This bit was interesting as well. There is some speculation that the reason Budanov is picked because they’re realizing that the war is lost and plan to try and transition to building terrorist cells similar to what they did with IS in Syria, and that’s Budanov’s area of expertise.
The new Ukraine policy has been emerging over recent months. If understood correctly, the policy is designed to deal with the new reality that Ukraine will lose the war and Ukraine’s government may need to evacuate Kiev. Putting Budanov in effective control, including for the relocation of Ukraine’s capital, probably to Lviv, is the bedrock of the policy.
I hope not. I hope Zaluzhny coups him and sues for peace with Russia. If Zelensky can consolidate control of the military and purge any remaining opposition then I’m afraid the chances of any kind of peace being reached are unlikely. Zelensky seems to have a Messiah-complex and the west probably has enough blackmail material on him to have him hanged 10 times over for crimes against his own people so he’s never going to go for peace.
Also it makes sense the west is shifting Ukraine to an insurgency. The funding has run out, the data on western weapons and Russian weapons performance has been gathered. At this point best bang for their buck is defensive posture plus terrorist attacks against Russian civilians using cheap long-range weapons and infiltrators. I expect we’ll see many more spectacular and deadly attacks on Russian civilians before 2024 is up sadly.
Russia can win in terms of securing traditionally Russian ethnic regions by the end of the year but that won’t stop the Ukrainian terror fascist regime from continuing to lob artillery, drones, and other types of bombings using trucks and so on at those territories and even pre-war Russian territories to kill civilians and cause chaos. Meaning to stop the fighting and guarantee the safety of their people sooner or later if a coup cannot be produced by pragmatists (because they’ve all been purged) which seems to be what Russia has been hoping for then the Russians will have no choice but an offensive deep into Ukraine. That seems to be what the west is counting on.
Problem is that from what I understand Zaluzhny is also a banderite, so it’s not clear he’d actually do the sensible thing after a coup. I do think that a coup is more likely than a purge though. Most of the military seems to be loyal to Zaluzhny, and I don’t think it’s gonna go well if Zelensky tries to remove him. The other obvious problem here is that Budanov has no command experience making him supremely unqualified to lead the army.
It’s also not clear how much support any sort of an insurgency would actually have in Ukraine at this point. Public opinion polls seem to indicate that people are tired of the war and they don’t trust the government anymore. If there is a military collapse, I expect that most people will just accept that Russia won. Any kind of insurgency relies on having substantial public support, and I don’t think it’s gonna be there.
So if I understand correctly, unless Russia take Kiev and put a new government in place, we should expect the Banderites to stick around for the next few years after the war at least?
Sure is starting to look that way, although it is going to be up to Russia in the end. I also think that it would be a really dumb move for Poland to absorb western Ukraine. It’s not like Poland is doing well economically right now, and getting saddled with a rump state is only going to add to the existing problems.
Such an anexation by Poland/EU would probably also come with a call for ukrainians to move there away from “evil Russia” which would just cause more friction as the population increased and specially with what they will start doing to both the ukrainians and the russian speakers (ukrainian or otherwise) that were to go too.
I would even say it would be a tragedy, it would introduce all the problems of the interwar Poland had with them and then some more. Any part of UA annexed would be like powder keg.
This bit was interesting as well. There is some speculation that the reason Budanov is picked because they’re realizing that the war is lost and plan to try and transition to building terrorist cells similar to what they did with IS in Syria, and that’s Budanov’s area of expertise.
I hope not. I hope Zaluzhny coups him and sues for peace with Russia. If Zelensky can consolidate control of the military and purge any remaining opposition then I’m afraid the chances of any kind of peace being reached are unlikely. Zelensky seems to have a Messiah-complex and the west probably has enough blackmail material on him to have him hanged 10 times over for crimes against his own people so he’s never going to go for peace.
Also it makes sense the west is shifting Ukraine to an insurgency. The funding has run out, the data on western weapons and Russian weapons performance has been gathered. At this point best bang for their buck is defensive posture plus terrorist attacks against Russian civilians using cheap long-range weapons and infiltrators. I expect we’ll see many more spectacular and deadly attacks on Russian civilians before 2024 is up sadly.
Russia can win in terms of securing traditionally Russian ethnic regions by the end of the year but that won’t stop the Ukrainian terror fascist regime from continuing to lob artillery, drones, and other types of bombings using trucks and so on at those territories and even pre-war Russian territories to kill civilians and cause chaos. Meaning to stop the fighting and guarantee the safety of their people sooner or later if a coup cannot be produced by pragmatists (because they’ve all been purged) which seems to be what Russia has been hoping for then the Russians will have no choice but an offensive deep into Ukraine. That seems to be what the west is counting on.
Problem is that from what I understand Zaluzhny is also a banderite, so it’s not clear he’d actually do the sensible thing after a coup. I do think that a coup is more likely than a purge though. Most of the military seems to be loyal to Zaluzhny, and I don’t think it’s gonna go well if Zelensky tries to remove him. The other obvious problem here is that Budanov has no command experience making him supremely unqualified to lead the army.
It’s also not clear how much support any sort of an insurgency would actually have in Ukraine at this point. Public opinion polls seem to indicate that people are tired of the war and they don’t trust the government anymore. If there is a military collapse, I expect that most people will just accept that Russia won. Any kind of insurgency relies on having substantial public support, and I don’t think it’s gonna be there.
So if I understand correctly, unless Russia take Kiev and put a new government in place, we should expect the Banderites to stick around for the next few years after the war at least?
Hard to say, but definitely a possible scenarios. All going to depend on how far Russia decides to push this.
Preparing for that final partition between Russia and Poland, eh?
Sure is starting to look that way, although it is going to be up to Russia in the end. I also think that it would be a really dumb move for Poland to absorb western Ukraine. It’s not like Poland is doing well economically right now, and getting saddled with a rump state is only going to add to the existing problems.
Such an anexation by Poland/EU would probably also come with a call for ukrainians to move there away from “evil Russia” which would just cause more friction as the population increased and specially with what they will start doing to both the ukrainians and the russian speakers (ukrainian or otherwise) that were to go too.
Good point, it would basically be populated by hardcore nationalists who wouldn’t exactly be happy to be subjugated by Poland.
I would even say it would be a tragedy, it would introduce all the problems of the interwar Poland had with them and then some more. Any part of UA annexed would be like powder keg.
completely agree