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  • @Shrike502
    link
    41 year ago

    All post-Soviet republics are comprador to some degree, Rusia included. However, the current Georgian government has been taking steps to try and “sit on two chairs” as we say here. They put Saakashvili in jail for example (that’s the guy who became president after the last colour coup, also was advisor to post-maidan UA government). They’ve been much less agressive that what was expected following the start of the SMO, etc.

    As to why I think a second front is opening, well, take a gander:

    This is from March 8th. There are simply too many parallels with how color coups have been organized in the past. And unlike CNN subscribers I have no faith in this being just some “protest for freedom”, nor do I believe that it’s just “fighting for sovereignity”. There’s been too many precedents in the past 30 years of how these things go and what follows. And there have been suspiciously timed flare-ups of violence all over post-Soviet area during 2022. A massive riot (for the lack of a better term) in Kazakhstan, just before SMO. Another round of violence in Karabakh region. Artillery “exchange” between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan which just so happened to coincide with SCO summit.

    Plus there’s been talks about cooperation between post-coup Ukraine and Georgia around the 2008 war. I don’t have sources on hand (it’s been a long while), but I know that Russian media claimed that Ukraine was actively supplying Georgia with anti-air systems just prior to Georgia’s assault on Ossetia. Systems, that were reportedly quite efficient against Russian air force. And nowadays there’s a “Georgian Legion” (coincidentally sharing a name with an SS formation from the WWII) fighting in Ukraine on Kiev’s behalf.

    Now does that mean I expect some kind of military operation against Russia from Georgia’s side should the coup be successful? Not necessary. But it will create another troublesome region, another point on the border that will require attention and resources. Or I could be wrong, and the first thing the new government will do is to start shelling Ossetia again.