No maps yet, it started few hours ago, probably coming tomorrow.
Looks like Russians pinned a bunch of Ukrainian forces around Chasov Yar after the Avdeevka breakthrough. This is a critical problem for Ukraine because there aren’t any fortification in depth, so losing these strongholds means Russia would be easily able to advance all the way to Dnepr. As a result, Ukraine threw their best brigades to try and slow down Russian advance at all costs. Now it looks like Russia is opening up a second front from the north, and we’ll see if Ukraine has the resources to fight on both fronts or whether they’ll be forced to sacrifice one to try and hold the other. Of course, if Russia makes a major breakthrough in either area then it’s likely that the whole front is going to start collapsing anyways. The next few weeks might be a pivotal moment in the war.
Yes, apparently they’re stretching the front so far that the Ukronazi defenses are being breached in multiple places and they can’t hold them because they’re missing manpower. I’ve also heard that there is a large gathering of troops in Bryansk and Kursk near Sumy and Chernihiv Oblasts so it’s possible that there are plans to stretch the front a the across the whole border. Ukronazis are already pushed 4km in Kharkiv. Tonight is going to be a big night considering that offensive will be in full speed in Kharkiv.
It’s probably worth waiting a few days to see how this develops, but definitely looks that it could be significant. Russian approach has been generally very cautious, so they might just be probing right now. However, if Ukraine is really as short on manpower and ammunition as they appear to be, then Russia might start a serious offensive.
Ukraine might be on the brink of collapse but it’s still capable of inflicting losses to the Russians, especially using drones. As the Russians themselves have said, the nature of warfare has changed a lot due to the introduction of cheap small drones in the battlefield. Any significant mass of men, weapon platforms or ammunition is instantly targeted. Therefore, the tactical approach now for both Russia and Ukraine is to use very small groups of soldiers in any attack, so as not to attract drone attacks. Furthermore, massed artillery is no longer practical due to the target they would present and neither is storing ammo/supplies in large quantities anywhere near the front, as they’d be extremely vulnerable to drones.
Also, we should keep in mind that due to constant satellite surveillance, all the above can be identified and targeted very easily. Also, the surveillance makes it hard for Russians to draw or prepare to execute massive pushes, as they would be easily anticipated. Therefore, they try to keep things moving everywhere all at once, and wait for advantages to develop before pouring resources to those sectors that would prove the most beneficial.
Hence, any advances made are small and incremental. The advantage that Russia has now is that it can perform these advances everywhere at the same time, and, because the Ukrainian ability to respond has been minimized, most of these small advances can be immediately successful.
That’s my understanding of things as well. Big concentrations of troops become vulnerable and easy to track. The approach of creating a broad front is the obvious alternative. Ultimately, Russia’s goal is attrition, but splitting the front would also be very valuable. Seems like after the collapse of Avdeevka, there’s nowhere to fall back to, so Russia could end up pushing all the way to Dnepr, an then Ukraine will lose all communication between the north and the south.
When will they come back for Kherson?
I hope soon, they’ll probably finish Donbas, Kharkiv Oblast and Zaporizhzhia Oblast before it, all the focus is there.
