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Re the handling of Pelosi’s visit: there’s a more subtle message here, which is that China simply doesn’t consider the US a major existential threat. And really, why should they? They know, and Washington knows, that China can sink the American economy tomorrow. War is probably the only method that America has left to destabilize and destroy China, and the Communist Party is not falling for it.

The threats were aimed more at Taiwan. Prior to 2014, the KMT government was actually pursuing – in defiance of Washington – greater economic integration with the mainland. So naturally, a totally organic, not in the least US-backed series of protests called the Sunflower Movement ended up ousting the KMT and propelling the DPP into power. (The DPP had until then been a fairly marginal party). Now under the DPP’s watch, the Taiwanese economy has not been doing particularly well, and the DPP is afraid of losing supporters; and the way they stay relevant is by provoking confrontation with China, thus getting in the world news and making it seem as though Taiwan is now a major power-broker in international affairs. Pelosi’s visit, which could never have happened without the permission of Taiwan’s senior leadership, was part of this strategy. The military drills that followed the visit – they were described by our friends on r/sino as “Taiwan getting violated, like, super SUPER violated” – were China’s response to the DPP government. They were meant to signal that there will always be consequences, and that Taiwan cannot provoke China and cross Beijing’s red lines with impunity.