Remember how they basically ignored growing China economy up to 2019? It’s because that, they could use the dollar as weapon to tank chinese economy, but it would cost them much too, so they didn’t do it.
Yup, but at the same time dedollarisation making the effect smaller. Soon the window for doing that will close. I would argue that after the last year it might be already at the point where USA and its allies will be hit worse than its enemies by that.
Similar thought, especially with dedollarization speeding up faster than the US expected with sanctions and trade limitations backfiring and such, before I was thinking ‘they’ll never do it, they’ve ran this same play since 2009’, but now I’m not sure, could go either way. If they did do it they probably have expanded plans funneling things to UA, maybe getting directly involved (the whole jet shenanigans seems to me like it opens both doors) and using ‘plata o plumo’ style diplomacy to settle debts and things, more mask off than usual. Though, I’m not sure how that will work if one of the things supposedly to be cut is military pay.
The Yanks can shit on the entire world, but I don’t think this particular method of global defecation would benefit their oligarchs. Just as two examples, cratering the dollar via debt default would also crater all their beloved asset price bubbles, and it would pull the plug on all their military occupations and invasions.
I’m not even sure if it would be valuable to the oligarchs as a big red button to stop competing economies in their tracks. Sure it was years in the making, but Russia and trade partners were pretty quick to switch their transactions off the dollar after the first wave of financial and monetary sanctions last spring. That tells me that even if the US ruling class were threatened to the point where they’d accept the damage to themselves in order to blow up everything, the rest of the world would figure out alternatives pretty quickly.
It’s possible, but I’m not sure if that sort of “short selling” or snapping up “discounted” assets applies when it’s not just a single sector crashing, but all of them plus the basis currency simultaneously. It could even be that you can’t even get out of the dollar and into a “safe” currency once it all goes down, because the IOU that’s been backing the dollar for generations will have been voided. Nobody will want to trade their valuable currency for dollar toilet paper.
Then again I’m not an economist so I’m really just guessing as to how this would play out. But my understanding is that this debt, which is used as a political football stage prop every two years, is basically the thing which has kept the global economy relatively stable over the last fifty years. Without it, everything comes crashing down.
Apologies for the delay, I was looking for the source that I had in mind. It was under Carter, not Nixon. 1979. Called the Volcker Shock.
From David Harvey, Spaces of Global Capitalism: A Theory of Uneven Geographical Development (p. 17) (emphasis added and I split the single para to improve legibility):
In October of 1979, Paul Volcker, Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Bank, engineered a Draconian shift in US monetary policy.
The long-standing commitment in the US to the principles of the New Deal, which meant broadly Keynesian fiscal and monetary policies with full employment as the key objective, was abandoned in favour of a policy designed to quell inflation no matter what the consequences might be for employment or, for that matter, for the economies of countries (such as Mexico and Brazil) that were highly dependent upon economic conditions and sensitive to interest rate shifts in the US.
The real rate of interest, that had often been negative during the double-digit inflationary surge of the 1970s, was rendered positive be fiat of the Federal Reserve.
The nominal rate of interest was raised overnight (the move came to be known as “the Saturday night special”) to close to 20 percent, deliberately plunging the US, and much of the rest of the world, into recession and unemployment.
This shift, it was argued, was the only way out of the grumbling crisis of stagflation that had characterized the US and much of the global economy throughout the 1970s.
Seems like we’re in a similar position today, with the US economy on the brink and it’s vassals already sacrificing themselves – including by interest rate hikes (not to the same percentage, but the return will be similar or better as people tend to have much more personal debt after forty years of neoliberalism than at the start of this era). If destroying the German and British economies don’t fix the US economy, it’ll surely sacrifice as many others as it takes to settle the US economy.
So the yanks still can shit on the entire world, while giving their oligarchs a boost? Sounds like something they would do
Remember how they basically ignored growing China economy up to 2019? It’s because that, they could use the dollar as weapon to tank chinese economy, but it would cost them much too, so they didn’t do it.
I’d argue they’re approaching the position where the risk would be acceptable
Yup, but at the same time dedollarisation making the effect smaller. Soon the window for doing that will close. I would argue that after the last year it might be already at the point where USA and its allies will be hit worse than its enemies by that.
Similar thought, especially with dedollarization speeding up faster than the US expected with sanctions and trade limitations backfiring and such, before I was thinking ‘they’ll never do it, they’ve ran this same play since 2009’, but now I’m not sure, could go either way. If they did do it they probably have expanded plans funneling things to UA, maybe getting directly involved (the whole jet shenanigans seems to me like it opens both doors) and using ‘plata o plumo’ style diplomacy to settle debts and things, more mask off than usual. Though, I’m not sure how that will work if one of the things supposedly to be cut is military pay.
We’ll see ultimately.
Indeed, given the time required to properly train fighter pilots, I fully expect they will be undercover NATO soldiers
The Yanks can shit on the entire world, but I don’t think this particular method of global defecation would benefit their oligarchs. Just as two examples, cratering the dollar via debt default would also crater all their beloved asset price bubbles, and it would pull the plug on all their military occupations and invasions.
I’m not even sure if it would be valuable to the oligarchs as a big red button to stop competing economies in their tracks. Sure it was years in the making, but Russia and trade partners were pretty quick to switch their transactions off the dollar after the first wave of financial and monetary sanctions last spring. That tells me that even if the US ruling class were threatened to the point where they’d accept the damage to themselves in order to blow up everything, the rest of the world would figure out alternatives pretty quickly.
Wouldn’t popping the bubbles be profitable for some at least? Same way banks and whatnot made a profit after 2008 crash
It’s possible, but I’m not sure if that sort of “short selling” or snapping up “discounted” assets applies when it’s not just a single sector crashing, but all of them plus the basis currency simultaneously. It could even be that you can’t even get out of the dollar and into a “safe” currency once it all goes down, because the IOU that’s been backing the dollar for generations will have been voided. Nobody will want to trade their valuable currency for dollar toilet paper.
Then again I’m not an economist so I’m really just guessing as to how this would play out. But my understanding is that this debt, which is used as a political football stage prop every two years, is basically the thing which has kept the global economy relatively stable over the last fifty years. Without it, everything comes crashing down.
Did they not do this before, under Nixon, too?
What do you mean specifically? The official dropping of the gold standard? AFAIK that didn’t really lead to a recession.
Apologies for the delay, I was looking for the source that I had in mind. It was under Carter, not Nixon. 1979. Called the Volcker Shock.
From David Harvey, Spaces of Global Capitalism: A Theory of Uneven Geographical Development (p. 17) (emphasis added and I split the single para to improve legibility):
Seems like we’re in a similar position today, with the US economy on the brink and it’s vassals already sacrificing themselves – including by interest rate hikes (not to the same percentage, but the return will be similar or better as people tend to have much more personal debt after forty years of neoliberalism than at the start of this era). If destroying the German and British economies don’t fix the US economy, it’ll surely sacrifice as many others as it takes to settle the US economy.
Not entirely sure, sorry