Is this perhaps an indicator that an actual non-“color revolution” revolution might be possible in Iran?
The best possible outcome from my perspective is for the Iranian socialist state to re-emerge. As anti-imperialists, we can respect the Islamic state for being a thorn in the US Empire’s side. But the real victory is and always has been the emergence of a workers state that could lead the region into an era of socialist republics.
That could be dangerous, the US could sponsor a “socialist” revolution only to stab them in the back later. Unfortunately, under current circumstances, it is not easy to change. However, I could and would like to be wrong. An organic socialist revolution would be nice.
As much as I’d love to see a socialist Iran in the near future, your worries are very warranted considering other socialist groups in the region.
The US wouldn’t even need to betray them openly. A bunch of american agents could support their operation to make themselves vital, the US could support them just right to push for leaders that aren’t true anti-imperialists. Such an experiment could dismantle in mere years if they allow imperialist forces to push and nudge them internally.
It’s the usual push for broader theoretically center-left coalition, then the “moderates” are getting to the offices, oportunists betray workers like usual, and before you notice there is neoliberal government with some minor posts for mild demsocs. Let them rule a term and the country is in the debt spiral by IMF, everything is privatized and there are CIA agents everywhere, communists are opressed and fascism is on the rise.
Until a clandestine proletarian vanguard emerges, the best we can hope for is an anti-imperialist nationalist movement. Unless Tudeh cells literally sneak back into Iran to lead the workers there’s no clear centre for the revolutionary movement to take on a socialist character. Its not even clear if the Tudeh party still has the relevant connections and influence to even contend for leadership in this revolution should they agitate openly in the country again. The loudest slogans of this revolutionary movement have been to rally against the Islamic republic, not in favour of a socialist transformation of society. This movement is currently one that fights in opposition to something, not for something.
Here’s my thoughts on this, not specifically meant as a response to anyone so please take this in good faith–
This is why we have dialectical materialism to avoid falling into the circular saw blade of “ideological dogma.” Slavoj drops the ball consistently but he was right when he basically argued that ideology is a fucking lobster trap used by people that don’t give a fuck about nuance to paraylize and divide opposition. The working man is, typically, a far more conscience person than the type of people that rise to the top of capital by how it incentivizes those that lack it. It’s pedantic and frustrating rules to a game that only one side thinks they are playing while the other blatantly doesn’t give a fuck and is more a force pursuing openings and opportunities than anything else. That’s why liberals lose their minds over rules based order and telling teacher when faced with reactionary forces until they get frustrated enough to just give up and concede in a game they can’t win.
What I’m saying comrades is, yes, there are western forces at play here. Yes, they have a goal and are working to accelerate the conflict. But the move isn’t to concede the game because you are locked into absolutes and dogma. When the Yankee fucks up, AS THEY OFTEN DO, and create an opening for a genuine revolutionary moment you grab it with both hands and don’t let it go. If our comrades in Iran see an opening to assert themselves in the material conditions the Great Satan creates while they stumble their way through a doomed color revolution, then I applaud them regardless of what “ideology” organized the inciting unrest.
In other words, it’s not a matter of “is it a genuine revolution or a color revolution.” It’s both, with different material interests taking shape in the country as unrest accelerates. What the Yankee never seems to understand, as is increasingly apparent in the homeland, is that revolutionary action is an inevitable reaction to state crisis. When you turn up the heat, water turns to steam. And as America puts Iran to the torch, it’s natural the a militant working class will emerge from those conditions. It’s just most times America has seen to it to actively dismantle those forces as they arise in a country they meddle in or before they begin their subversion.
But America is getting weak, and sloppy. So who knows if they’ll get that chance this time.
Yep. I think too many times communists observing from outside forget that large mass movements aren’t monolithic, but composed of several factions of different ideologies trying to take advantage of a weakening status quo.
hopefully an actual revolution happens
socialism good
liberalism bad
its a lot more nuanced than that but yeah
