For all of Saudi Arabia’s countless flaws, I think we can relatively safely say the Sauds aren’t going to do much more, than string the US along (unless things drastically and unrealistically change).
The US only offers the Sauds an eternity of destabilization, divide-and-conquer (with their being pitted against Iran, Yemen, and the rest of the resistance), and western diktat. And then there’s the recent intolerable demands for a price cap, the seizures of Russian foreign assets and the weaponization of SWIFT, and the ongoing genocide in Gaza and everything related to it - needless to say, the US “rules based (diktat based, hypocritical) order” has proven itself intolerable, even for regimes like the Sauds’.
Personally, I think it’s heartwarming (and certainly a long time coming)- that the rest of humanity (and even, increasingly, many in the imperial cores-) is finding common ground (and even better yet, win-win prosperity) in the face of the beasts of western imperialism and hegemonism, the greatest monstrosity in existence. It’s led nations and peoples of all stripes, from the Gulf reactionary monarchies, to the Islamic Republic of Iran, to the (regrettably still capitalist) Russians/Brazilians/South Africans/etc, to the military dictatorships like Egypt and fascistic regimes like that of the Hindutvas and Hungary, and of course, last but not least, even the AES states like China- it has finally united humanity, all those with a speck of human decency or even just dignity within them anyways (of which I consider the western ruling elites and their supporters to have neither), against the plague that has ravaged the world for 500 years.
I truly believe the US will attempt to coup the monarchy at some point.
They will destroy Saudi Arabia before they allow another regional competitor to gain more ground
Agreed. Your comment brought to mind, but Michael Hudson goes into it (among other things) in this article, but if all else fails, I don’t see it as out of the question that the US will go so far as to seek to destroy the gulf’s oil, if they can’t control it.
We’re dealing with the most deranged, murderous regime in all of history (IMO). If it were not for the threat of MAD and equal retaliation, I’d even say the US would already be carpet-nuking Russia and China, as well as peppering them with biowarfare and chemical weapons. These neocon hegemonists are utterly irredeemable and unhinged in every sense of the word.
I agree. I feel like we’re seeing now how much the US overplayed it’s hand in the Yemen proxy war / genocide. The Saudi govt does seem pretty done with this shit and doesn’t want to provoke any more attacks on their oil extraction. I feel like SA only really cares about doing business. Not sure where it was, but I heard that the Saudi’s are telling the US not to use their airfields now. That would be a big reversal from a few years back.
I’d say it’s pretty easy for other countries in the region right now to look at Isntreal and the US drunk on blood, and just say no thanks. In a way the US might just creating more fertile ground for a Chinese partnership and peace. Personally, I’d like to see the Saudi govt face charges for war crimes, but that won’t happen in my lifetime.
I think in a very real sense, if our species makes it through this (and that that is even in question shows how bad things are, how unhinged the US and the entire west is) a sort of beautiful, imperfect, but deeply optimistic foundation for peace is being built across the global south.
Obviously, the Saudis deserve to face charges for war crimes, yes. But the primary contradiction comes first, and its imperial hubris, its bloodlust, its infinite greed and rapacity is becoming intolerable worldwide, and if it takes the Saudis, the Hindutvas, the Taliban who were formerly convenient US proxies, the Islamist Iranians (though the extent of demonization they receive is, as always, extreme to the point of being comically untrue, western media would nigh have you believe the Ayatollahs eat babies and rule as supreme god-emperors), if it takes any number of questionable forces to take that contradiction- what I would argue is the primary force for, and the champion of contradiction worldwide, whose global policy has only ever been to offer the world destabilization and eternal war- then it is worth it, and I think the Saudis’ victims- the Yemenis, among others, would agree.
The Saudis are the way they are, anyways, because of the west. Obviously they had their own agency, but they would not be where they are today, if they had been anything else- and now, here they are, seeking a different path, a path that leads to an actual future, independence, and dignity for their people and state, flawed as it may be. The Saudis have been cultivated to be the way they are, led down a dark path- and they were the ones chosen, over the Hashemites (who themselves were deeply flawed, and remain so in Jordan) because of their extremism, and their willingness to play ball with even the most intolerable of western imperialism in the region, just as the Hashemites had been chosen prior for similar reasons.
The problem for the US is that China is a much better partner. The US conditions a lot of cooperation, e.g. technology sharing, on conditions such as normalization with Israel or certain domestic reforms, China doesn’t.
I really do hope thing move forward for the rest of the world. Reactionary and imperfect governments or not, at least their people will benefit.
For all of Saudi Arabia’s countless flaws
I’m well aware, but very few countries give their citizens free quality education among other free perks. I went to school for free all my life, including university and postgraduate. With all its flaws, I would rather it continue progressing and improving. The peace deal with Iran thanks to China is the direction things should take.
Agreed on all points. And it must be said; the Saudis were chosen because they were reactionary, deeply imperfect, then-Wahhabi extremist rulers- they were chosen, even over the (already western lapdogs) Hashemites, who they themselves were chosen due to being willing to play ball with western carving up of the Arabian peninsula.
IMO- while the leadership is still deeply imperfect as well- the Saudis, and indeed all the gulf monarchies, are seeking more in life, for themselves and their people, than forever being vassals, forever having their wealth held hostage by the AmeriKKKans (as mentioned with the Russian asset seizures, oil price caps, etc), and- perhaps worst of all- forever being used to destabilize the region. Because they, and the majority of the world at large- realize now, that the US will only ever offer the Arab world, and indeed the entire world- death, destruction, destabilization, and indeed, worst of all- genocide. The only countries unable to process this fact (though even then, many do- hell, many realize this even amongst the US populace, the most compromised and propagandized populace in the entire world and all of human history IMO) are those whose leadership have been so thoroughly corrupted, so thoroughly beholden to and brainwashed by the US, that they are literally throwing their nations and their peoples’ futures on the pyre, as sacrificial lambs for AmeriKKKan hegemony and meat shields for its pursuit of WW3.
IMO, for all his faults, the present Saudi king clearly is trying to move past forever being the US’ convenient exporter of Wahhabism. I imagine the Saudi people, even many of the more religious among them, are tired of this game; they realize what is up- the west does not ever wish for the Saudis, or indeed any outside of the west (and even then, it could be argued, the west does not seek peace for any of its working class and countless minorities, and inflicts war upon its citizenry, through police brutality, through racial and class divide-and-conquer, through demagoguery and waging wars of deprivation, opiates, and worse to destroy their quality of life and leave them ever more desperate and willing to goosestep in line for the empire and backstab even their fellow citizens for a few table scraps).
I’m well aware, but very few countries give their citizens free quality education among other free perks. I went to school for free all my life, including university and postgraduate. With all its flaws, I would rather it continue progressing and improving. The peace deal with Iran thanks to China is the direction things should take.
And I couldn’t agree more, also with the notion that “at least the people will benefit.” Material conditions are- perhaps not everything, but they are the foundation upon which everything can be built upon. Admittedly, much of the same logic is something I’ve come to understand- after much cringe, western-idealizing “freedom and democracy and liberal values” behavior (thankfully at least, years past- perhaps half a decade past) myself, in regards to my own birthplace and where my family is from, Singapore (though I was raised in, and presently live in the west), another deeply imperfect nation with many similarities to the gulf states in its position within the present world system.
In truth, it was hard to move past the mental opiates and mythos of “freedom and democracy and liberalism”- the brainwashing and mental colonization- which I was raised upon, which was inflicted upon me all my life, and which was inflicted deeply and- from the looks of it, irreparably, in my parents. Perhaps if I were not raised as a extreme minority (Asian in rural Canada) and if I had not gained an assertive sense of equality and self-worth- perhaps if I had not been raised seeing all the ills the west promotes and allows to fester (poverty, deprivation, religious extremism and cultish behavior, racism and even the conditions of the indigenous peoples here, etc) I would not have been able to understand the context, or not have sought out the context for things even as they crumbled around me. But then also, it seems more people are waking up as well, with the material conditions crumbling beneath their feet.
And I couldn’t agree more, also with the notion that “at least the people will benefit.” Material conditions are- perhaps not everything, but they are the foundation upon which everything can be built upon. Admittedly, much of the same logic is something I’ve come to understand- after much cringe, western-idealizing “freedom and democracy and liberal values” behavior (thankfully at least, years past- perhaps half a decade past) myself, in regards to my own birthplace and where my family is from, Singapore (though I was raised in, and presently live in the west), another deeply imperfect nation with many similarities to the gulf states in its position within the present world system.
As someone who lived and worked in the US. I don’t know how anyone does it while also having school debt. The healthcare debt alone was too much. Only after living and working in the US that I came to realize all this advertisement about “freedom and democracy and liberal values” is meaningless if you are stressing about things you shouldn’t stress about, like medical bills. I understand many countries in Western Europe are better on this but you still have to pay taxes.
Pretty much, you can’t eat “freedom.” “Freedom” can’t provide shelter, or dignified and equal treatment as a human being, or medical care, or other necessities of life. The west celebrates negative freedoms, a series of hypotheticals that ultimately all hinge upon the completely neglected material conditions for their empowerment- the rich and poor alike have the “freedom” to march on the street as open Nazis, the “freedom” to hike rents, exploit laborers, and engage in all kinds of corruption and cruelty as they please (and can afford), the “freedom” of choosing to sleep under a bridge (and be removed by cops exercising capital’s “freedom” in turn to remove “eyesores” or to sleep in mansion.
What substance there is to the genuine western “freedoms” (as someone who is trans, and a racial minority, etc) is ephemeral, treated as an easily-revoked privilege rather than fact. Just table scraps, fought over (with said fights, demagoguery, divisions, culture wars being instigated and set aflame by the state and all the pillars of capital) as the foundations of actual human sustenance and all freedoms are stolen from under our feet.
Maybe most other cultures may be “socially backwards” in many aspects, and/or less permissive- or rather, most are. But once again, it is the material conditions (which the west has destroyed across the globe) upon which real progress is built- and frankly if you ask me, within decades if even that no one with sense will be able to claim societies like China are less “free,” less socially developed than the west (rather the opposite); given enough time (albeit much more, as the west has strategically promoted Islamism and reactionary monarchies over secular government in the region and those scars will last a long time), I think the same can even probably be said of the Gulf states or even Iran, if things continue as-is. Because these societies are not built upon exploiting the divisions, at least certainly not to any extent comparable to that of the west; because these societies do actually focus on uplifting the material conditions of their people (from which the social uplifting in other ways can then thrive); because these societies, flawed as they (and all societies) are, still have an understanding of a basic human dignity to be maintained, even if that understanding all too often only extends to their own citizenry; because these societies, for all that they have played a role within the imperialist world system, are not generally speaking directly imperialist (not in any comparable sense, anyways) themselves, but rather are indigenous and have built themselves up of their own merits and production, and do not face the same contradictions like that of the west.
The real question is if they ACTUALLY do more than just performatively join the BRICS+, shit would go down.
I am not optimistic about SA, they have an absurd amount of investment on the USD thanks to the petrodollar, so they can’t decouple from the US, their future is closely linked (unless they were okay with losing all the investment).
This doesn’t mean that SA has to side with the US on everything, they’re in an unique spot. They hold the most important card in the game: the petrodollar.
Dropping the petrodollar policy would hurt both the US and SA, but mostly the US. So they can leverage this policy with the US to get away with better deals with China or anyone really, since IMO the US no longer has the military capability to enforce the policy.
I really hope Saudi Arabia starts selling petrol in yuans. It has been discussed for a few years now. As it is now, being tied to the dollar means the US exports its inflation to us. Though since we are open to Chinese products, that just means we buy more affordable and increasingly higher quality Chinese products instead.
They are in an unique spot that i believe they could get away with it. The US not being able to military enforce the petrodollar policy (aka invade SA if they drop it) means that SA can leverage it to get away with these deals.
Imagine selling petrol to China in yuans, and using them to buy planes (like the other article you posted) and EVs, solar panels, HSR, etc… the yuan has a future full of posibilities, the USD only offers overvalued military equipment and fucking bonds.
The US not being able to military enforce the petrodollar policy (aka invade SA if they drop it)
Why couldn’t the U.S. invade? All it would take is a few week of media coverage on the country’s links to 9/11, pretending it’s some new finding.
They don’t have the resources to do it, they couldn’t do anything to Yemen lol.
They’d get a repeat of Iraq if they did.
Before the invasion, the Iraqi regime under Saddam was pretty pro American interests. After the invasion, the country fell to Iran and is now a major proxy for Iranian interests in the region.
Saudi Arabia will be a repeat of that, but on a significantly worse scale on account of Yemen being right there
A good outcome is not a prerequisite for a U.S. invasion. I agree it would hurt the empire in the long term, but you could have said the same thing in the early 00s about Iraq and Afghanistan, yet here we are.
You made an excellent point. They’d do it for short term benefits, yeah.
And the next day after the war? What’s the plan for that? Anything, absolutely anything, that will replace the Saudi government will be far more hostile to US interests.
Before Iraq was invaded, the US sanctioned it for ten years. Can the US effectively sanction Saudi Arabia? How will that affect oil prices?
You’ve described the excuse the US could find to invade (and the US can, and always has, found an excuse, even if they had to pull it out of their ass), but not that it would be a good idea (which it wouldn’t be).
Frankly, I think given time, unless the Saudis can receive security guarantees- from Russia, China, perhaps even India and/or Pakistan, and from arrangements with the other Arab states- the US will try its hand at doing exactly as you describe, FWIW. If they can’t control the Sauds, they’ll try to overthrow the Sauds. And if they can’t overthrow the Sauds, or can’t regain control over the region or at least turn it into a destabilized hell-on-earth they can extract oil from, I don’t think it’s an exaggeration or remotely out of the question to say that they likely will try to do the “next best thing” and strike their oilfields, and destroy much of the world’s oil in the process.
But it will be a disaster. A humanitarian disaster (not that the US would remotely care), an ecological disaster (ditto), it would possibly cause famine and deprivation across the globe and even across the west (though for the US regime, these facts probably sound more like positives). It would possibly set the entire Islamic world aflame, with the US either invading or bombing the nation which holds their two holiest sites- hell, it would set the entire world aflame, considering the Saudi’s strategic position and resources. It would create a fresh new hotbed of unending resistance and resentment in the region, and likely across the entire globe.
But you know what? I think you’re not wrong, exactly, as said earlier. I think they really will push it, when push comes to shove. I think these maniacs would even go so far as to instigate nuclear war, with bioweapons thrown into the mix (because it’s the AmeriKKKans, of course they would) if they think they can get away with it, or that they can rule over the ashes.
Wouldn’t that cause the value of the yuan to increase, making Chinese goods less attractive on the market?
would depend on the balance of trade between these countries, since SA provides something as crucial as petrol i don’t think it would reach a trade deficit with China.
