I’ve been hearing this a lot in climate change circles implying that the entire human race will be extinct in 30 years due to excessive heat. I get that climate change is a serious concern, but is this pushing it too far in regards to fearmongering? Or is this a legitimate prospect?
When the Earth hits a Blue Ocean Event (the ice is entirely gone from the arctic) the Earth is going to warm ridiculously causing a complete collapse in the ability to grow grain at the size needed for a population at 8 billion
Couple this in with a rising tides which are going to displace hundreds of millions of refugees internally and externally (which will fuel wars/resource grabs etc.)
I’m of the opinion that billlions are going to die due to our failure to put a bullet in the head of capitalism
Must watch videos with very good research: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsA3PK8bQd8
Human race? No. Large numbers of dead, like half or more? Yes.
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We probably won’t have a mass extinction event from climate change, and a lotta science communicators have been hamming up the (frankly terrible) effects of climate change itself.
Stuff’s going to get really bad, it’s going to force a major shift in our societies, and many will likely die from it. But, we’re more likely to survive the event than we are to all die from it. I think science communicators like to drum up panic on this, because smudging the more likely outcomes in favor of the scarier ones makes people want to do more about climate change.
edit: it should also be said that we genuinely have no way of knowing what the future will hold, so anyone who’s saying in no uncertain terms how things will happen is likely pulling it out of their ass for effect. All of the projected assumptions are based on observations and "what if"s, not on strictly materialist scientific analysis. The most scientists are able to do is look at calculations and say “well, based on these numbers and what we know about species of trees, we can assume these specific species will be wiped out. And based on these numbers and what we understand about glaciers and the poles, water levels should start to rise at alarming rates.” We really have no solid way of then saying “oh and all of humanity is fucked forever” because there’s no way to calculate for something with this many variables.
If anything, the scientists have not been vocal enough about the severity of the crisis. While humanity going extinct is not the most likely scenario, it’s certainly a possible one. Our biosphere is collapsing rapidly, and global warming is happening much faster than our models predicted. It’s now likely that we’re going to hit 1.5c threshold as early as 2024. We’re also hitting tipping points such as the permafrost melting and releasing massive amounts of methane that create a feedback loop completely out of our control. Here’s are a few things currently happening:
- defaunation
- humans just 0.01% of all life but have destroyed 83% of wild mammals
- humanity has wiped out 60% of animal populations since 1970, report finds
We’re already seeing a global ecosystem collapse:
- study finds ocean ecosystems likely to collapse in 2020s and land species in 2040s unless global warming stemmed
- studies show drought and heat waves will cause massive die-offs, killing most trees alive today.
- multiple overlapping crises could trigger ‘Global Systemic Collapse’
- 246 academics call on government to act now to avoid global collapse
- Planet’s largest ecosystems collapse faster than previously forecast
World’s oceans are also acidifying to a similar rate as the Permian extinction (but again in 100 years instead of 20k-60k), with an anoxic event locked in after 1,000ppm or 360 gigatons, which we will reach by 2100 at the latest. So that’s whatever’s left wiped out.
And here’s what’s currently happening with food production. Two different groups of 200+ scientists and academics, separately from each other, each warned of near-term global collapse:
- https://www.sciencealert.com/hundreds-of-top-scientists-warn-combined-environmental-crises-will-cause-global-collapse
- https://www.nationalobserver.com/2020/02/04/opinion/246-academics-call-government-act-now-avoid-global-collapse
Examples of record-breaking crop failures currently happening:
- https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2019/06/midwest-rain-climate-change-wrecking-corn-soy-crops/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/19/extreme-heat-wave-hits-us-farmers-already-suffering-from-flooding.html
- https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/may/15/australia-to-import-wheat-for-first-time-in-12-years-as-drought-eats-into-grain-production
- https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/20/crop-failure-and-bankruptcy-threaten-farmers-as-drought-grips-europe
- https://www.zerohedge.com/health/historic-midwest-blizzard-has-farmers-seeing-massive-crop-lossesas-devastating-weve-ever
- https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-02/low-rice-crop-leads-to-sunrice-job-losses/11566748?pfmredir=sm
- https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/climate-and-people/climate-change-could-cut-fruit-production-almost-third-study/
- https://phys.org/news/2019-12-climate-whammy-corn-belt.html
- https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/11/12/britain-facing-potato-shortage-failure-dredge-rivers-led-flooding/
- https://weather.com/science/environment/news/2019-08-01-drought-dam-drive-mekong-river-to-lowest-level-in-100-years
- https://phys.org/news/2020-01-atlantic-circulation-collapse-british-crop.html
- https://phys.org/news/2019-12-climate-threat-global-breadbaskets.html
- https://phys.org/news/2019-12-large-atmospheric-jet-stream-global.html
Scientific studies projecting future crop failures:
- Schlenker and Roberts, 2009. Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to US crop yields under climate change. PNAS, 106(37), pp.15594-15598
- Mora et al, 2015. Suitable days for plant growth disappear under projected climate change: Potential human and biotic vulnerability. PLoS bio, 13(6), p.e1002167
- Schauberger et al, 2017. Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models. Nature Comms, 8, p.13931.
- Sakschewski et al, 2014. Feeding 10 billion people under climate change: How large is the production gap of current agricultural systems?. Ecological modelling, 288, pp.103-111
- Liang et al, 2017. Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity. PNAS, 114(12), pp.E2285-E2292
News articles about projected crop failures:
Just what I needed on a Monday thanks
on a serious note this is a quality post and should probably be posted as it’s own piece
Thanks, might try compile a thread on this later to post.
Also as ocean currents change, Europe will get completely fucked because the Gulf Stream is what allows them to have a temperate climate at that latitude. France is at the same latitude as southern Quebec
Yeah, many people don’t realize is that the warming isn’t going to be distributed evenly. Some parts of the globe will become too hot to be liveable while others will actually have temperature drops due to the changing wind currents.
when should I exchange all my liquidity for physical assets?
I’m not a financial expert, but I don’t think holding liquidity is a good idea at the moment. At some point the whole financial economy is going to collapse and then liquidity will just become monopoly money.
Yes I’m worried about that too… I think I’m going to have to make a plan over the next few years to slowly pull most of it out of liquidity in preparation for that…
I feel like there is a lot of sensationalism when it comes to these things, imho.
