Beijing has reportedly privately warned US officials that it may respond militarily to US House Speaker Pelosi’s planned trip to Taiwan, according to six anonymous sources
Sooo what are our predictions for this supremely moronic trip? Will she cancel again or do we have WW3 on our hands?
Note the word “reportedly”
True. But Chinese officials have definitely issued strong warning publicly over the last days, though no explicit military response was threatened.
It is brinkmanship 100% and something is definitely going to happen should she go. With the US being ruled by insane hawk currently this is dangerous af even if this specific warning didn’t occur.
One thing is for sure, China - like Russia - doesn’t bluff when it comes to these points of vital national interest, but more importantly Beijing WILL call your bluffs so if the US think they’re gonna achieve something with this sort of provocative behavior and that a response will not come, the US is sorely mistaken.
I don’t know if the trip will be cancelled, but if it does happen the response will be extremely strong. I give it about 50% chance of ingolving a military component, but 95% that even if it does it will stop short of anything that could be perceived as an act of war.
Still the military part is the part that should worry the US the least, China has a whole lot of other means at its disposal ranging from the diplomatic to the economic which could be employed and cause significant problems for both Taiwan and the US.
´Man better not be in my ends blud. Man gon get cheffed owright yudunno.´ - Xi, 2022.
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Source: 6 trust me bros left anonymous notes in the “China Bad” idea box in the CIA break room.
To be fair the PLA did come out and confirm it.
Though, that doesn’t prove that this article wasn’t taking a shot I’m the dark, mind you.
Honestly go ahead U.S., do something stupid and let it completely fuck up in your face just like Russia/Ukraine. Red Wave 2.0 is prepared for your bullshit, are you?
If this leads to hot conflict, god DAMN IT China please delete Pelosi. Dont let that hell hound survive.
People talk about brinkmanship and bluffing and yeah probably it’s mostly that but I worry that there are those in power who want China to respond militarily, to get into a conflict and to use that conflict to FORCE decoupling at an accelerated pace against the wishes of many but not all of the bourgeoisie/corporate world but ultimately as a last ditch attempt by the empire to preserve it’s hegemonic position by completely cutting off China, forcing hard lines to be drawn for Cold War 2.0 in a with or against us type situation like with Europe and Russia and how the US is using that to control them. That they plan to after instigating this basically give ultimatums to Africa/Latin America that they can either join the “western liberal democracy values” group and subordinate themselves to the US against China/Russia or they can get sanctioned, couped, and openly targeted full force as the US tries desperately to claw as many countries and regions into their sphere of influence to deny them to China/Russia/BRICS as possible and to make a show to their allies and subordinates that they are still strong and to cow them into not second guessing lining up behind them despite the pain and losses they’ll suffer.
I also think there are those in power who are fine with the idea of inflicting massive quality of life cuts on the domestic proles with the idea that liberal brainwashing and appeals to standing up for these “values” will get them to continue to submit as their quality of life catches on fire and jumps off a cliff. I think these are the same as the ones who want to force a new cold war separation and favor full confrontation, destruction of quality of life domestically to allow reshoring at least until manufacturing could be moved elsewhere.
We’re seeing this now with the Russia/Ukraine thing with liberals so far at least willing to freeze or at least resigned to their deaths by freezing being the cause of the bad guys and that their valiant liberal leaders standing up to Russia are not to blame, helpless as they are, or doing the right thing. We’ll see how that holds over the winter but I’m not optimistic for a mass movement against them, if Europe buckles it will be because the pain point for the European bourgeoisie is too great and they buck their American masters.
These elements of the imperial core bourgeoisie see the idea of clawing those profits back via domestic exploitation increasing dramatically plus the only chance to stop communism/China/multi-polar-world-order as the best option for them. They would love to plunge their domestic and too uppity for their tastes proles into desperation, the brink of and actual starvation and a much weaker position where they feel they won’t be able to resist the exploitation and which will they think kill the union and worker rights pushes now worrying them. I worry that they may be right that those in the west are incredibly brainwashed to the point enough will submit like dogs to this and blame it on external forces, matching an increase in extreme reaction and fascist violence that simmers but never quite boils over, just slowly burning its victims like women, POC, LGBTQ+ etc who are so alienated and betrayed by divide and conquer appeals to men, whiteness, etc that there’s nothing they can do to form a viable revolutionary coalition to push back or protect themselves.
