I mean we should be out on the streets protesting all arms deliveries to Ukraine and demanding that our politicians push for peace negotiations instead. But in terms of this specific one, it’s more of the same pattern we’ve already seen.
First the Americans push one of their European vassals to send a new type of weapons system (in this case the trial balloon was Britain and Storm Shadows) that they haven’t sent so far, then they use this as a justification to say “see, it’s ok if we do it too, it’s not an escalation anymore”, so eventually the US and the rest of NATO start sending theirs. They did it with the tanks, they did it with artillery, and there was no reason to doubt that they would do it with long range missiles too eventually.
The problem is that we have already seen that this does not tend to produce any qualitative change in the balance of forces of this conflict. For sure these kinds of actions prolong it and force Russia to adapt and possibly to respond in kind (as they have done in response to the cluster munitions), but they do not turn the tide for Ukraine. Russia has already shot down similar missiles sent by Britain and no doubt their air defenses will learn to shoot these down as well.
Undoubtedly some amount of damage will be done initially, the cheerleaders in the media will cheer for some pictures of a hit here or there, and Ukraine will not be able to resist using these missiles against civilian targets, but the military situation will remain the same and this will not be any more of a “game changer” than any of the other purported “wonder weapons”. In fact in this case it will be even less impactful because the West does not have all that many of these sorts of weapons to begin with.
So the question becomes, at what point do Westerners finally acknowledge that doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is fundamentally irrational, unproductive, and deterimental even for their own self-interest?
just admit it westerners are too dumb for this planet
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This is for the most part solid analysis but the argument falls apart when they mention “a decapitated Russia”. That may have been their intention and their hope at the start but at this point that is not looking even remotely possible to achieve. This has been a massive miscalculation by Europe which will come out as the biggest loser in this whole geopolitical confrontation, because the US will make sure that its losses are transferred onto Europe. Europe being in the subordinate position will see its wealth siphoned off to the US so that the US can slow down its own precipitous decline as the stream of plunder which the Western imperialist system was accustomed to extracting out of the global south is slowly but surely drying up. BRICS+ and China’s Belt and Road Initiative are visibly shattering the West’s neo-colonial global dominance and more and more countries will start seeing which way the wind is blowing.
bravo
the problem becomes in the case of long range missiles US and UK made missiles being used on the civilian centers of a nuclear power
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That war is a business for MIC. A showcase. And as every showcase, it needs marketing including commercials.
Ukraine will now be able to blow up Donetsk grocery shops from even further away!
Why, they might even be able to blow up grocery stores in other places!
Doubt this missiles will lead any significant damage, let alone even a scratch to the SMO. Russia’s Air Defences have reached impeccable qualities and the electronic warfare deployed by russia can scramble these missiles if they ever try hitting military targets, likely these missiles will be used to hit crimea, maybe some bridges, maybe a dam, or some obscure airfield far north of russia. These missiles will be gone just like the rest of the wunderwaffes
I mean if drones can hit as far as Moscow without detection
Drones are harder to detect than missiles.
What cfgaussian said, Ukraine can use very efficient means to hide their drones (such as using carboard or flying very low to avoid detection) missiles do not have this luxury, they have a very short time frame, hit hard and fast. And Anti-Missile weaponry has been more developed than Anti-Drone weapons, military targets in russia have also been very fortified, and while these missiles can reach as far as moscow. There’s prominent speculation just how realistic this is.
Pretty sure they said waaay back when these missiles were first proposed (around spring) that it would “allow AFU to strike Crimea”. As in, not just the shores. We’re talking terror attacks on all cities in the peninsula - Yalta, Simferopol, Kerch. Plus the already suffering areas - Belgorod, Donetsk. Might even try to strike Moscow or smaller cities - Niznhy Novgorod for example, has plenty of military related industries. And while the anti-missile and anti-air defenses are good, their coverage is not - as evidenced by missiles and shells slipping through and falling in Belgorod, Donetsk, Tver, etc
the shells used by the AFU cannot be destroyed using conventional means, western missiles are expensive, and few in quantity, and Anti-Missile Warfare is a lot more advanced than you think. Storm shadow missiles have been routinely destroyed despite their ‘stealth’ and ‘speed’. ATACMS on the other hand are not, so these missiles will be intercepted, even then russia would destroy the depots which house these missiles.
It’s also a myth that the reason these missiles were not delivered then was due to any perceived moral red lines(seriously a western politician having things like foward-thinking? Pah). No these missiles have to procured, developed, shipped and sent, all of this takes months especially in america, where military infrastructure is severely lacking. Another thing is these companies who make these missiles are very shy about their products, probably because they seriously underperform their own tasks.
We should… but at the same time… all the fancy guidance shit will be stripped out and who knows if the Ukranians will have the support infrastructure to keep the things functional before use.
“Can’t keep those types of things fueled without maintenance for too long or the gosh darned oxidizing agent starts eating through all the gosh darned rocket parts!”
Half surprised they didn’t go for “Army Tactical Operational Missile Improved Counteroffensive Systems” (ATOMICS) to sound threatening
