This has been a long debate that I had with @multitotal@lemmygrad.ml and I wish to expose this here to add different points of view and enrich the discussion.
Context from my discussion with Multitotal -> https://lemmygrad.ml/post/6440034/5642022
This was a discussion made by multitotal and other people -> https://lemmygrad.ml/post/6447386/5645801
To start, I wish to lay the background of Syria with some sources from my own investigation.
Before the Civil War on 2011
Syria’s economy was worth $68 billion, ranking 68th globally. It was a middle-income economy, on par with Paraguay and Slovenia, and boasted a diverse economic structure with low inflation.
Agriculture, industry, retail, and tourism were pillars of its stability. In 2009, agriculture contributed 22 percent to the economy, industry and excavation 25 percent, retail 23 percent and tourism 12 percent.
Toll of the war
The civil war obliterated this diversity. Agricultural output has plummeted by at least 50 percent, according to the World Food Program. Infrastructure vital to the industrial sector, once concentrated in Aleppo and Homs, has been reduced to rubble.
Oil production, a crucial export for Syria, has collapsed from 380,000 barrels per day in 2010 to 40,000 barrels per day today - a drop of nearly 90 percent.
Tourism, once a burgeoning sector drawing millions of visitors annually to historic sites like Palmyra, has all but disappeared.
Meanwhile, poverty is endemic. The UN estimates that over 90 percent of Syrians live below the poverty line, with more than half facing food insecurity. Inflation is rampant, and the Syrian pound, battered by years of war, has lost over 99 percent of its value since 2011.
How did it begin?
The creation of the Syrian Democratic Forces ->
Source -> https://disser.spbu.ru/files/2023/disser_en_yurk.pdf
Even with the US support, has the material reality improved for the Kurds?
With this, evidence suggests that it has not improved:
Source -> https://disser.spbu.ru/files/2023/disser_en_yurk.pdf
Kurds map 2018 ->
Evidence of US plunder of Syrian oil
Source -> https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202209/1274786.shtml
Now, with all of this context, I came to the following conclusion:
Supporting rojava or any other imperialist faction is the same as supporting the continuation of imperialist plunder of Syria. I prefer to advocate for the removal of the imperialist and for the unity of all of the people of Syria.
TLDR I don’t support any imperialist funded faction but Syrian liberation from the imperialists. This means Syrian unity and not balkanization.
Hope to read all of your thoughts on this!!
Their relationship with the US is really tentative. The US is far more invested in Iraqi Kurdistan than anything, because the US actually supports the project of Iraqi Kurdistan, whereas they don’t with Rojava. Instead, Its a weird alliance of convenience that, given other machinations in the region, I just don’t see lasting.
The thing I keep coming back to though, and a thing I see my fellow MLs completely gloss over in discussions of Rojava, is their relationship with Turkey, and Turkish/Kurdish relations more broadly.
Turkey is in many respects an ethno-nationalist political project, founded on the forced assimilation, and ethnic cleansing of, Most famously Armenians, but also Greeks, Kurds, and other ethnic minorities.
Given the splitting of Kurdish homelands across 4 separate countries, the Turkish communist movement has had to grapple very extensively with the Kurdish national question. For instance, On The National Question by Ibrahim Kaypakkaya is all about the National Question as it relates to the Kurds.
One such actor in this had been the PKK, who’s decades-long insurgency has the Turkish state very much on edge, to the point that any Kurdish actor, even the most milquetoast lib ones, get smeared as PKK sympathizers. This extends to Turkey’s continual and ongoing violations of its neighbors sovereignty, going into both northern Syria, and Iraq, to “address PKK terrorism” whether the PKK is actually present or not.
Rojava has repeatedly asserted that it desires to be an autonomous region within a sovereign Syria, and not be an independent state. With its constitution stating: “Syria is a free, sovereign and democratic state”. An independent Rojava would be unable to defend against Turkish invasion.
Speaking of invasions, Turkish backed jihadis are currently taking more Rojava territory in the North west, and have been ethnically cleansing parts of that region for a handful of years now.
If we care about a sovereign, independent, Syria, I think opposing Turkish and Israeli violations of sovereignty is currently key. And if we care about weakening the west, we should consider critical support for a Kurdish polity on the border of NATOs second largest power, I think that deserves our critical support.
And if the US wants to strain relations with a key ally, by continuing to support Rojava to the dismay of Turkey (something I don’t think will happen long term, but hypothetically if that does happen), I say let NATO weaken itself further.
Seeing Turkey as an ethnonationalist settler state is something us communists don’t do enough. That’s also why I’m in favour of renaming Turkey to Anatolia, like i said a couple of days ago.
Interesting. I never saw Turkey as an ethno-nationalist project and it makes sense with your explanation.
Right now, my hope is for the loyalists faction to regroup in Tartus and Latakia with the help of the russians and start guerrilla against the terrorists. If the loyalists group gain more strength, they could represent hope for the Kurds in case they are abandoned by the USA.
This has happened before where the Kurds where helped by the pro gov’t forces -> https://america.cgtn.com/2018/02/20/afrin-pro-syrian-forces-kurds-turkey-ypg
Well thanks for the detailed post. I hope any discussion about it can remain civil.
Unfortunately multitotal got banned for a month so they are not going to reply.
Great and detailed post. Thanks for taking the time to make it. I live in the united states myself sadly, and so much of the info i come across is clearly propaganda. Especially anything foreign policy related. So as someone who works for a living at a job i hate and doesnt have time to research everything properly i have a technique i use. A way to figure out what position i should have quickly and easily while knowing nothing. Funnily it had me come to the same conclusion as you.
The technique is really easy. I simply look at the US State Departments position on an issue, and i take the opposite position. It doesnt exactly get me to the level of nuanced understanding you have, but i have found it gets me in the ballpark pretty reliably.
Im gonna save your post tho that way if anyone ever asks me why i have the position i do i have a better answer than “cuz fuck america”.
“Cuz fuck America” is a pretty solid answer once you know how the US has affected our world. Probably better than any opposition to that statement will give.
For sure but it isnt very persuasive to a lot of the “we can do reform” types
I think this post does a good job of laying out some important points that I broadly agree with and are often ignored by certain varieties of imperial “leftist”:
- that the US took advantage of, and funded SDF in 2015 (and presumably to a greater or lesser extent since) as part of a broad strategy to split the focus and weaken the territorial control of the central Syrian government
- that the profits from US resource extraction in Syria benefit imperial capitalists and not any particular group of Syrian people.
That said, when it comes to suggestions like
don’t support any imperialist funded faction but Syrian liberation from the imperialists. This means Syrian unity and not balkanization.
…what alternative Syrian political group presently exists that you believe simultaneously represents “Syrian unity” and “liberation from the imperialists”?
To be clear, I don’t have a reason to believe SDF supports those things. It just appears to me that the only previously existing faction that did is now gone, and that the leader of the current de facto “Syrian unity” bloc appears to be HTS, which (in addition to the Al Qaeda of it all) appears to be the least inclined toward “liberation from the imperialists” and the most backed by the US. I could be wrong about any of that, it’s just the impression I have over the last week or so. The current situation could obviously evolve in a number of different ways, most of them being grim for the average Syrian. My position at the moment is that, if every remaining faction has a history of US support and the US now seeks consolidation under one of the most reactionary factions, imperial goals may be frustrated to some extent if other remaining factions can contest that consolidation under the current comprador regime.
I’m not about to whitewash or ignore the SDF’s history of imperial collaboration (which they may shortly come to regret when the guns of their “allies” turn on them), but I’ve not really seen evidence that any other remaining faction isn’t currently more aligned with the empire (HTS, Turkey, ”Israel”), and/or worse in a significant way (ISIS).
…what alternative Syrian political group presently exists that you believe simultaneously represents “Syrian unity” and “liberation from the imperialists”?
Very good question! That’s where the Russians and the remaining loyalist factions come into play(starting from here all of my thoughts here are speculation on my part). Russia will defend their bases in Syria including the access to the sea where the Tartus and Latakia bases are currently located and this might give a breathing room to the remaining loyalists to form guerrillas. Maybe, this is just cope from my part but anything can happen.
While the US proxies fight each other, this faction will grow in strength and in due time they might gain public support where syrians start to yearn for Al Assad again similarly to what happened in Libya with Gaddafi and Iraq with Saddam.
Also, Maher Al-Assad is regrouping in Iraq:
Major General Maher al-Assad, former commander of the 4th Armored Division and younger brother of Bashar al-Assad, has vowed to liberate Siria🇸🇾 from the al-Julani regime with the help of Shiite military groups iraquíes🇮🇶.
Speaking bluntly, Maher stated, “Terrorist groups cannot conquer a country. It is a black spot in our nation’s history when soldiers are shot at in the streets. I wonder how many kilometers Israel occupied during my brother’s rule! Now, during his ‘rule’, the Israeli army has almost reached Damascus. All that is left of the once great Syrian army are ruins and destroyed military equipment. The Syrian people will not accept this.”
Source for the remaining loyalists -> https://t.me/wofnonchat/1845183 and https://news.cgtn.com/news/2024-12-10/Shifting-dynamics-in-Syria-highlight-a-nation-on-the-brink-of-change-1zdmY5neOR2/p.html
Syria’s fragmentation poses significant challenges for the Middle East. The country’s territorial divisions – HTS dominance in the west, SDF control in the east, and remnants of Assad loyalists along the coast – reflect a broader trend of disintegration. This new reality could spur similar movements in neighboring countries, destabilizing the region further.
Source for Maher al-Assad (it’s in Spanish)> https://x.com/CFBotonesNegros/status/1867671378415300748
It’s definitely good to learn of at least some remaining Syrian anti-imperialist resistance organizing. Hopefully the new reality (HTS rule, worsening material conditions, Turkish and Zionist occupation) and the lack of a unifying “common enemy” in Assad will galvanize more Syrians into recognizing the empire’s role in their declining living standards and uniting in opposition to the “new boss”.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy: