Almost whole Kharkiv Oblast is lost because of ‘‘tactics’’ by whoever is in command, tactics of retreating over and over again, losing land, then taking it back, again losing it over and over and over again for months. Leaving civillians behind who will get slaughtered by nazis. Ukronazis almost entered LPR, Donetsk is still suffering after 8 years with no end in sight, they freerly bomb settlements and kill everyone who speaks Russian and what does Russia do?
SHOWING MERCY ON NAZIS, heal their soldiers when they capture them and then let them scot free after. Spare civil infrastructure and strategic locations, roads, everything important in Ukraine, sparing them over and over again while they are slaughtering people and want to kill every Russian and Russian ally on this planet!!! Instead of launching an offensive steamrolling the Ukrainian cities, bomb the shit out of their military and destroy every strategic location. What can other people who need protection from Russia expect after this? What can Abghazia and South Ossetia, Transnistria and others expect?
I don’t know what did I expect with bourgeoisie in power, without Red Army and without Zhukov or generals like him…
We must stick to China for protection against western hordes if the war breaks out as it seems…
What are your opinions on the state of war and how long will this last like this?
I think this was a terrible blow on a lot of levels and has greatly damaged Russia’s reputation among Russian-Ukrainians and possibly even within its own population. It’s also terrible for PR in general. That’s the biggest loss here though. Militarily I don’t think it’s that important and if it was I don’t see why they would’ve given that region up.
One thing we all need to understand is, despite all the screeching and the fallout this has caused globally, it really doesn’t seem to be that big of a war. At least for Russia. We’re constantly lead to believe this is some WW2 style conflict with hundreds and hundreds of thousands of men clashing along a 1000km frontline. It just isn’t. I’ve suspected this for a while, but Kharkov has kinda proven it imo. Just skim through the footage we’ve gotten since like April. A blown up tank here, a platoon assaulting a trench there, the occasional lone fighter jet maybe. Not exactly WW2.
Thing is, there were practically no Russian regular troops in Kharkov. Militia reserves and some police-like national guard units, about 2000 of them, was the entire garrison left there. Fuck all. Why is that? We don’t know, but a sizeable force used to be there that didn’t do much either. But it shows the rather low intensity and priority of that oblast. The Russians didn’t bother having it and Ukraine could only now capitalize on it.
We also pretty much know there is next to no Russian regular mechanized infantry fighting in Donbass. The fighting there is done almost exclusively by the militias and Wagner with occasional Chechen support. Iirc some VDV units were active during the Popasna episode, but that’s about it. The only places that have had a solid presence of the RF throughout are Kherson and the broader south, but those have been pretty quite for months too (before the Kherson offensive). Mostly just positional artillery battles with smaller skirmishes from what we know. Really the last large battle for Russian regulars was Mariupol.
To give some idea of the numbers: Reports were that RF massed 20k troops in Kherson prior to the Ukrainian offensive. Even if we generously extrapolate that number there’s no way even 100k Russian regulars are in Ukraine.
We know that’s a fraction of Russia’s army, so what the fuck is going on? Idk and I’m done spectulating, because this war just doesn’t make sense and deceives on so many levels. But maybe we should go back to what Russia declared it wanted to do and disregard our own wishes and expectations and especially those of hysterics in the East and West. Russia said it launched this SMO to support the Donbass republics in their struggle against Ukraine and to destroy the Ukrainian military. It didn’t declare total war on Ukraine and it hasn’t acted like it is in a real war with Ukraine at any point - to the frustration of many. It didn’t declare an ambition to landlock Ukraine, to free all Russian speakers or to destroy Ukraine. It has explicitly refrained from extending the war to any part of Ukraine not immediately involved in the fighting (infrastructure, etc).
Really, it’s just doing what it said it would do. And looking at the broader geopolitical and economic context, it seems quite happy to continue the way it’s been going. Time is mostly on its side and if it ever feels the need to ramp up the conflict it absolutely can. But why should it? It’s costly and the clock isn’t ticking for Russia anyway.
yea, important to note that it’s not a formal war, i.e. no declaration of war, and the title /special operation/
Yup. Thing is, everyone - conditioned by Western euphemisms, lies and hypocrisy - just assumes this too has to be some cover, misnomer or whatever. Even the people “supporting” Russia are doing this. Just look at all the telegram channels, everyone’s really assuming Russia is fighting a full on war, but somehow paradoxically restricting itself. This contradiction between reality and what they assume to be reality then clashes violently as was the case multiple times already and now especially in Kharkov. Why the hell would they give up Kharkov, use so few men and not target critical infrastructure in a war? That doesn’t make sense.
But what if Russia isn’t just calling it a SMO - what if it really is a special military operation to protect Donbass and demilitarize Ukraine?
I am too poor for telegram ;__;, maybe that’s for the best tho.
you are right to point out all the hysteria. it is a contradiction. doesn’t help that western neoliberal media feeds and manufactures it with blatant propaganda and lies
as for your last point, isn’t that exactly what putin said? plus making sure that the west can’t point nukes at russia from crimea seems pertinent after russia was not allowed entry into the eu, and the minsk accords were torn up
I do believe your analysis is correct. It isn’t a full out war, 'cause if it was, really, shit should’ve hit the fan a few months ago.
I do, though, believe that in almost every way, Russia is in a better position than anything the imperialist core can cook:
So, I do believe that we have two scenarios:
Again, Putin is not an ally of the proletariat in any way, shape or form, and saying so is either opportunistic or naïve. What he is doing is protecting the Russian bourgeoisie’s interests first. This does, however, help to some extent the return to a multipolar world, making the imperialist nations squabble.
What is the situation in Syria like? It’s possible they may consider that the more important front in the war against US imperialism, and are diverting more resources there.
That’s a good point and definitely plays a role. I’ve not followed Syria too closely in the past months, but afaik it’s looking like it’s entering something like an end-stage (ignoring the Yankee elephant in the room) with Syria and Turkey rekindling relations recently.
Azerbaijan-Armenia is another conflict that could draw in Russian troops at any moment, Georgia still isn’t exactly a friend of Russia either. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan had skirmishes a day or two ago too. They can’t just chug their entire army into Ukraine and leave all that exposed.
In general, to me at least, it seems like the larger geopolitical and economic situation is more important to the Russian leadership than the fighting on the ground. They’re battling NATO globally, not just in Donbass. The main ‘battle’ atm probably isn’t Kharkov or Bakhmut, but Samarkand.
how do you follow Syria? I don’t have those channels.