Li Ao definitely an interesting character lol.
Here’s a part where he talks about Mao (from 2009):
“由此可见，毛泽东是我们中华民族最伟大的英雄，历史将千秋万代铭记这一点。最近二十多年来，某些受西方影响的知识分子们(他们并不代表中国最广大的人民群众)恶毒攻击毛泽东，企图将中国重新拉回半殖民地的老路，使中国脱离向世界现代化强国冲刺的道路，沦为西方帝国主义的低级加工厂。”
“As we can see, Mao Zedong is a great hero of the Chinese people and he will remembered in history for many many generations. In the past twenty years, certain intellectuals were swayed by the west and have venomously attacked Mao’s character (but they do not represent the vast majority of the people). They aim to pull China back into a half feudal state, away from its path of becoming a strong nation and back into its status as a low level factory to serve the western imperialist states.”
based
It’s gonna be like Ukraine if there’s a war, Taiwan will receive supplies from NATO, as many as it takes.
This serves two purpose, amplify propaganda and try to bleed the enemy slowly (Whether it’s China or Russia), cause they also have to commit resources to their war.
Taiwan however has one major difference, it’s an island just off the coast of big Chinese cities. A blockade will definitely weather them down quickly, that is however if NATO can’t get them some supplies.
China also considers Taiwan their province, and so they consider everyone on it as their countrymen and citizens (if I’m not mistaken on that last part). So I doubt they would intentionally start starving the people out. Maybe organise corridors so they can leave for China, idk.
To be honest, China as a government is more intelligent than we give them credit for. They’ve studied the fall of the Soviet Union, they’ve studied NATO, and they are studying the war in Ukraine.
Look at the BRI in Africa, the US is completely powerless against it. They can’t do anything no matter how much they try to vilify China. The only people this shit works on is Europe cause we still look up to the US lol.
US is trying to provoke China into invading Taiwan, which China is not replying to. The military drills last year after Pelosi’s visit were a good show of force. It was like, we’re absolutely allowed to do drills, and just in case you forgot how strong our army is now, here’s a reminder. Nothing more (in my opinion). Personally I don’t think an invasion is likely at all. At most they might have a plan from the 70s drafted somewhere in a super secure vault haha
The Taiwanese military will basically be a token force in a conflict and would be overrun within days, and neutralized within weeks/few months if it were to fight alone against China.
The entire conflict will bank on the US and their involvement.
Basically, and China already indicated they’re not gonna play this game. China demonstrated that all they have to do is blockade Taiwan and their economy collapses. The whole ground invasion that US is salivating for isn’t going to happen. If US wants to break the blockade then they have to send in their carriers to fight against China on their home turf. China literally has thousands of missiles that can be launched from the mainland, and US has no counter to hypersonic missiles at the moment. There is literally nothing US can do here.
And let’s face it, it has only gotten worse for them. They’re kind of like Japan, their only teeth are borrowed from the US in exchange for their soul.
absolutely
I haven’t watched the clip because I’ve already seen a few like 'em, but probably 2 weeks at best.
the whole exchange was kind of hilarious to be honest
It makes me wonder whether the US could do to Taiwan what it’s doing to Ukraine. Half the Ukrainian border is with US allies. Whereas Taiwan is an island. Both geographies present different logistical advantages and disadvantages.
If Taiwan can only hope to win if the US comes to it’s aid… would the US risk being so open? Could China encircle the island to prevent ships coming through? That still leaves air transport, but I can’t see China just letting those planes in if it could help it.
Taiwan seems similar to Ukraine in terms of a proxy war. But I just can’t see the same strategy working for the US in Taiwan. Even if the point of the Ukraine war is not to ‘win’ but to pave the way for imperialist ‘re-building’, the same logic would fail in Taiwan, as the CPC can simply claim that China is to be reunified, and the US will (i) lose it’s (ideologically useful) ally in the region and (ii) not, after all, get the lucrative contacts to rebuild the island. (In contrast to Ukraine, where it seems Russia’s plan is eventually to withdraw.) I sincerely hope we don’t have to learn the hard way this time.
Am I missing something?
I could see a similar situation like Ukraine, but Europe being replaced by the Philipines and Japan. Large military stockpiles there, disposable armies, decent navies.
However, should China manage to cut naval supply lines to Taiwan, then its over. At least of the RoC.
I think you miss the realistic possibility that the US wants a large war to either get rid of its competition or clean the slate at home more than some lucrative rebuilding contracts. I don’t think that the ruling elite in the US is not high on their own propaganda, they know quite well that the current USA is on borrowed time.
Both the war in Ukraine and the hypothetical war for Taiwan could be escalated at will up to WW3. The differing positions of the US and China regarding the island don’t matter really. If the PRC would annex it, the US would state that this flourishing liberal democracy must be freed from authoritarian occupation, or something like that.
I imagine both Russia and China would rather drain US resources leading to an eventual economic collapse in the west rather than provoke US into a direct conflict. Russia did a slow and steady escalation in Ukraine, and this forced NATO to keep funnelling increasing amounts of resources to prop Ukraine up without becoming directly involved.
At this point NATO is footing the bill for running the entire economy in Ukraine, and supplying the army with everything it needs. Meanwhile, Russia continues to systematically dismantle the infrastructure creating a logistics nightmare for the west.
If the leadership in Taiwan is sufficiently idiotic to try some stunt, I expect that China will simply blockade Taiwan and force an economic collapse there. US will be in a tough position because their whole strategy is to have Chinese military bleed out in a costly land invasion before they show up. The blockade also makes for a much thinner justification to intervene militarily as it would be clear that it is US that is the aggressor as opposed to coming to the rescue of Taiwan as they spun it with Ukraine.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if China starts cutting off essential exports to US slowly further choking US economy in the near future. Economic outlook for 2023 in US is looking pretty bad already, and it might not take much external pressure to trigger a huge crisis domestically.
The blockade also makes for a much thinner justification to intervene militarily as it would be clear that it is US that is the aggressor as opposed to coming to the rescue of Taiwan as they spun it with Ukraine.
Come now, they’ve managed to whitewash literal Nazis with Nazi insignia and swastikas tattoos. How hard can it be to spin a blockade breach as some sort of “humanitarian intervention against ebil CCP who are starving the brave people of Taiwan”?
Oh I don’t think it’ll stop US from getting involved, but they’re going to have even harder time getting other countries on board than they have with Russia.
I’m more concerned about the situation spiraling out of control and leading to a Big War. I’m not sure if the USA government is delusional enough to think it will be winnable, but it won’t matter if we’re all going to die
either get rid of its competition or clean the slate at home…. [T]he US would state that this flourishing liberal democracy must be freed from authoritarian occupation, or something like that.
I think this is what I was missing. I could see the war hawks have been pushing for war in Taiwan, I just couldn’t figure out the logic based on what’s happening in Ukraine. While the surface details are different, we’re still just looking at two manifestations of imperialist logic. And any story can be twisted in favour of the US, regardless of the facts.
I can imagine.
