Good points.

In Debray (Revolution in the Revolution? Armed Struggle and Political Struggle in Latin America), there’s a hint that it’s not necessarily a bluff (although that is a factor); it’s also that revolutionaries get their hopes up too soon when they hear that their actions are working, which leads them to slow down, etc, which gives away the advantage. I realise I didn’t quite say this in my first comment; I’m only seeing the subtlety after your and Yogthos’ criticisms.