I think if socialism comes back to Europe, it will come as a tide that sweeps over multiple countries at a time, as it did in Latin America. I suspect that countries are likelier to be included in such a tide the closer they are to Russia and China and the less they depend on the USA. As China’s soft power extends, communist parties will slowly gain support in Greece and the Balkans, then Portugal, and possibly Switzerland and Ireland. I also see a dark horse in Austria where the ML wing of the KPÖ is governing Graz.
Then, it would come to the economic heavyweights Italy, France, Germany, Spain, and the UK in that order, provided the current neoliberal governments continue to find themselves being pulled into the Ukraine machine, meaning they would fail to provide large parts of their populations with basic necessities such as food, gas, petrol, and clean hot water. A socialist victory in France and Germany combined would likely sway the Benelux states, and a socialist Germany and Austria would force a socialist Czech Republic and Slovakia by sheer economic dependence. The Northern powers Denmark, Sweden and Norway would be able to delay such a fate thanks to their low populations and their own resources.
The bastions holding out the longest against a socialist tide would be located in the East and Northeast, that is Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, and what remains of Ukraine. Some people in high positions - or indeed behind the scenes - in these countries are beyond redemption, and they know that socialism would mean their deaths, which is why they currently do everything in their power to push their respective countries towards fascism.
I think if socialism comes back to Europe, it will come as a tide that sweeps over multiple countries at a time, as it did in Latin America. I suspect that countries are likelier to be included in such a tide the closer they are to Russia and China and the less they depend on the USA. As China’s soft power extends, communist parties will slowly gain support in Greece and the Balkans, then Portugal, and possibly Switzerland and Ireland. I also see a dark horse in Austria where the ML wing of the KPÖ is governing Graz.
Then, it would come to the economic heavyweights Italy, France, Germany, Spain, and the UK in that order, provided the current neoliberal governments continue to find themselves being pulled into the Ukraine machine, meaning they would fail to provide large parts of their populations with basic necessities such as food, gas, petrol, and clean hot water. A socialist victory in France and Germany combined would likely sway the Benelux states, and a socialist Germany and Austria would force a socialist Czech Republic and Slovakia by sheer economic dependence. The Northern powers Denmark, Sweden and Norway would be able to delay such a fate thanks to their low populations and their own resources.
The bastions holding out the longest against a socialist tide would be located in the East and Northeast, that is Finland, the Baltic states, Poland, Hungary, and what remains of Ukraine. Some people in high positions - or indeed behind the scenes - in these countries are beyond redemption, and they know that socialism would mean their deaths, which is why they currently do everything in their power to push their respective countries towards fascism.
Turn the Danube red!