I’m not sure this is more likely. It may happen, depending on what parties ending up winning elections in the West. But if the current governments remain in power I can’t see them allowing it to happen even if it meant WW3.
They will likely use the Crimean model in the east atleast. The west not sure. Theres a chance the west ends up being some sort of buffer neutral zone between EU and Russia.
East/West Ukraine incoming?
I think a more likely scenario is that Russia will simply absorb the eastern part and then install a compliant regime in the west.
I’m not sure this is more likely. It may happen, depending on what parties ending up winning elections in the West. But if the current governments remain in power I can’t see them allowing it to happen even if it meant WW3.
They will likely use the Crimean model in the east atleast. The west not sure. Theres a chance the west ends up being some sort of buffer neutral zone between EU and Russia.
Also possible that Russia would let Poland absorb it and make it their problem.
I highly doubt that Russia would be ok with a NATO nation taking over west ukraine. It would only happen if NATO nations forced it to be so.