I believe (although it is unlikely that Russia would even completely annex Ukraine) in the event of complete annexation Ukraine would probably just become the 22nd Russian republic with a high degree of autonomy like Tuva, Dagestan or Chechnya. This autonomy coupled with a stronger national economy, a larger military, and the ability to freely travel throughout all of Russia seems like a pretty good deal to me (a Western ML with limited knowledge of the situation, granted).
Not to say that the Russian autonomous republic model even compares to the Soviet one, or that bad faith actors would not try to totally destroy Ukrainian national identity. But I think the Union State is a good idea (Belarus and Russia as one state and two nations)… Ukraine could almost certainly easily be a part of that, were they not ruled by comprador westaboos.
For sure, and not to venerate Putin (obligatory caveat etc etc) but he’s been calling for something functionally similar with liquid borders between Ukraine and Russia and just recognition that they share much of the same national history.
Lukashenko also called for this last year in January, he was talking something about ‘‘getting Ukraine back’’ and uniting with Russia, Ukraine and even Kazakhstan(idk why Kazakhstan).
Kazakhstan is on the same trajectory back towards a federation state as Belorussia, their membership in the security organization which put down that colour revolution recently was a good indicator.
Nations in the region seem to understand that they’re either going to get enslaved by the west (Armenia seems not too keen on having Azerbajan invading, Georgia is not too keen of becoming a battering ram against Russia again, Kazakhstan is interested in developping its lands, not having jihadists running around beheading people, and no one wants to be the second Ukraine) or unite under a common banner. So currently they’re in the phase of finding acceptable conditions with the gravitational center, that is Russia, for such a union. At least that’s how it seems to me.
I hope that after liberation of Ukraine, there will be unification between whatever is left with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, along with Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Artsakh and maybe Armenia.
I also don’t think they will annex entire Ukraine. There’s the issue of Ukraine not being unified country. I mostly wonder if Russia will try for Odessa and for the full Black Sea run. It’s probable because that part of russian interest didn’t changed since at least Peter I. That would also give them land border with Transnistria. And would leave Ukraine as only Galicia rump state, probably unstable and full of terrorists. Thing is, this instability and terrorism would in very large part be aimed at Europe and be buffer state - but on the other hand, Russia might be up for the challenge anyway since no one would want such buffer state at the borders, and Ukraine sowing terror across Europe is in the USA interest as well.
Also it all depends on how the war would end, since wars have nasty habits of not going according to plans.
I believe (although it is unlikely that Russia would even completely annex Ukraine) in the event of complete annexation Ukraine would probably just become the 22nd Russian republic with a high degree of autonomy like Tuva, Dagestan or Chechnya. This autonomy coupled with a stronger national economy, a larger military, and the ability to freely travel throughout all of Russia seems like a pretty good deal to me (a Western ML with limited knowledge of the situation, granted).
Not to say that the Russian autonomous republic model even compares to the Soviet one, or that bad faith actors would not try to totally destroy Ukrainian national identity. But I think the Union State is a good idea (Belarus and Russia as one state and two nations)… Ukraine could almost certainly easily be a part of that, were they not ruled by comprador westaboos.
Russia, Belarus and Ukraine in one country would be a good start
For sure, and not to venerate Putin (obligatory caveat etc etc) but he’s been calling for something functionally similar with liquid borders between Ukraine and Russia and just recognition that they share much of the same national history.
Lukashenko also called for this last year in January, he was talking something about ‘‘getting Ukraine back’’ and uniting with Russia, Ukraine and even Kazakhstan(idk why Kazakhstan).
Kazakhstan is on the same trajectory back towards a federation state as Belorussia, their membership in the security organization which put down that colour revolution recently was a good indicator.
Nations in the region seem to understand that they’re either going to get enslaved by the west (Armenia seems not too keen on having Azerbajan invading, Georgia is not too keen of becoming a battering ram against Russia again, Kazakhstan is interested in developping its lands, not having jihadists running around beheading people, and no one wants to be the second Ukraine) or unite under a common banner. So currently they’re in the phase of finding acceptable conditions with the gravitational center, that is Russia, for such a union. At least that’s how it seems to me.
I hope that after liberation of Ukraine, there will be unification between whatever is left with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, along with Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Artsakh and maybe Armenia.
Kazakhstan is the centerpiece of the Central Asia, and have huge economic potential.
And then Transnistria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Artsakh can also join.
The uh, more’s the merrier? 😅
(interesting article re: Lukashenko’s views on Central Asia https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2022/07/03/2737893/lukashenko-next-battle-for-redivision-of-world-will-be-in-central-asia )
I also don’t think they will annex entire Ukraine. There’s the issue of Ukraine not being unified country. I mostly wonder if Russia will try for Odessa and for the full Black Sea run. It’s probable because that part of russian interest didn’t changed since at least Peter I. That would also give them land border with Transnistria. And would leave Ukraine as only Galicia rump state, probably unstable and full of terrorists. Thing is, this instability and terrorism would in very large part be aimed at Europe and be buffer state - but on the other hand, Russia might be up for the challenge anyway since no one would want such buffer state at the borders, and Ukraine sowing terror across Europe is in the USA interest as well.
Also it all depends on how the war would end, since wars have nasty habits of not going according to plans.