Its gonna get soo interesting over the next few years, as China overtakes the US in the tech sector, gets more and more cooler stuff, and the US makes it illegal. 5G and these apps are just the beginning.
I think the pandemic is going to shift the power balance there quite a bit. US used to be an economic powerhouse, and that allowed it to throw its weight around the way it did with Huawei and now trying to do with TikTok.
Their economy was already on the rocks before the pandemic, and the banks are running the same kind of scheme that caused the 2008 crash. There’s now 11% unemployment already with no economic recovery in sight, and a looming rental crisis as millions of people won’t be afford to pay rent. This translates to landlords not being able to pay their own fees. This will likely trigger massive foreclosures and bankruptcies feeding into the banking crisis problem. The pandemic is also destroying many businesses since people can’t afford to spend money on anything but necessities. As a result, their GDP has already shrunk by 32.9%.There’s also the oil crash which is hurting the petrodollar. And finally, we’re about to enter the summer disaster season which has been massively intensified by global warming. A model US themselves developed to see how states fail is predicting their own collapse now.
US is the number one trading partner for both Canada and EU, so once it can’t pull its weight then there will be little choice than to start doing more trade with China which is currently pretty much the only growing economy. I think this situation will drastically reduce US global influence, and their ability to get in the way of what China is doing.
Yup, the “bargain”, as its called, where China allowed limited exploitation of its workers in exchange for the import of productive equipment and technology, as a long term strategy is really paying off. The west exported nearly all world production to China, empowered finance capital whilst crippling its own domestic production, with the whole scheme relying on the power of the US military, and the buying power of the US dollar, both slowly waning as the US faces crisis after crisis.
IMO it’ll be a ripple effect throughout every western country. I’m in the US and my wife doesn’t want to leave yet, but I’m so over it. Not looking forward to the prospect of being in a crumbling empire and hoping the rubble doesn’t fall on me first.
Yeah, I completely agree with that. China very very cleverly played the long game here, and the West completely underestimated it. They saw what happened with the Soviet Union and thought that once they got Western companies doing business there then they’d quickly subvert it as well. Instead, China used Western tech to boost itself and become a superpower without ever becoming subservient to Western interests.
Another interesting aspect is that China has control over the companies and the industry, while the reverse is largely true in Western countries. Since these companies are still doing a lot of business in China, it’s very hard for the governments to take any strong stand against it.
I would definitely recommend migrating from US if you’re able to. I expect that the election might end up being a catalyst for mass civil unrest. Democrats and Republicans have basically split into two separate tribes that hate each other. Meanwhile, the Democratic party spent 4 years delegitimizing the electoral process with Russiagate. As soon as the public loses confidence in the integrity of the electoral process, then all bets are off. Both parties have a strong interest to claim the election is illegitimate because losing would be a political disaster for them.
It also looks like the Republicans are testing the waters to see what they’ll be able to get away with in case they lose. For example, Trump inciting his armed followers to storm governor’s offices, deploying DHS against the wishes of the local governments, attacking the press, nabbing people off the street, and so on. It’s not an unlikely scenario that they might just trying doing a coup when they lose.
Migrate? If all the socialists migrate out of America then who is going to fix this place? Sure, you individually might have better chances if you move, but are we just going to give up on America? It’s probably a moot point for most American Socialists, since most of us are too poor to go to another country on vacation, let alone live there. Since I am stuck here anyway I am going to fight for our liberation, as hopeless as it may seem. If we can save the American people, we will be saving the victims of US imperialism, and when China and USA are socialist that will be so much of the Earth’s population it would be unstoppable momentum. It won’t be easy, the US has the most propagandized population in the world, but if the US crumbles and it becomes obvious to even the most patriotic of Americans than US is not #1 at anything anymore and that democracy is dead, maybe people will be more open minded. Unfortunately so far is just seems like the Overtun window is widening instead of going Left.
You’re right of course, fighting back is the more productive option. If it’s possible to turn America socialist that would be by far the best outcome. I think that one promising factor is that a lot of grass roots organization happened during Bernie’s campaign. This connected a lot of people on the left, and established networks between them. Now that Bernie got pushed out of the race, a lot of these people are becoming radicalized. I really hope that can be turned into a movement if leaders emerge and start directing the riots towards larger political goals. The concerning part is that the right is also very organized and gets funding from rich, so the situation seems extremely volatile right now. Stay safe out there.
Fascism or extreme nationalism are more likely and have been the things that has been growing here, the reactionary nature of the middle class, the decentralized nature of the lower classes will lead to ruin. Will the federal union break up once more? Maybe, I can see factionalism take hold into multiple smaller groups, kind of like Balkanization without the whole ethnic cleansing although I won’t rule out roving bands of fascists in the minority who drive around murdering minorities which kind of also has been on the rise so there you go. The west is truly crumbling, the reactionary right is correct when they say the “west” is crumbling but like always they blame it on other people and not the system itself. Honestly I see no hope, my own personal sense of responsibility tells me I should stay and fight the good fight even if there’s little hope but also as I enter my 30s I begin to wonder if it’s better if I settle elsewhere and let the younger generation figure it out. But really I don’t see America ever becoming socialist, not before tearing itself up to pieces. England largely peacefully ended slavery, and England for the most part peacefully transitioned away from feudalism and autocracy if you of course don’t consider the 17th century civil war and Cromwell as the true bourgeois revolution in England. Either way I can see England make the transition based on historical materialism, but America? No, we had a bloody civil war to end slavery and the most intense racial conflict and genocide of Native Americans, those are contradictions that cannot be peacefully reconciled. The contradictions in America unfortunately will lead to bloody and violent collapse of which will allow the growth of a socialist country to grow in, like a Phoenix.
Don’t not misunderstand me in fetishizing violence because I really don’t want there to be a bloody revolution or violent collapse but the material realities of America herself is that she was founded upon blood and will end as she began. But despite me not wanting violence a historical analysis will show it will be necessary and so as Engel said in Principles of Communism, we would love it if we could achieve our goals with peace but if that’s not an option we will defend our cause with deeds as we defend it with words.
I think what’s happened is that the country effectively split into two tribes with the Democrats and the Republicans. Majority of the population now identifies as one faction or the other, and it seems like the differences are deeply irreconcilable at this point. The parties no longer compete on policy because there aren’t really any swing voters, but instead they try to rally their base by demonizing the other side, which further deepens the rift. So, I definitely agree that the split of the union is a highly probable scenario at this point.
The socialists appear to be a distinct and growing faction of disenfranchised people who see that both parties ultimately represent the oligarchy. The current protests are very promising as they show that there is a growing resistance to the system. I really hope to see some leadership emerge that starts working on real political goals.
Unfortunately, there’s also a strong fascist faction that’s bankrolled by the capitalists. And the question is going to be whether the organically organized grassroots movements will ultimately prevail over the fascists.
I definitely agree with your assessment that things are very likely to get bloody as the economy continues to deteriorate and millions of people end up being left behind. The material conditions are becoming right for a revolution.
The anti China fever continues to grow, and no I didn’t intend to make a pun. America’s anti-China sentiment continues to grow ever more reactionary as China’s economy grows. You hear things like China will never overtake us and this and that, as America and by extension the bourgeoisie realizes that China’s labor continues to grow ever more costly the bourgeoisie will attempt to increase exploitation in India and when they lose India they’ll have nowhere to turn but Africa. What happens when there’s no other place to maintain high profits? The American people will suffer due to worsening living standards and extremely high costs of things, Socialism is inevitable, Communism is inevitable.
My guilty hope is they lose so we can have a TikTok without yanks
I hope this isn’t bullshit news like that of a right wing lunatic wanting to sue china over the coronavirus.
My friend was about read the whole case this nutjob had prepared against China but I managed to convincre him otherwise.
