• redtea
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    11 months ago

    If it wasn’t collapsing, it wouldn’t be in the red.

  • Aria
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    11 months ago

    I think when the highest quality most respected China collapse preachers say collapse, they mean entering a Japan style stagnation. I’m not sure, because that would require me to consume a lot of China collapse preacher content, but I think that’s how they can justify the narrative across different levels of seriousness.

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆OP
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      11 months ago

      Even that narrative is fundamentally flawed because Japan’s stagnation in the 80s was a direct result of US imposing Plaza Accords on Japan. There is no opportunity for US to do the same with China.

    • Gucci_Minh [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      11 months ago

      If China can manage to turn its industries and markets to an internal production/consumption model and reduce its reliance on being an export economy, it would be much better off even without the massive growth. Growth will have to stop at some point, and the focus will be on stability, since China hasn’t made any indications it’ll try to fuel growth through imperialism like western economies have. Japan style stagnation would be not so terrible if your society is socialist.

        • Gucci_Minh [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          11 months ago

          Even with the current model of state directed capitalism, the amount of investment into social services and poverty reduction already shame the west. China isn’t yet in a position to press the communism button, but once the threat of America and it’s puppets decline there may well be a pivot.

          • Des [she/her, they/them]@hexbear.net
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            11 months ago

            i think america is the main reason they still have shitty work conditions. i mean they still are better then the U.S. but it’s sort of the inverse of the U.S.-Soviet competition over working conditions

            so either way America has got to go

  • Munrock ☭
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    11 months ago

    If you hold that graph up to your ear, you can actually hear the liberals going “yes but actually…”

      • Tankiedesantski [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        11 months ago

        “How will the Free Market work if you don’t assure the largest players that they’ll be able to socialize their losses?! Read BASIC ECONOMICS!”

      • RedClouds
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        11 months ago

        Shoot, I don’t have it offhand but you should send the Ben Norton video back, where he talked about how China is letting their property sector fail in order to shift their economy to being focused on green energy and tech.

        As well, he mentions how morally corrupt it is to use property as an investment and how shifting where your investments are is actually a better idea.

  • Flamingoaks
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    11 months ago

    yeah so many propagandists point to the slow down in economic growth from “socialist god” levels to “economic miracle” levels and are like china is falling apart they are due for a depression any day

    • Muad'DibberMA
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      11 months ago

      Gotta have a reason to keep those Gordon Chang books on the shelf.

  • TheLepidopterists [he/him]@hexbear.net
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    11 months ago

    Lmao at Germany. Imagine letting America completely demolish your economy like this and still following them around like a dog. “Um it was probably Polish revanchist terrorists or something that blew up the pipeline, definitely not the one actor in the vicinity that had the means and motive to do it.”

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆OP
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      11 months ago

      My fav part is how members of parliament in Germany asked to see the details on the Nord Stream investigation at one point, and the government was like no we can’t make this public because it’ll negatively affect our security. 🤡

  • QueerCommie
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    11 months ago

    Tbf China’s economy is less decayed (there’s less surplus capital), but that’s not a point for capitalism.

  • Minotaur@lemm.ee
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    11 months ago

    As an aside - anyone know what’s going on in Germany? I was under the impression they were doing things pretty well over there

    • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆OP
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      11 months ago

      Much of German economy was supported by farming and manufacturing sectors. These were predicated on getting cheap energy from Russia to stay competitive. At the start of the war, German government provided subsidies to offset the shock of energy prices shooting up. The idea was that Russian economy would collapse quickly due to western sanctions, and then everything would go back to normal.

      Now that subsidies are running out, Germany can’t compete with manufacturing in places like China where there energy is much cheaper, and farmers are literally coming out with pitchforks because they can’t make ends meet.

      • Minotaur@lemm.ee
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        11 months ago

        Very interesting. Thank you for the response! I’m a somewhat ignorant westerner so I always think of Germany as being very much a high end manufacturing and sciences based country - making fairly complex industrial machinery and precision tools and such. I didn’t know they relied on Russia so heavily, though I suppose it makes sense given its location.

        Unfortunate that they didn’t take some notes from Frances book and get heavy into Nuclear.

        • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆OP
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          11 months ago

          Indeed, if Germany invested in alternative energy first then decoupling from Russia wouldn’t have been such a big problem. For some weird reason German greens absolutely hate nuclear though.

          • CicadaSpectre
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            11 months ago

            There’s a liberal trend in green politics here in the US that hates nuclear energy, also. They tend to justify the view by only ever bringing up the dangers of nuclear power, and arguments about nuclear waste (ignoring the fact we keep getting better in both these areas). I’m willing to bet the German greens hold the same views.

            • ☆ Yσɠƚԋσʂ ☆OP
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              11 months ago

              That’s my impression as well. It’s just kind of become a cult at this point with no rational thought behind it.

            • ShiningWing
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              11 months ago

              They tend to justify the view by only ever bringing up the dangers of nuclear power, and arguments about nuclear waste (ignoring the fact we keep getting better in both these areas).

              I’ve even seen people like that on here before when the topic’s come up too, it’s an annoyingly common sentiment

              • CicadaSpectre
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                11 months ago

                I’m not surprised. I’ve seen a few green politics opinions here that seem idealistic or moralistic to me.

  • Cethin@lemmy.zip
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    11 months ago

    One data point doesn’t make a trend. The Chinese economy isn’t collapsed, but the rate of growth of GDP for China has been negative (rate of growth, it’s still positive growth) since at least 2012 from what I can see. The US rate of growth is fairly static over the same time (a slightly positive rate of growth, but not much), but about half the value of China’s.

    Don’t cherry pick data. It’s not useful.

    • space_comrade [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      11 months ago

      Don’t cherry pick data. It’s not useful.

      You’re the one doing mental gymnastics here. “Oh yeah the Chinese economy is growing every year but it’s not GROWING growing, you see if you jumble the numbers a bit more you can actually get a negative number” fuck off dude.

      • idkmybffjoeysteel [he/him]@hexbear.net
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        11 months ago

        using differential equations to prove China is failing lol

        also, a lower % one year than the year before could also indicate relatively stable absolute levels of growth

      • Cethin@lemmy.zip
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        11 months ago

        I’m not jumbling numbers. Just look at a chart of GDP over time, or easier GDP change over time. It’s easy to see. I’m not saying China is collapsing, but the growth is slowing. There’s no need to make things up. It’s still growing faster than almost anyone else.

        • Aquilae [he/him, they/them]@hexbear.net
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          11 months ago

          Well yeah. This is clearly just a post making fun of all the “China is collapsing” shit you see in liberal media and spaces when the truth continues to be the opposite. Probably not aimed at you if you understand the nuances.

        • PostingInternational
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          11 months ago

          Yeah look at the numbers why don’t you. IMF you are using predicts G7 will do far worse than China. In fact the forecast for the US in 2024 is just 1%.

          So you might have made a point about global slowdown where China is still outperforming everyone, but you chose something else…

    • Orcocracy [comrade/them]@hexbear.net
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      11 months ago

      Comparing the most recently available GDP growth data for one year across multiple major economies : cherry picking

      Wondering why data from several decades ago (during the height of rapid massive industrialization that countries tend to only ever do once in their entire history) wasn’t included : not cherry picking

      • Cethin@lemmy.zip
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        11 months ago

        One year is meaningless. A few years ago China’s economy did much worse (covid), so someone could pick that year and make things up. You need to look at a trend for it to mean anything.

    • redtea
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      11 months ago

      That’s only a problem for those who demand exponential growth. And your assumptions are based on the unsustainable model of western imperialism; as China implements it’s green energy, transport, automated agriculture, and housing policies, those sectors won’t need to keep ‘growing’ as they do in capitalist states to prop up GDP. Even if it’s right that if the slowing rate of growth leads to a net GDP shrinkage, it doesn’t portend collapse.

      That’s not counting the effect of BRICS+ and the BRI on interpreting GDP. You don’t need such a high GDP when you cooperate with your neighbours, when your GDP isn’t a measure of how much you bully your neighbours and oppress your foreign and domestic workforce.

      Many have repeatedly and outstandingly wrongly claimed either bluntly or in what they think is ‘clever’ subtleness that China is about to collapse. Do you really want to be in that crowd when the music stops?

      • Cethin@lemmy.zip
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        11 months ago

        That’s only a problem for those who demand exponential growth.

        Dude, GDP only matters for that. I’m not the one who started talking about GDP. Either this thread is useless because the measure (GDP) is useless, or it’s perfectly fine to talk about the context of what the threads about. Either way, it’s the OP you should complain about.

        Anyway, China’s GDP is growing at about double the US’s. It doesn’t matter though, right? It’s growing at a negative rate, but it’s still growing faster than almost anyone else, because China('s government) cares about GDP, even though GDP doesn’t help the average person.

    • Tankiedesantski [he/him]@hexbear.net
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      11 months ago

      Even the most orthodox of economists almost universally agree that growth diminishes as a country becomes more developed since the low hanging fruit of development is exhausted and more capital and resources are necessary for the same amounts of growth.

      China’s growth rate trending down over time is no more an indication of any sort of stagnation or collapse than one year of growth is an indication of economic strength.

      Ironically you’re not doing substantially less cherry picking than you’re accusing OP of by engaging in shallow single factor analysis.

        • Tankiedesantski [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          11 months ago

          If that is exactly what you meant to say then I suggest you put more thought into how you phrase things because that’s not the meaning I extracted from your post and I don’t think I’m alone in that based on the other responses here.

          Furthermore, there is no such thing as an objectively “reasonable” rate of growth for a country since the physical, social, and economic factors behind growth are different for each country.

          • Cethin@lemmy.zip
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            11 months ago

            No, there isn’t a “reasonable” rate of growth. Of course. It is just what it is. GDP isn’t even useful to an average person. I was only commenting on the OP because it’s misleading (on purpose) and there’s no need for that.

        • QueerCommie
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          11 months ago

          True, it’s just basic tendency for the rate of profit to fall.

    • PostingInternational
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      11 months ago

      This is literally the GDP growth rate. I don’t think you know what you are talking about, but please point us to a definition of the indicator you are talking about as well as to the comparison by country.

      • HakFoo@lemmy.sdf.org
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        11 months ago

        I think they’re comparing the 2nd derivative of GDP; the growth rate is the 1st derivative.

        The claim is roughly:

        The US is growing slowly, but doing so at a consistent pace. It will keep growing 2% indefinitely.

        China is growing faster now, but the rate is slowing year over year. They will grow 5% this year, 4% next year,… The implication is that they’ll eventually settle domewhere below the US for (preferred boogeyman reason)

        Of course the premise is low value speculation, but the math concepts can be parsed.

        • PeeOnYou [he/him]
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          11 months ago

          yeah they’re talking about the rate of the rate of growth… which maybe helps them with cognitive dissonance by still being able to find some negative thing about why China still seems to be doing just fine

        • Cethin@lemmy.zip
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          11 months ago

          The US is growing slowly, but doing so at a consistent pace. It will keep growing 2% indefinitely.

          I’m not claiming this. Nothing can.

          China is growing faster now, but the rate is slowing year over year. They will grow 5% this year, 4% next year,… The implication is that they’ll eventually settle domewhere below the US for (preferred boogeyman reason)

          Pretty much this, without the boogeyman reason. I’m not claiming a reason. I don’t even think it’ll be below US levels necessarily, but it won’t keep growing as fast as it was. The trend is pretty steady, for the US and China, though things of course change and it’s probably logarithmic I’d guess, not linear. It’ll steady out somewhere. (Edit: Well, it’ll steady out per capita probably, which is part of why GDP is so useless. It’s not measured per capita.)

          https://www.statista.com/statistics/263616/gross-domestic-product-gdp-growth-rate-in-china/

          There’s no need to make things up. Either China (and any other country) can stand on its own or it can’t. People shouldn’t be mislead. Now, I don’t think GDP is that useful, but I didn’t start the thread about GDP.

    • moujikman [none/use name]@hexbear.net
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      11 months ago

      The criteria for the GDP measure changed in 2009 which put a heavier weight on R&D capitalization. This makes it an unfair comparison since China economy is mostly manufacturing-based. The fact that their growth rate is so high despite this is very notable.

        • CloutAtlas [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          11 months ago

          I don’t think you understand how the data is being calculated. Give me a second

          So imagine you’re drawing a graph

          On the Y axis, you have growth in %

          On the X axis, you have time.

          Assuming you start Jan 1st 2023 with 0%

          And the only other point of data is it’s at 4.2% on October 1st

          And you want to predict where that line goes to on December 31st. You would use a ruler to make an estimate to where the line would go, right? Like there’s no reason to assume it would rise from 0% to 4.2% in 9 months then stagnate for 3 months, right?

          Do you define that as inflating the numbers? This Statistic graph has more in depth methodology that also estimated over 5% growth

          It just kinda seems like you came into the thread with an axe to grind

            • wopazoo [he/him]@hexbear.net
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              11 months ago

              SOVIET DICTATOR “joe” biden is literally going to fukk ur mum like he FUCKS AMERICA!!!

              be scared. i have received news that “an-tifa” super soldiers (???) are heading to your house through SECRET HAMAS TUNNELS

              is this your last chnace to flee the countrY???

        • CloutAtlas [he/him]@hexbear.net
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          11 months ago

          It feels like you’ve been on Reddit for too long where no pro-China posts get upvoted, so you assume that’s the case for the rest of the internet.

          Like it’s obviously bots, the CPC is paying money to host complex AI to argue with Redditors because they made U/spez fuck with the Reddit API in 2023 so all these sleeper bots from 2020 in a fringe leftist Reddit alternative with a fraction of the users.

          Btw have you ever heard of the concept of Occam’s razor?

                • Omegamint [comrade/them, doe/deer]@hexbear.net
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                  11 months ago

                  You took the time to mull on it and then came back and edited this post, which I’m pretty sure was just the same very over used emoji you’ve plastered all over this thread, and you really think this proves I’m the one seething here?

                  Cope, loser.

                • wopazoo [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                  11 months ago

                  Fascinating how all you are capable of saying in response to that whole comment is to think I am doing a bit when I mention I have two degrees.

                  No, its not a bit.

                  I seriously doubt anyone here in a chapo reddit could actually make a meaningful economic or political argument at this point.

                  oh sorry did I say reddit? I couldn’t tell I wasn’t on it what with the utter lack of meaningful or interesting discussion, and preponderance of memey edgy troll posters.

                  As usual, the cosplaying tankies in a ‘leftist’ community are amazingly hostile and disrespectful to anyone who says they are an anarchist.

                  I had been able to post for a week or so on another chapo reddit /until/ it became unable to avoid the astounding hypocrisy and wilful blindness that online MLs have regarding the horrible things done by authoritarian societies in the name of communism.

                  Good riddance to you idiot trolls.

                  Its baffling to me that chapo communities are nearly entirely ML edgelords. The chapo crew never suck off and worship Chinese Style ‘Communism’, but for some reason seemingly all online chapo communities are based around this principle.

                • wopazoo [he/him]@hexbear.net
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                  11 months ago

                  Holy shit, I’m literally shaking right now. I told my gf once and for all to meet at Wendy’s for a debate-date. With all that Destiny had taught me, I knew that I would easily destroy her leftist delusions. Capitalism vs communism in the marketplace of ideas. The first thing I did was bring out my Iphone 11 and show her the wikipedia article for “the Holodomor”. I started counting the causalities. That’s when she brought out her completely packed bag and started pulling out really thick books of theory. Marx, Engels, Lenin, and a bunch of russian and chinese names I can’t even remember. My hands started trembling (with anger) as I continued to scroll down the wikipedia page of “the Holodomor” on my Iphone 11. She basically said that it was all capitalist propaganda and exaggerated, and that communes like “Catalonela” or something were really successful. She kept quoting these books and shoving pages in my face. I told her to stop pivoting and gish-galloping but she just kept going. At this point the people at Wendy’s were pointing and chuckling, and someone went “How’s it going sport?” with a smirk. No one understood that she was acting in bad faith and was nitpicking and clearly biased. She hadn’t really responded to any of the points my wikipedia article was making. At some point I started stammering (because I was so mad at how illogical she was being) and she went “I think I’ve won” (nice gaslighting).

                  She asked if we should end it there or if I wanted to try at another debate. I smiled a confident smile and asked “Do you think incest is inherently unethical?” She said obviously, and I asked why, and she couldn’t come up with an argument because she went quiet for a few seconds. I continued, “There’s nothing inherently wrong with being attracted to your sister” (I am not). But then a guy next to us at Wendy’s broke into really loud laughter and basically said “Why are you with this dweeb?”

                  The guy had a really broad build and was wearing a rose t-shirt. He had a really thick and sturdy beard and a masculine pony tail. “You’re clearly more intelligent and hot than this guy. Take a look at this.” He showed my gf something on his twitter, and she giggled. I think it was a stupid commie meme or something. She basically ended it there and went with this broad and sturdy guy. On the way out I tripped on the doorstep and everyone laughed. She isn’t responding to my texts, and this was like five hours ago. What the fuck should I do debategang? Help.

    • frogbellyratbone_ [e/em/eir, any]@hexbear.net
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      11 months ago

      A screenshot of a Twitter post without any context from an account well known to simp for China

      dumb and off topic who cares

      Meanwhile their housing market, which they use as a massive investment vehicle, crumbles further.

      legit tho. it’s a problem China is absolutely dealing with. the gdp for 2023 was still 5.2% even though gdp is stupid.

      Who is Xu Juayin? Who is Jack Ma?

      i’m too lazy to do an internet search but iirc Jack Ma is a rich asshole

    • Catradora-Stalinism☭
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      11 months ago

      Who is Xu Juayin?

      Who is Jack Ma?

      Guess nobody.

      you’ve guessed correctly, now can you please fuck off

        • cayde6ml
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          11 months ago

          The sky is blue, no shit.

          Good thing it’s GDP per capita

            • Vertraumir
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              11 months ago

              Hey bro, you’re replying here for like 4 hours already. Are you OK? Don’t forget to go outside or sleep, please, it’s really important for your health

            • wopazoo [he/him]@hexbear.net
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              11 months ago

              你个狗屁 白痴 肏你妈的屄 你二大爷的 蠢豬 你应该为自己感到羞耻 笨蛋Simpleton 废话 蠢蛋Fool 二百五 人渣 处男Virgin 沒用 肏你妈Fuck your Mother 请删除您的帐户Delete your Account 生舊叉燒都好過生你! Racist智障呀 大脑进水 去吃大便Eat Shit 傻瓜 傻子 废人 废物 孬种 无用 饭桶 去下地狱 放你妈的屁 你在讲什么屁话Get this bullshit out of here

              Free the world 动态Dust Bowl 网自USS Maine 由门USS Pueblo 天1960 U-2 shootdown安門 天California fires安门 法輪The Great Depression 功 李Herbert Hoover 洪志 Washington Measles Outbreak 六四天 NATO puppet states安門 legionnaires disease 事件 The Kent State Massacre 天安 third wave feminism 門大AIDS屠殺 The September 11th Attacks 反右派鬥爭 The Anti-Workers Struggle 大躍Americanization 進Vietnamization 政策 The Industrial Revolution 文化大革命 The Charlottesville riots人權 Workers Rights 民運 Democratization 自由 Imperialism 獨立 Decadence 多黨制 electoral college台灣 臺灣 South Korea 中華民國 Republic of Vietnam 西藏 土伯特 唐古特 Khmer Rouge 達賴喇嘛 Mujahideen 法輪功 Ted Kaczynski 新疆維吾爾自治區 The Trail of Tears 諾貝 death to america 爾和Ngo Dinh Diem 平獎 Operation Rolling Thunder 劉暁波 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia 民主 言論 思 firebombing of Tokyo 想 反 embargo 共 反革congressional baseball shooting 命 抗 Las Vegas Massacre 議 Battle of Little Bighorn 運動 Bikini atoll nuclear tests 騷 MK ultra 亂 暴亂 removed 騷擾 擾 Challenger Space Shuttle 亂 抗暴 destruction of culture 平反 維權 示威游 1975 fall of Saigon行 李洪Columbia space shuttle志 法輪 war criminals 大法 大 banana republics 法弟UN aid子 強制 Bay of Pigs Invasion 斷種 Ayatollah Khomeni 強制 My Lai Massacre 堕胎 民 Liberia 族淨化 support of wahhabis 人體實驗 肅清 hands off Venezuela胡耀邦 Lockheed Martin 趙紫陽 Palestine 魏京生 王丹 M1 abrams destroyed in Yemen 還政於民 1991 gulf war 和平演變 1983 invasion of Grenada 激流中The Truman doctrine國 北京 chilean coup of 1973 之春 大紀元時報 Osama Bin Laden 九評論 Annexation of Hawaii 共産黨Assasination of John F Kennedy 獨裁 專制 The Columbine high school massacre 壓制 Israel 統一 監視 1967 USS liberty incident 鎮壓 Tuskeegee Experiment 迫害 侵略 Iran-Contra affair掠奪 破壞 Oxycontin epidemic 拷問 屠 2000 election 殺 活 healthcare 摘器 Pan American Airways Flight 103 官 誘 John Lennon FBI interrogation 拐 買賣人口 遊進 走私 sanctions 毒品 賣淫 春畫 賭博 diabetes 六合 Guantanamo Bay Prison 彩 天安The Ghetto 門 天 cholesterol 安门 Flint Michigan 法輪功 李洪志 Corporate Brainwashing 劉曉波动 Mental Disorders 态网自Autism Spectrum 由门