain this migration. (The simpler, more obvious reason is to keep Germany from negotiating into neutrality, but the reasons aren’t mutually exclusive or even conflicting.)
I think it’s less a case of Europe dragging down the US so much as the US appropriating Europe’s secondary industries to make up for its declining tertiary sector. A sign of Empire in decline, yes, but the US isn’t in danger of suffering as much as Europe.
It’s figuratively the US ship shoring up its leaks by taking pieces off the sinking EU ship
Another factor is that US isn’t the only game in town. I expect that a lot of industry will move to Asia, and to China in particular. US simply can’t compete with China when it comes to industrial production capacity. China is also a huge market and the economy there is much more stable than in US.
Basically, trying to cannibalize your allies is incredibly short sighted, and it shows lack of vision in US leadership.
It’s going to be difficult given that Europe had higher purchasing power per capita than South America. Also, presumably they are already exporting what they can to South America. When there is a niche for making profit, then some business will fill it. If there was potential for significant growth in South American then companies would already be going after it.
Exactly. The likeliest response to a collapse in European consumption is a crisis of overproduction. This will of course have a cascade effect, resulting in myriad other economic crises, culminating in balance of payments crises, the economic equivalent of a heart attack. Each national crisis is in turn an opportunity for its competitors, circling like vultures to seize anything of value from the country in its moment of economic weakness. This, I think, is where the specific nature of the EU’s loose confederation of nations will cause calamity; there is serious disunity between the national bourgeois of the various member states, particularly France and Germany. In the event economic crisis hits Europe there won’t be a truly coordinated, unified response. Instead, individual member states and their ruling classes will jostle for advantage with each other. This has already been heralded by the hoarding of PPE by individual states when supplies were limited in the initial stint of the pandemic, when they left Italy to languish.
Completely agree, something like EU can only be functional in times of growth and prosperity. Once you end up in a situation where there aren’t enough resources to go around then countries that are better off are going to pull up the ladders. We’re already starting to see that happening, and political tensions rising between EU members. It’s going to get a lot worse once the full effects of the energy crisis hit.
Before Ukraine it was a bit hard to tell, now I think things have cleared up quite a bit. Collective west is having a hell of a time taking on Russia, and China has a far bigger industrial base. I expect that Ukraine is going to collapse the economy in Europe, and Europe will in turn drag US down with it.
Meanwhile, China will be the economic centre of BRICS, and the rest of the world will align around it. Isolated and depleted west has no real chance against the rest of the world pulling together.
I’m not so sure about this. One of the knock-on effects of the Ukraine conflict raising European energy prices is that European (particularly German) industry is relocating to the US for its lower input costs. After what transpired with Nord Stream 2 being destroyed by the UK under the US’s orders, it’s not outside the realm of possibility that they were seeking to keep Germany from lowering its energy prices to maintain this migration. (The simpler, more obvious reason is to keep Germany from negotiating into neutrality, but the reasons aren’t mutually exclusive or even conflicting.)
I think it’s less a case of Europe dragging down the US so much as the US appropriating Europe’s secondary industries to make up for its declining tertiary sector. A sign of Empire in decline, yes, but the US isn’t in danger of suffering as much as Europe.
It’s figuratively the US ship shoring up its leaks by taking pieces off the sinking EU ship
I do think that blowing up Nord Stream was at least in part intended to force Germany into deindustrialization.
The problem for US is that Europe is the biggest export market, and if European economy collapses that’s necessarily going to have a knock-on effect on US economy. U.S. goods exports to the EU 27 in 2019 totaled $267.6 billion, up 6.2 percent ($15.7 billion) from 2018 and up 53 percent from 2009. U.S. exports to the EU 27 account for 16.3 percent of overall U.S. exports in 2019.
Another factor is that US isn’t the only game in town. I expect that a lot of industry will move to Asia, and to China in particular. US simply can’t compete with China when it comes to industrial production capacity. China is also a huge market and the economy there is much more stable than in US.
Basically, trying to cannibalize your allies is incredibly short sighted, and it shows lack of vision in US leadership.
The US has never been known for having much long term thought, tbf.
very true
How do you see this happening?
Most of US exports go to Europe, if European economy crashes that’s going to cause export market in US to collapse https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east/europe/european-union
Oh that is interesting, I was not aware. Thanks! Do you think they’ll be able to reroute to South America?
It’s going to be difficult given that Europe had higher purchasing power per capita than South America. Also, presumably they are already exporting what they can to South America. When there is a niche for making profit, then some business will fill it. If there was potential for significant growth in South American then companies would already be going after it.
Exactly. The likeliest response to a collapse in European consumption is a crisis of overproduction. This will of course have a cascade effect, resulting in myriad other economic crises, culminating in balance of payments crises, the economic equivalent of a heart attack. Each national crisis is in turn an opportunity for its competitors, circling like vultures to seize anything of value from the country in its moment of economic weakness. This, I think, is where the specific nature of the EU’s loose confederation of nations will cause calamity; there is serious disunity between the national bourgeois of the various member states, particularly France and Germany. In the event economic crisis hits Europe there won’t be a truly coordinated, unified response. Instead, individual member states and their ruling classes will jostle for advantage with each other. This has already been heralded by the hoarding of PPE by individual states when supplies were limited in the initial stint of the pandemic, when they left Italy to languish.
Completely agree, something like EU can only be functional in times of growth and prosperity. Once you end up in a situation where there aren’t enough resources to go around then countries that are better off are going to pull up the ladders. We’re already starting to see that happening, and political tensions rising between EU members. It’s going to get a lot worse once the full effects of the energy crisis hit.