How long will this last? Recent developments certainly aren’t tipping the global balance in favour of the West. On the one hand, it is becoming increasingly apparent that Nato’s strategy in Ukraine isn’t working: not only is Ukraine facing heavy losses, while the West unable to keep up with Ukrainian demands for ammunition and equipment, but the sanctions have hurt Western countries, as well as developing ones. On the other, the financial crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank is yet another reminder of the intrinsic instability of the West’s hyper-financialised brand of capitalism.
Only last week, America’s global standing took another hit with the signing of a historic agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia brokered by China (while, it should be noted, the Saudi foreign minister was in Moscow). As part of the deal, Iran has agreed to stop arming Houthis in Yemen, potentially paving the way to a resolution to the nine-year-long Yemeni war. Writing in Newsweek, David H. Rundell, a former chief of mission at the American Embassy in Saudi Arabia explained that the deal will be seen as “a watershed moment for Chinese influence in the Middle East”, while further eroding America’s already poor reputation in the region.
Yemen and Palestine are the things that bother me. With the Saudis and Israel being trade partners with China I have to wonder how it all goes down even if the US isn’t able to keep propping them up. I guess it’s too idealist to hope for a quick and satisfying victory, seems more like it will be a slow burn to solve complicated negotiations.
If China pivots to being the principal international partner of Israel and SA, it could mean changes are on the way. While the US is in the picture, change is very difficult. But as the US falls apart, China will naturally become the main influence in the region and can broker peace as soon as the US is weak enough. China couldn’t do that if it didn’t get involved at all. China will be able to achieve what the USSR could not but China must not fall into the trap of direct military involvement, e.g. like the USSR did in Afghanistan. (I’m not saying that China is the only hope for Palestine and Yemen, just that a Chinese solution is one option.)
Idk if Israel question even was on the table, but don’t forget it was a deal. If Iran agreed to stop arming Houthis, SA sure did promised something in return. And for sure this was not the only point of that agreement.