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I could see a similar situation like Ukraine, but Europe being replaced by the Philipines and Japan. Large military stockpiles there, disposable armies, decent navies.
However, should China manage to cut naval supply lines to Taiwan, then its over. At least of the RoC.
I think you miss the realistic possibility that the US wants a large war to either get rid of its competition or clean the slate at home more than some lucrative rebuilding contracts. I don’t think that the ruling elite in the US is not high on their own propaganda, they know quite well that the current USA is on borrowed time.
Both the war in Ukraine and the hypothetical war for Taiwan could be escalated at will up to WW3. The differing positions of the US and China regarding the island don’t matter really. If the PRC would annex it, the US would state that this flourishing liberal democracy must be freed from authoritarian occupation, or something like that.
I imagine both Russia and China would rather drain US resources leading to an eventual economic collapse in the west rather than provoke US into a direct conflict. Russia did a slow and steady escalation in Ukraine, and this forced NATO to keep funnelling increasing amounts of resources to prop Ukraine up without becoming directly involved.
At this point NATO is footing the bill for running the entire economy in Ukraine, and supplying the army with everything it needs. Meanwhile, Russia continues to systematically dismantle the infrastructure creating a logistics nightmare for the west.
If the leadership in Taiwan is sufficiently idiotic to try some stunt, I expect that China will simply blockade Taiwan and force an economic collapse there. US will be in a tough position because their whole strategy is to have Chinese military bleed out in a costly land invasion before they show up. The blockade also makes for a much thinner justification to intervene militarily as it would be clear that it is US that is the aggressor as opposed to coming to the rescue of Taiwan as they spun it with Ukraine.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if China starts cutting off essential exports to US slowly further choking US economy in the near future. Economic outlook for 2023 in US is looking pretty bad already, and it might not take much external pressure to trigger a huge crisis domestically.
The blockade also makes for a much thinner justification to intervene militarily as it would be clear that it is US that is the aggressor as opposed to coming to the rescue of Taiwan as they spun it with Ukraine.
Come now, they’ve managed to whitewash literal Nazis with Nazi insignia and swastikas tattoos. How hard can it be to spin a blockade breach as some sort of “humanitarian intervention against ebil CCP who are starving the brave people of Taiwan”?
Oh I don’t think it’ll stop US from getting involved, but they’re going to have even harder time getting other countries on board than they have with Russia.
I’m more concerned about the situation spiraling out of control and leading to a Big War. I’m not sure if the USA government is delusional enough to think it will be winnable, but it won’t matter if we’re all going to die
Yeah that’s my biggest worry as well. These things have a habit of spinning out of control, and it might get to the point when events take on a life of their own. US regime has a dangerous delusion that they can control chaos as opposed to being swept up in it along with everyone else.
either get rid of its competition or clean the slate at home…. [T]he US would state that this flourishing liberal democracy must be freed from authoritarian occupation, or something like that.
I think this is what I was missing. I could see the war hawks have been pushing for war in Taiwan, I just couldn’t figure out the logic based on what’s happening in Ukraine. While the surface details are different, we’re still just looking at two manifestations of imperialist logic. And any story can be twisted in favour of the US, regardless of the facts.
I could see a similar situation like Ukraine, but Europe being replaced by the Philipines and Japan. Large military stockpiles there, disposable armies, decent navies.
However, should China manage to cut naval supply lines to Taiwan, then its over. At least of the RoC.
I think you miss the realistic possibility that the US wants a large war to either get rid of its competition or clean the slate at home more than some lucrative rebuilding contracts. I don’t think that the ruling elite in the US is not high on their own propaganda, they know quite well that the current USA is on borrowed time.
Both the war in Ukraine and the hypothetical war for Taiwan could be escalated at will up to WW3. The differing positions of the US and China regarding the island don’t matter really. If the PRC would annex it, the US would state that this flourishing liberal democracy must be freed from authoritarian occupation, or something like that.
I imagine both Russia and China would rather drain US resources leading to an eventual economic collapse in the west rather than provoke US into a direct conflict. Russia did a slow and steady escalation in Ukraine, and this forced NATO to keep funnelling increasing amounts of resources to prop Ukraine up without becoming directly involved.
At this point NATO is footing the bill for running the entire economy in Ukraine, and supplying the army with everything it needs. Meanwhile, Russia continues to systematically dismantle the infrastructure creating a logistics nightmare for the west.
If the leadership in Taiwan is sufficiently idiotic to try some stunt, I expect that China will simply blockade Taiwan and force an economic collapse there. US will be in a tough position because their whole strategy is to have Chinese military bleed out in a costly land invasion before they show up. The blockade also makes for a much thinner justification to intervene militarily as it would be clear that it is US that is the aggressor as opposed to coming to the rescue of Taiwan as they spun it with Ukraine.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if China starts cutting off essential exports to US slowly further choking US economy in the near future. Economic outlook for 2023 in US is looking pretty bad already, and it might not take much external pressure to trigger a huge crisis domestically.
Come now, they’ve managed to whitewash literal Nazis with Nazi insignia and swastikas tattoos. How hard can it be to spin a blockade breach as some sort of “humanitarian intervention against ebil CCP who are starving the brave people of Taiwan”?
Oh I don’t think it’ll stop US from getting involved, but they’re going to have even harder time getting other countries on board than they have with Russia.
I’m more concerned about the situation spiraling out of control and leading to a Big War. I’m not sure if the USA government is delusional enough to think it will be winnable, but it won’t matter if we’re all going to die
Yeah that’s my biggest worry as well. These things have a habit of spinning out of control, and it might get to the point when events take on a life of their own. US regime has a dangerous delusion that they can control chaos as opposed to being swept up in it along with everyone else.
I think this is what I was missing. I could see the war hawks have been pushing for war in Taiwan, I just couldn’t figure out the logic based on what’s happening in Ukraine. While the surface details are different, we’re still just looking at two manifestations of imperialist logic. And any story can be twisted in favour of the US, regardless of the facts.