This is a question I’ve been meaning to ask for a very long time.
Candidates:
- Syria (ruled by Assad of the Ba’athist party, which seems to be a form of Arab Socialism)
- Nicaragua (ruled by a Socialist party, surprised they haven’t went the China route already… but then again they’re within the close proximity of Usonia, so I guess it makes sense)
- Nepal (So many Communist Parties + Already ruled by one, it would be a huge shame if it doesn’t turn Socialist or go that route)
There are likely other countries too that has the potential to turn Socialist/Leftist, like Peru; but I don’t know much about them so I didn’t put them in there. Sorry about that. But anyway, which country do you think will be the next/Sixth AES country?
Eswatini/Swaziland There is an active movement led by the communist party to overthrow King Mswati’s US-backed monarchy.
I do hope they do this once Usonia is over and done for. It’s slowly losing its roots, but until it’s fully uprooted, I feel like trying to rebel against any Usonian Puppets would result in failure; due to it having a lot of killers they don’t mind shipping out to third-world nations to maintain their stranglehold; as well as a lot of money they don’t mind spending on causing chaos, death and destruction over the world rather than the welbeing of their own people.
But then again this could just be me being worried and cynical about the matter.
Castro was able to overthrow US puppets right off the Amerika’s coast, so I think it would definitely be possible halfway across the world.
Could be, but then again, not everyone has the luck and cunningness of Castro.
Actually, I’m surprised that the three letter agency haven’t invaded Cuba now that nature has claimed Comrade Castro. I mean, it’s not like I want Cuba to be invaded; but it’s shocking, as CIA had a really hard time trying to remove him and Cuba with him (at the time) from the picture.
Cuba is too hardened to foreign interference at this point I think. 50 years of constant attempted failed colour revs and coups makes people strong and firm in their convictions.
I’m hoping that Mexico or Nicaragua will become socialist next. Given that allegedly the U.S. is laying the groundwork to sanction and invade Mexico, combined with a huge chunk of the Mexican population supporting AMLO and wanting a leftist government and decrying neoliberalism and Mexico’s communist and socialist parties being surprisingly popular even if some of them are outlawed, I’m hoping the proletariat can rise against the cartels and other capitalists.
Heat and pressure makes diamonds. I have nothing but faith in the Mexican proletariat.
Highly likely with Nepal.
Also, India, but that’s a more longterm route.
Could also be Venezuela as the communist movement is making gains there.
And let’s not forget the communist movement’s strength in Swaziland.
From what I know from speaking to a Nepali on the subject, the “socialists” currently in power have become a bunch of electoralists who have done barely anything for the people apart from free healthcare.
(Possibly hot take?) I have more faith in electoralism when it is outside of the West, all the pinko “democratic socialists” of Latin America seem to have made meaningful strides. I could see any of these instances regressing OR progressing, it will just require steady pressure and labor can never become complacent and go back to sleep when small positive changes happen and the (5) Eye(s) of Sauron is closely watching their country.
But even if the right people take power, they have to eventually fight against the bourgeoisie. Electoralism can only be the setup for a revolution.
I really wish a place like Bolivia had had its Morales a century ago to see where it would have ended up. Would it have decayed like every other European social democracy, would the bourgeois slowly lost their power, would it have came to a head and conflict erupted?
…and this is why I believe revolution is the only way to actually install Socialism properly.
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Any comrades have more informed opinions on this regarding: South Africa, Bolivia, Zimbabwe, Ghana, Iraq, Belarus?
I don’t expect it to be next, but after Russia goes through its culture war phase between its Westoid liberals and nationalist reactionaries I wouldn’t be surprised if it could become socialist again, so much of the socialist infrastructure remains intact and such a precedent is…well…unprecedented. At least the general idea is–even if in name only–cordial to average people.
Iraq
Somehow I doubt Socialism’s going to come back in Iraq, after Saddam’s (another well-known Ba’athist/Arab Socialist) been taken out of the picture.
Belarus
I don’t know if Socialism will come back in Belarus 1, but hasn’t Lukashenko already put Capitalism on a tight leash?
1 It might, especially if Russia restores Socialism again; seeing how close the two countries are. I don’t have high hopes of Russia turning Socialism anytime soon though, due to younger people in Eastern Europe not being interested in Socialist ideologies; compared to older people, probably the first and likely only time I’m ever gonna stan boomers lol.
Not just that, but after some people got a taste of capital, they became full-on bourgeois pigs in power. Besides, some people on interviews done by 1420 (inb4 someone says it’s a liberal organization, i’d actually be surprised) already say that although they miss the USSR, they’re “fine with it not coming back”.
I think Belarus is very likely to follow Chinese model, especially now that the relations with China are deepening.
I thought I heard recently that communism has picked up a bit with youth, not just because of nostalgia
I hope so, so many Russians under 30 that I talk to seem like total libs (it might be the spaces that I’m in, though, they’re all artsy and anything touched by the Western art-o-sphere is insufferably hipster IMO)
Western “art”
It’s so low effort it’s painful…
I remember fondly a composition professor at my university who “wrote” a new piece of music called Ma Mer. It was just the cello part of Debussy’s La Mer played by itself. This wasn’t plagiarism, you see, because the professor told everybody exactly what he was doing. Worse, the piece got some kind of favorable write-up in a new music review.
It was then that I realized people who disparage Shostakovich and Prokofiev as “propaganda music” are full of it.
Quite similar in a different space of music, in rap I find many people act entitled to money for their music when at BEST they are standing on the shoulders of giants/dozens of unsung heroes, and at WORST they are literally just clicking a few times.
They will use a loop made by someone else as a basis for the lead instrumentation, for the drums they will copy and paste a MIDI pattern so they don’t even have to craft their own drum patterns, they will use the same handful of safe percussion sounds, they will follow to the T the same song progression formulas fed to them by YouTube tutorials, then demand $60 for what is essentially 30 minutes of laziness that amounts to something very mediocre.
Don’t even get me started how every movie/TV show all feels just painfully “safe” and samey, I feel like a whole thread could be made for this (and maybe even already has–multiple times).
Yeah, your example and the movie industry examples are particularly annoying to me because it’s not teenagers lazily making beats on their laptop, it’s supposed champions of the culture with fancy degrees and accolades who have the nerve to still act so unknowably genius and smug when they are doing essentially just as little as the amateur teens on their laptops.
Yes from what I’ve seen Lukashenko fights Western NGOs, protects nationalized industries, and ahh shucks I remember actually reading a really great breakdown of industry in Belarus that was really inspiring but I have no idea where I read it (probably GZD ngl)
Here is a good and very recent interview between CGTN and the leader of Belarus. Interesting stuff for sure! 👍
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I hope Greece
I think Greece might actually see Socialism in its lifetime, seeing as how Capitalism is failing them; what with massive inflation and everything.
And I have serious doubts Fascism would save their economy either, not to defend Fascism as it’s Capitalism in its extreme, essentially.
I think Nicaragua, Venezuela or Mexico, Nicaragua would be first.
The US trying to fearmonger its way into “legally” allowing military intervention in Mexico tells me they think it’s a possibility.
Which would be fucking amazing. Mexico please go full BRI/alliance with China.
High speed rail connecting Mexico to South America when?? :)
I think Mexico has a long way to go before becoming an AES state. Of the ones you mentioned, Nicaragua or Venezuela would be first
The Second Democratic People’s Republic of Yemen?
I’d consider Venezuela socialist as well, even if Bolivarian socialism isn’t based on Marxism
I don’t consider Venezuela socialist, but not because of the Bolivarian revolution. The majority of the economy is still privatized and at the heel of capitalists. And the news media is mostly liberal. The proletariat isn’t in charge yet.
It is true that Venezuela do not have the material condition for the Socialist stage due to their dependency on oil export, the Neo-Liberal policy to specialize in only one industry, the sanction from the NATO, the thief of gold reserves in the UK, and the emigration of skilled workers. However, the Venezuelan Socialist government is now supporting many successful small entreprise and self-employed business in the cities which allow for a real competitive market economy that is suitable for the local material condition before the advancement to a Socialist stage of the economy that does not depend on oil, unlike Capitalist countries that impose heavy government intervention to support a few large capitalist class contrary to their slogan of minimal government intervention.
Assuming that’s true, it’s a reasonable argument. I’d be interested in data showing how much of the PPP-based GDP is state-owned in Venezuela
OECD says 18 of base gdp is state owned enterprise.
18%? If accurate, that’s very low, but it also depends on what aspects of the economy remain privatized (e.g. food production, education, oil extraction, etc.)
I think you could consider Nicaragua to already be it. Ruling communist party and at least half nationalized economy.
But its still privatized and about pursuit of profit, right?
Information about Nicaragua is rather hard to find on English internet, all I’ve been able to find on nationalization is that they expropriated the Somoza dictatorship and land held by the contras. Then they did land reform, encouraging people to make cooperatives. By 1991 40% of their GDP was from nationalized industry. Then the neoliberals took power for a few years and tried to privatize some things. After that the Sandinistas regained power, and apparently all we know about the last twenty years is “ebil commies rigging elections.” Im not sure where I found the solid half figure. I swear I found it in my research a couple months ago.
Ortega gives me mixed feelings
Same, he seems based, but could he be doing more? Or, are we just not told what they are currently doing that is good.
I understand.
Socialism originally refer to the “dictatorship of the proletariat” which means “government by the working class” before the Liberal redefinition of dictatorship. In this case, the pursue of profit and privatization can be acceptable on some context, material condition, or economic stage. If the private sector has not been taken over by a few property owning elites that rigged market competition and dictate that the people should be punished and rewarded according to their services to the few free riding Capitalists, then the private sector could be tolerated in the early stage of economic development to Socialism. Nationalization should occur in the later stage of Capitalism when the economy became dominanted by an uncompetitive oligarch or monopoly.
