I think there are strong signs that the US is already pivoting away from Ukraine. It’s not their core interest, and they’re far more worried about China than Russia. There were two schools of thought in US. One said that they need to take on China directly, and the other that it would be better to break up Russia first and surround China from the west cutting it off from military support and resources that Russia affords. The latter camp won and that’s why the war in Ukraine started. The US miscalculated that Russia would be a relatively easy nut to crack, and then they could choke off China from all sides while plundering Russian resources in the process. RAND basically laid it all out in a paper they put out https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
Now it’s becoming clear that Russia hasn’t been weakened, and that Ukraine will lose the war. So, US will leave Europe holding the bag while they move on to do fuckery in Asia. Meanwhile, Europe does not have the means to keep the war going on their own. So, Russia will be dictating terms in the end.
I think there are strong signs that the US is already pivoting away from Ukraine. It’s not their core interest, and they’re far more worried about China than Russia. There were two schools of thought in US. One said that they need to take on China directly, and the other that it would be better to break up Russia first and surround China from the west cutting it off from military support and resources that Russia affords. The latter camp won and that’s why the war in Ukraine started. The US miscalculated that Russia would be a relatively easy nut to crack, and then they could choke off China from all sides while plundering Russian resources in the process. RAND basically laid it all out in a paper they put out https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html
Now it’s becoming clear that Russia hasn’t been weakened, and that Ukraine will lose the war. So, US will leave Europe holding the bag while they move on to do fuckery in Asia. Meanwhile, Europe does not have the means to keep the war going on their own. So, Russia will be dictating terms in the end.