I think it’ll be a net new thing. The US military will fight skirmishes against a dozen different militaries in multiple oceans, and at some point will end up fighting itself as well.
Domestically Americans will be dealing with paramilitaries running wild with attempts to purge the unpatriotic and counter paramilitaries trying to stop them. The military/NatGuard will end up deployed domestically but won’t have total spatial control so a lot of surveillance and recon will be done by local police.
All the domestic forces will break rank piecemeal across time and join with the paramilitary groups that first meet their ideological needs and then eventually their material needs. This will continue until something decisive happens in the oceans. Either the US military breaks at which point the mainland will see a hard push for a new central power structure to run a guerilla war against the inevitable invasion of the mainland by a coalition of the anti-imperialist, or the US military purges their splitters and wins decisive victories (even if it uses nukes) and then a battle between domestic fascists and domestic communists will emerge.
The worst case scenario is the US decisively winning against the world with WMDs, because that will almost certainly suppress the domestic communist movement for another 2 generations, which prevents an anti-imperialist consensus from moving forward along any pathway.
The best case scenario is a decades long world war where the North Atlantic becomes encircles by an anti-imperialist consensus and then Europe eventually flips and the final project becomes dismantling the USA over a period of years while all the citizens fight amongst themselves.
As much as I love fanfic and stuff, I gotta say, without sitting here and digging too deep…
What domestic communists? In the US right now the number of actual leftists* is so fucking tiny. Educated or at least willing to listen to those who are? I’d be generous to say it’s even 1% of the population. Things can change, sure, but they barely changed in the last 2-3 decades where material conditions have rapidly fallen for the average US citizen. In 1960 I get why it would be difficult to convert the average white dude. In 2023 they should already be in the streets doing insert FBI would love me to say stuff here things. But the reality is… they just aren’t. There’s reasons for it, it’s on purpose obviously, but it’s still happening. Whatever actual left movement could exist simply does not at this point.
And just a small thing. Unless you’re talking 200 years from now in a totally different world, there will NEVER be some anti imperialist land invasion of the US. If even seriously considered by nations powerful enough (China basically right now but a coalition could form within Africa or whatever) it would end pretty quickly in nuclear exchange and ending of the world effectively for humans. The most likely thing is the world trying to ignore the US and let it just collapse on itself and never bother with some risky and impossible liberation of NA mission.
*my simple definition is anti-capitalist, anti-imperialist (which as an American basically means anti-US military. Weirdly hard hurdle for many!), anti-NATO, anti-colonialism in all forms. Probably some other stuff too but that’s like the low bar and it can’t be just statements but rather principled takes which can be articulated to some degree. Claiming to support Palestine then also saying Israel has a right to exist, for example, is not acceptable to me. I’ll accept blind “USA BAD!” As a fill-in.)
I can totally understand your pessimism and skepticism, but I must caution to not lose yourself in it. Things will definitely get worse before they get better, and shit is going to go down. But I believe there is a silver lining to darkness and suffering, in that it will allow us new opportunities to organize, resist and become who we truly are on the inside. Obviously it won’t be sunshine and roses, but we communists have faced worse odds before and won.
Yeah I agree that there is pretty much no real tangible presence of communists in the US or any of the western countries. However, there is a multi-national working class that will stumble and meander between socialist ideas and fascist ones, and will pretty much still fight its ruling class. There will be a breakdown of the country along racial and class lines, and in this sharp class war, there will be an explosion of class consciousness and a socialist renaissance. Will it be enough to fight the fascists? Probably not. The most likely outcome is the balkanization of the US and the end of the US federal government as we know it. The biggest historical development towards building of socialism.
What domestic communists? In the US right now the number of actual leftists* is so fucking tiny
I’m talking about war over a decade or more. The domestic communists will be partly USian but also come from outside the US. The borders don’t really matter when it comes to this. Also, USian communists will grow in numbers if there is a war.
Educated or at least willing to listen to those who are? I’d be generous to say it’s even 1% of the population.
Labor unions are an obvious place to increase numbers without needing to increase education.
but they barely changed in the last 2-3 decades where material conditions have rapidly fallen for the average US citizen
Nowhere near how bad it’s about the get.
there will NEVER be some anti imperialist land invasion of the US
This is assuming the US loses it’s Navy. Let’s imagine a BRICS alliance that counters NATO. If BRICS breaks the US Navy, then I guarantee there would eventually be a land invasion of the US specifically to create a firewall for protecting indigenous and black nations from marauding US fascists. It has to happen because allowing the US to just wipe the entire Western hemisphere of non-whites is not viable for the rest of the world to survive. They MUST stop the European virus from spreading and consolidating if they are going to have a sustainable future society.
it would end pretty quickly in nuclear exchange and ending of the world effectively for humans
I don’t think so. I think after the Navy breaks, if the nukes haven’t flown already, they won’t fly.
The most likely thing is the world trying to ignore the US and let it just collapse on itself and never bother with some risky and impossible liberation of NA mission.
There’s no such thing as collapse on itself. There’s nukes here. The US collapsing is going to result in an explicit nuclear death cult. The US occupies the hemisphere, it does not belong here. If society collapses, it means mass white death, which isn’t going to happen before mass mobilization of white supremacists along religious and mystical lines. I think the rest of the world sees the US as a very dangerous thing to sustain and a more dangerous thing to collapse and therefore will be required to physically participate in dismantling it deliberately. Which is why all of this is predicated on breaking the Navy first and significantly constraining the freedom of movement in the air.
I think it’ll be a net new thing. The US military will fight skirmishes against a dozen different militaries in multiple oceans, and at some point will end up fighting itself as well.
Domestically Americans will be dealing with paramilitaries running wild with attempts to purge the unpatriotic and counter paramilitaries trying to stop them. The military/NatGuard will end up deployed domestically but won’t have total spatial control so a lot of surveillance and recon will be done by local police.
All the domestic forces will break rank piecemeal across time and join with the paramilitary groups that first meet their ideological needs and then eventually their material needs. This will continue until something decisive happens in the oceans. Either the US military breaks at which point the mainland will see a hard push for a new central power structure to run a guerilla war against the inevitable invasion of the mainland by a coalition of the anti-imperialist, or the US military purges their splitters and wins decisive victories (even if it uses nukes) and then a battle between domestic fascists and domestic communists will emerge.
The worst case scenario is the US decisively winning against the world with WMDs, because that will almost certainly suppress the domestic communist movement for another 2 generations, which prevents an anti-imperialist consensus from moving forward along any pathway.
The best case scenario is a decades long world war where the North Atlantic becomes encircles by an anti-imperialist consensus and then Europe eventually flips and the final project becomes dismantling the USA over a period of years while all the citizens fight amongst themselves.
As much as I love fanfic and stuff, I gotta say, without sitting here and digging too deep…
What domestic communists? In the US right now the number of actual leftists* is so fucking tiny. Educated or at least willing to listen to those who are? I’d be generous to say it’s even 1% of the population. Things can change, sure, but they barely changed in the last 2-3 decades where material conditions have rapidly fallen for the average US citizen. In 1960 I get why it would be difficult to convert the average white dude. In 2023 they should already be in the streets doing insert FBI would love me to say stuff here things. But the reality is… they just aren’t. There’s reasons for it, it’s on purpose obviously, but it’s still happening. Whatever actual left movement could exist simply does not at this point.
And just a small thing. Unless you’re talking 200 years from now in a totally different world, there will NEVER be some anti imperialist land invasion of the US. If even seriously considered by nations powerful enough (China basically right now but a coalition could form within Africa or whatever) it would end pretty quickly in nuclear exchange and ending of the world effectively for humans. The most likely thing is the world trying to ignore the US and let it just collapse on itself and never bother with some risky and impossible liberation of NA mission.
*my simple definition is anti-capitalist, anti-imperialist (which as an American basically means anti-US military. Weirdly hard hurdle for many!), anti-NATO, anti-colonialism in all forms. Probably some other stuff too but that’s like the low bar and it can’t be just statements but rather principled takes which can be articulated to some degree. Claiming to support Palestine then also saying Israel has a right to exist, for example, is not acceptable to me. I’ll accept blind “USA BAD!” As a fill-in.)
I can totally understand your pessimism and skepticism, but I must caution to not lose yourself in it. Things will definitely get worse before they get better, and shit is going to go down. But I believe there is a silver lining to darkness and suffering, in that it will allow us new opportunities to organize, resist and become who we truly are on the inside. Obviously it won’t be sunshine and roses, but we communists have faced worse odds before and won.
Yeah I agree that there is pretty much no real tangible presence of communists in the US or any of the western countries. However, there is a multi-national working class that will stumble and meander between socialist ideas and fascist ones, and will pretty much still fight its ruling class. There will be a breakdown of the country along racial and class lines, and in this sharp class war, there will be an explosion of class consciousness and a socialist renaissance. Will it be enough to fight the fascists? Probably not. The most likely outcome is the balkanization of the US and the end of the US federal government as we know it. The biggest historical development towards building of socialism.
I’m talking about war over a decade or more. The domestic communists will be partly USian but also come from outside the US. The borders don’t really matter when it comes to this. Also, USian communists will grow in numbers if there is a war.
Labor unions are an obvious place to increase numbers without needing to increase education.
Nowhere near how bad it’s about the get.
This is assuming the US loses it’s Navy. Let’s imagine a BRICS alliance that counters NATO. If BRICS breaks the US Navy, then I guarantee there would eventually be a land invasion of the US specifically to create a firewall for protecting indigenous and black nations from marauding US fascists. It has to happen because allowing the US to just wipe the entire Western hemisphere of non-whites is not viable for the rest of the world to survive. They MUST stop the European virus from spreading and consolidating if they are going to have a sustainable future society.
I don’t think so. I think after the Navy breaks, if the nukes haven’t flown already, they won’t fly.
There’s no such thing as collapse on itself. There’s nukes here. The US collapsing is going to result in an explicit nuclear death cult. The US occupies the hemisphere, it does not belong here. If society collapses, it means mass white death, which isn’t going to happen before mass mobilization of white supremacists along religious and mystical lines. I think the rest of the world sees the US as a very dangerous thing to sustain and a more dangerous thing to collapse and therefore will be required to physically participate in dismantling it deliberately. Which is why all of this is predicated on breaking the Navy first and significantly constraining the freedom of movement in the air.