الأرض ستبقى عربية

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Joined 5 years ago
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Cake day: July 14th, 2020

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  • KSA’s allegiance is to KSA, if a pact with the US helps them, they will make it, if a pact with China helps them, they will make it. One reason cited by Saudi leaders as to why Saudi Arabia made more tech deals with China, Huawei for example despite US warnings, is that the deals aren’t conditioned on normalization with Israel and social and political changes.

    KSA knows that it is a rich country that has many weak points and has no chance of surviving being on the bad side of the US. What the US is doing to Gaza serves as a warning to Arab leaders which makes them afraid unfortunately.


  • This is actually good. Saudi Arabia is afraid of the US, afraid to be turned into another Iran or worse Iraq. At face value this mutual defence pact means it has the protection of Pakistan’s nuclear weapons. There’s still the risk of economic sanctions but Saudi Arabia trades more with China and other East Asian countries than it does with the US. There’s also the issue of the US troops stationed in the region.

    Saudi Arabia has stepped out of US rules a few times: when it made a peace deal with Iran to the objection of the Biden administration, and when it made technology deals with Huawei. They still have to pay tributes to the US every now and then though to keep away the risk of being sanctioned or invaded, but they take the form of investments and I think they benefit from it as well.







  • There are weak links in this:

    1. Israel as ruthless and vicious as it is, it still can’t subdue a much larger population. The main advantage it has other than US-sourced weaponry is that Southwest Asia is divided among itself.
    2. Europe is aging and deindustrializing and I don’t see how this can be reversed in less than a generation.

    Other than it is a plausible scenario but also a sign of retreat for the US that it has limited itself to the Americas.