The president's remark that the U.S. would defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack “doesn't really have the hallmark of an off-the-cuff remark,” one expert said.
Accelerationist comrade Biden really trying to hurry up nuclear apocalypse
Your scenario assumes western capitalists would be okay with them being sanctioned out of their factories and supply chains in China and being forced to relocate elsewhere, or that China wouldn’t reciprocate with such sanctions if provoked. Russian gas is one thing, the factory of the world is another. It would mean global shortages of basically every product out there. That’s one scenario where I could see the US getting couped by level-headed capitalists just to restore the economic status quo.
Well the thing is, there are multiple factions of bourgeoisie in the US. Some are for this, some are quite against and even friendly towards China and against current sanctions and tensions. It’s really about who is at the wheel and has power right now and it looks to me like the defense industry types and such currently have the upper hand. After all capitalism doesn’t survive in a vacuum, it needs the exploitation of imperialism that China is going to destroy. Those capitalists who don’t want some sort of confrontation with China could be said to be ignorant of how the system works. Because once that exploitation of the global south ends, they’re fucked on the home-front.
The thing is, they think they can do this and China will just be forced to take it. Because the truth is, if China just stops shipments to the west (US/Europe), their economy will burst into flames as well. They’ll have to either let it burn for a while or nationalize and still suffer some pains but also scare off any remaining investors after seizing assets. China is trying to work to minimize the effects of this but it will take time, time during which they’re still vulnerable and have to choose between sort of working economy that’s hamstrung by the west to just blowing the whole thing up and going home. Because as noted in regards to naval power beyond the SCS, if they do cut off the west, the west might retaliate by preventing their goods reaching African, Latin American and Asian markets by boat which would be a problem as Russia, China, and the current BRI neighbor countries aren’t enough to support China’s economy or manufacturing base. It would also be something that would force even the China-friendly capitalists in the US to greenlight emergency measure to re-shore manufacturing in India, perhaps the west short term, etc and would force a decoupling. Now whether the western proles would take this or rise up is the real question. But it’s just too many ifs and very dangerous for China and the world.
So lots of things /could/ happen. The US could get couped, things could be walked back. But lots of things could spiral out of control too, those sympathetic to China and against the imperialist plot could be arrested or killed as well. The thing is, the intelligence apparatus is loyal I think to the hawkish elements and would not choose to help coup against them unless it served some greater chessboard plot of theirs.
I think you’re raising very fair points, but I think you’re being woefully too pessimistic. I won’t knock on you for that, because the difference between being a realist and pessimistic is like planck-length.
I think you’re slightly underestimating the brilliance and tactical leadership of the CPC, who are basically required to plan things out a century in advance.
I think you’re overestimating the ability of humans and communist parties to plan things out a century in advance when other humans are involved. The situation is ever changing in ways no one can predict. Lenin never though he’d live to see the revolution, yet he not only lived to see it, he and others had to take steps, make changes to help it succeed as it occurred and react to developments underway to secure it.
If next year for example against all apparent odds France moved over into the Chinese sphere because of various pains, who could foresee that? Yet a good tactician would have to adjust based on that happening, not steam ahead merrily “trusting in the plan” like some Q conspiracy weirdo.
This is why communists have 5 year plans. Because while one can plan things in the abstract long-term and set goals, the short-term requires tinkering, adjustments, reactions to developments.
When they bought Cisco equipment from the Americans for example, did they plan on it having NSA hardware spy implants that allowed them to map their networks, infiltrate their systems, spy on them extensively? When they banned Tesla’s after the fact from government facilities because of their internet connected cameras was that forethought or a reaction to someone realizing (a little later than they should have probably) that “oh shit, the Americans have used their companies to spy on us in the past (Cisco), they’ll probably do it again”?
The CPC has done a great deal of good and shown great competency on many fronts but they’ve been very badly underestimating the duplicity, backstabbing dishonesty of the US for a few decades now. I’m sure there are voices within it who knew better but on the whole many developments have caught them by surprise. Among other things I think one of the reasons the US has been accelerating their freak-out about China is because it’s gone dark for their spies, they finally rooted out the hardware implant compromised devices, the malware they implanted and their human-int networks. It certainly wasn’t the CPC plan to be compromised deeply by CIA bribes and corruption or any of these other problems. Xi has been reacting to the reality he found and trying to fix it. It wasn’t their plan to have images of party officials being forced to sell en-mass their imported Audi luxury sedans by Xi’s push. Forethought would have meant never allowing it to start.
Nor is it the CPC plan to re-unify Taiwan by force. And yet they don’t get to decide that. The US does because it is their puppet and they can at a time of their choosing make them cross red lines until the CPC reacts (or else until the CPC decides not to and is shown to not really care about their red lines but that too is a departure from the plans).
The CPC have been following basic Marxism-Leninism, it’s really the foolish Americans who have fucked up and hung themselves with their own rope by misstep after misstep. If they’d moved to crush China economically and encircle it in the 90s instead of off-shoring for medium-term profits China would be in a much different situation with a much steeper, more perilous climb ahead of them in a very hostile world. If they’d just given Russia more concessions they could have turned them against China at the mere cost of a competitor capitalist bloc. The CPC has good planners but a lot of it is taking advantage of western capitalist own-goals against themselves. And to do that you have to react to the situation at hand and adjust.
The strength of Marxism-Leninism is the ability to react to changing circumstances and be adapted to new or changing conditions. It isn’t a bible. It isn’t a master plan with every step planned out. It’s a scientific approach to dealing with the situation you find yourself in.
The west is full of greedy, short-term-thinking fools and it is very likely they’ve already dug their own grave but we also shouldn’t assume until they’re fully in it and the dirt is atop them as they’ve pulled out of tricky situations before and all it requires is a big misstep or two on the part of China in the right areas to extend their life another century.
We must be on guard. We must assume the worst comes to pass and prepare for it. We’ll hope for the best of course and we will always keep the hope for a better future under communism in our hearts. But our bodies and minds we steel for the battle.
I understand your sentiment, and I’m not claiming that the CPC is psychic. I’m just saying I think they’ve earned some faith. Not in a religious way, and I agree with preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.
Your scenario assumes western capitalists would be okay with them being sanctioned out of their factories and supply chains in China and being forced to relocate elsewhere, or that China wouldn’t reciprocate with such sanctions if provoked. Russian gas is one thing, the factory of the world is another. It would mean global shortages of basically every product out there. That’s one scenario where I could see the US getting couped by level-headed capitalists just to restore the economic status quo.
Well the thing is, there are multiple factions of bourgeoisie in the US. Some are for this, some are quite against and even friendly towards China and against current sanctions and tensions. It’s really about who is at the wheel and has power right now and it looks to me like the defense industry types and such currently have the upper hand. After all capitalism doesn’t survive in a vacuum, it needs the exploitation of imperialism that China is going to destroy. Those capitalists who don’t want some sort of confrontation with China could be said to be ignorant of how the system works. Because once that exploitation of the global south ends, they’re fucked on the home-front.
The thing is, they think they can do this and China will just be forced to take it. Because the truth is, if China just stops shipments to the west (US/Europe), their economy will burst into flames as well. They’ll have to either let it burn for a while or nationalize and still suffer some pains but also scare off any remaining investors after seizing assets. China is trying to work to minimize the effects of this but it will take time, time during which they’re still vulnerable and have to choose between sort of working economy that’s hamstrung by the west to just blowing the whole thing up and going home. Because as noted in regards to naval power beyond the SCS, if they do cut off the west, the west might retaliate by preventing their goods reaching African, Latin American and Asian markets by boat which would be a problem as Russia, China, and the current BRI neighbor countries aren’t enough to support China’s economy or manufacturing base. It would also be something that would force even the China-friendly capitalists in the US to greenlight emergency measure to re-shore manufacturing in India, perhaps the west short term, etc and would force a decoupling. Now whether the western proles would take this or rise up is the real question. But it’s just too many ifs and very dangerous for China and the world.
So lots of things /could/ happen. The US could get couped, things could be walked back. But lots of things could spiral out of control too, those sympathetic to China and against the imperialist plot could be arrested or killed as well. The thing is, the intelligence apparatus is loyal I think to the hawkish elements and would not choose to help coup against them unless it served some greater chessboard plot of theirs.
I think you’re raising very fair points, but I think you’re being woefully too pessimistic. I won’t knock on you for that, because the difference between being a realist and pessimistic is like planck-length.
I think you’re slightly underestimating the brilliance and tactical leadership of the CPC, who are basically required to plan things out a century in advance.
I think you’re overestimating the ability of humans and communist parties to plan things out a century in advance when other humans are involved. The situation is ever changing in ways no one can predict. Lenin never though he’d live to see the revolution, yet he not only lived to see it, he and others had to take steps, make changes to help it succeed as it occurred and react to developments underway to secure it.
If next year for example against all apparent odds France moved over into the Chinese sphere because of various pains, who could foresee that? Yet a good tactician would have to adjust based on that happening, not steam ahead merrily “trusting in the plan” like some Q conspiracy weirdo.
This is why communists have 5 year plans. Because while one can plan things in the abstract long-term and set goals, the short-term requires tinkering, adjustments, reactions to developments.
When they bought Cisco equipment from the Americans for example, did they plan on it having NSA hardware spy implants that allowed them to map their networks, infiltrate their systems, spy on them extensively? When they banned Tesla’s after the fact from government facilities because of their internet connected cameras was that forethought or a reaction to someone realizing (a little later than they should have probably) that “oh shit, the Americans have used their companies to spy on us in the past (Cisco), they’ll probably do it again”?
The CPC has done a great deal of good and shown great competency on many fronts but they’ve been very badly underestimating the duplicity, backstabbing dishonesty of the US for a few decades now. I’m sure there are voices within it who knew better but on the whole many developments have caught them by surprise. Among other things I think one of the reasons the US has been accelerating their freak-out about China is because it’s gone dark for their spies, they finally rooted out the hardware implant compromised devices, the malware they implanted and their human-int networks. It certainly wasn’t the CPC plan to be compromised deeply by CIA bribes and corruption or any of these other problems. Xi has been reacting to the reality he found and trying to fix it. It wasn’t their plan to have images of party officials being forced to sell en-mass their imported Audi luxury sedans by Xi’s push. Forethought would have meant never allowing it to start.
Nor is it the CPC plan to re-unify Taiwan by force. And yet they don’t get to decide that. The US does because it is their puppet and they can at a time of their choosing make them cross red lines until the CPC reacts (or else until the CPC decides not to and is shown to not really care about their red lines but that too is a departure from the plans).
The CPC have been following basic Marxism-Leninism, it’s really the foolish Americans who have fucked up and hung themselves with their own rope by misstep after misstep. If they’d moved to crush China economically and encircle it in the 90s instead of off-shoring for medium-term profits China would be in a much different situation with a much steeper, more perilous climb ahead of them in a very hostile world. If they’d just given Russia more concessions they could have turned them against China at the mere cost of a competitor capitalist bloc. The CPC has good planners but a lot of it is taking advantage of western capitalist own-goals against themselves. And to do that you have to react to the situation at hand and adjust.
The strength of Marxism-Leninism is the ability to react to changing circumstances and be adapted to new or changing conditions. It isn’t a bible. It isn’t a master plan with every step planned out. It’s a scientific approach to dealing with the situation you find yourself in.
The west is full of greedy, short-term-thinking fools and it is very likely they’ve already dug their own grave but we also shouldn’t assume until they’re fully in it and the dirt is atop them as they’ve pulled out of tricky situations before and all it requires is a big misstep or two on the part of China in the right areas to extend their life another century.
We must be on guard. We must assume the worst comes to pass and prepare for it. We’ll hope for the best of course and we will always keep the hope for a better future under communism in our hearts. But our bodies and minds we steel for the battle.
I understand your sentiment, and I’m not claiming that the CPC is psychic. I’m just saying I think they’ve earned some faith. Not in a religious way, and I agree with preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.
All good points. The situation is always an uphill battle, but the only path is forward.