I definitely expect to start seeing the collapse of Ukrainian military and the state itself in the coming months. It’s simply impossible to run a modern war without functional infrastructure. Once Russia got serious about destroying infrastructure it was obvious that the whole house of cards was going to collapse in short order.

People keep fixating on the battle lines, but that’s not really what matters when you look at the big picture. It’s the logistics of being able to run the country and to supply the army. Ukraine is rapidly losing the ability to do either.

Sadly, this is just the primary Ukrainian armed forces. Hopefully they will peacefully capitulate, but due to Western influence there is a strong possibility that Ukrainian units will disperse and begin a terror and guerilla campaign similar in style to the Chechen terrorists.

I am not so sure about that. Not unless Russia decides it wants to take things up a notch. For now they seem content with the pace they are going, i’ve heard this refered to by Russian commentators as a “Goldilocks war”. If they go too slow or freeze the conflict that just leaves Ukraine time to rebuild and rearm but if they go too fast it may spook their international allies who expect a more gradual escalation, and it wouldn’t leave the West sufficiently weakened for Russia to achieve its larger strategic goals. For now it seems the Kremlin has decided to turn Ukraine into a black hole that sucks up all the money and armament of NATO and let Europe commit suicide. Was it Sun Tzu i believe who said don’t interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake? Russia has been taking lessons from China in a couple of different ways lately.