Has communism won? Is it a matter of time before the collapse of the West?

Or will fascism have a complete takeover?

What are some things that will almost certainly happen?

  • @folaht
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    2 years ago

    The way I see it.

    “Has communism won?”

    It lost almost everywhere, the big exception being China, and now it’s coming back.

    “Is it a matter of time before the collapse of the West?”

    There is no such thing as “the West”, only the US empire, which has been in territorial decline ever since pro-China Hong Kong won against anti-China Hong Kong.
    The time is when Ukraine loses the war, because that’s going to cause political shock waves across the world. Mostly because of the amount of investment the EU and US are pouring into this in order to weaken Russia.
    But even if the Ukraine war is won, the decline of the US and EU will continue.
    A turn-around would be the US or EU finding massive fossil resources in their area. That’s not going to happen.

    “Or will fascism have a complete takeover?”

    In the US? Maybe. But the EU will collapse before it can get off the ground. The Ukraine toll will be too large.

    “What are some things that will almost certainly happen?”

    Ukraine will lose the war.

    The moment the war is lost, US and EU public will panic and in response, escalate the issue even further. Holding fascist riots against any nation that’s neutral towards Russia. Chinese, Indians, Muslims. They’re all targeted and it will be done in the name of peace and freedom and democracy.
    What’s done against Russia right now, will be done against China, India, Saudi-Arabia and other countries.

    The EU far-right will be further split into pro-Russian conservatives and pro-liberal pro-Ukrainians.
    EU will be poorer than Russia and China on a per capita basis by 2030.
    EU will have civil wars between liberal (+fascists), pro-Russian conservatives (-fascists), and socialists.
    Hyperinflation in the US, EU and Japan.
    Taiwan will be reunited with the PRC before 2030.
    War between US and Saudi-Arabia before 2030.

      • @CITRUS
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        2 years ago

        I think they meant having a significant position on the world stage. Sure the others are great to have, but China’s our horse in this race.

        EDIT: I forgot a word.

      • @folaht
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        12 years ago

        Small exceptions.
        The USSR is the big example of it having lost.

        I’m talking about the future where there’s going to be revolutions again.

    • CritiGalDesist∞
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      112 years ago

      War between US and Saudi-Arabia before 2030

      Elaboration will be helpful

      • @folaht
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        62 years ago

        The war between Russia and US being over Ukraine, when the reality is that the US wants to weaken and overthrow the elected Russian leader, so it can divide the country and install multiple puppet leaders in order to get its hands on Russia’s cheap gas is going to be difficult to predict as to what the official narrative will be.

        The US wants to print all the dollars in the world as it pleases and it wants the world to pay for them.
        It has made such a scheme with Saudi Arabia, where “Forcing to sell oil in rubles is blackmail” (news headline) but “Forcing countries to buy oil in dollars isn’t”.
        Saudis aren’t crazy, so they want to be able to have an advantage of taking dollars over their own currency. If they trade more with China and thus need more yuan, then why not cut out the middle man and get rid of some of those dollars?
        This can lead to a cascade of selling dollars, leaving the US much poorer in a single year.
        This is Saudi Arabia announced to sell some of their oil in yuan for the first time in history.

      • @PolandIsAStateOfMind
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        2 years ago

        Saudi Arabia is flirting with Russia because they don’t want to end up like Puerto Rico. But threatening petrodollar is exactly how you end up like Iraq or Libya. I wouldn’t be surprised if we start to hear about Saudi atrocities in the western media soon.

    • @TeezyZeezyOP
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      72 years ago

      Wonderful! Thank you for responding.

      What do you mean by it has lost everywhere but is now returning? Are you saying it has a chance to win, permanently? (Of course permanently meaning becoming the world order like capitalism was/is, not actually permanent)

      • @folaht
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        2 years ago

        “What do you mean by it has lost everywhere but is now returning?”

        By that I mean the USSR was the great socialist state, with the whole of eastern Europe joining. There were socialist revolutions popping up everywhere and even the United States got scared during the 1930s prompting a New Deal capitalist reform to a more social democracy in order to appease the working class.

        “Are you saying it has a chance to win, permanently?”

        The only reason socialism has failed in the USSR is because of the US.
        During the 20th century the US had every tailwind it could wish for,
        the USSR had almost every headwind.

        The US biggest advantage is it’s total amount of fossil fuels. It simply has the most of it, which is why it was able to produce more oil and gas than the rest of the world combined in the first half of the century.
        It also has produced the most coal in the world during the entire 20th century and still has by far more of it than any other nation.

        And then on top of that, two world wars where the US was almost not attacked at all, whereas the Soviet Union was the main target in world war II, where 90% of the fighting happened.
        Enormous losses.

        Only now is it beginning to look difficult for the US to hold on to it’s hegemonic power.

        With having such a tailwind, the US in contrary to the USSR, has lived like a king despite being reckless. For example, to produce fossil fuels, the US just took as much risk as it liked and ‘hit gold’ every single time. The USSR could not understand why it took them so little time when they were carefully expanding their production.
        Since the dawn of the 21st century however, the US has tried to repeat this method with shale oil, but this time it’s backfiring. Initially everyone jumped on board again, trying to turn the US into another Saudi Arabia, because why wouldn’t it be #1? And in just twelve years they managed to indeed beat Saudi Arabia, producing the most oil in the world again…without a profit.
        So instead of being as earn as much as Saudi Arabia, they got into debt.
        Investors walked out after twelve year of constant production increases.
        This leaves no money for the shale oil producers to take risks and so currently the shale oil are now drilling all the wells they’ve found, until they can pay down the investors and earn enough to find new wells. They’ve got about two years until they run out of old wells.

        Then there’s the US biggest advantage of the 20th century, coal.
        Wind and solar are beating coal and US wind and solar is less advantageous per capita than coal for countries like Tanzania, Chile, Indonesia, Tajikistan, or the North Pole for that matter.

        Now having lost these advantages, the US has gone into the 21st century thinking that communism has been beat and won’t return forever, so it doesn’t need to repeat what it did in the 1930s, which saved the nation from a socialist revolution.
        And so there will be a revolution in the US, socialist or the always-self-destructive fascist one and that will be the end of it’s world reign.

        So without the US being the big spoiler in the room, there’s the question of why won’t there be a capitalist nation taking over the baton.
        First of all China will likely be the new big winner and China is socialist.
        Second of all, automation causes jobs to be lost and we are in a very late stage of automation.
        It’s been happening since the industrialization, but with computers, not just machines, all jobs are at stake. Jobs in the agricultural sector, industrial sector, service sector, all of them.
        Even the profession of a banker is no longer safe with the introduction of digital currencies.
        And this type of automation, computerized automation, has been happening for 50+ years already.
        The richest people of the world already are semi-IT nerds instead of bankers and IT is the profession of job destruction.
        So the richest people in the world, the thing that makes the most money these days, is the profession of automating other people’s jobs.

        This is destabilizing all capitalist nations, which means that after the US collapse, there’s not going to be a new capitalist nation.

        Permanently.