The assumption was that Russia was weak and this was going to be an easy in and out adventure they could get out of the way before focusing on dismantling China. Now it turns out that the whole thing has gone terribly wrong, and they’re starting to realize that the whole NATO framework is now at risk because NATO is looking increasingly impotent.
They assumed that the sanctions would work and as a result Russia would be forced to withdraw if presented with a credible threat of Article 5 invocation.
The situation now is so bad that an Article 5 invocation would be the end of NATO as many countries in the alliance would refuse to intervene, or experience domestic political crises if they did.
It definitely was the goal as now it’s US in place of Russia fulfilling food and energy demands of Europe, but at highly inflated prices. It’s the dumb Europeans playing in hands of US getting perished/exploited in someone else’s war.
I mean, didn’t NATO always know this? It’s clear that provoking Russia was the goal, not an unintended consequence.
The assumption was that Russia was weak and this was going to be an easy in and out adventure they could get out of the way before focusing on dismantling China. Now it turns out that the whole thing has gone terribly wrong, and they’re starting to realize that the whole NATO framework is now at risk because NATO is looking increasingly impotent.
They assumed that the sanctions would work and as a result Russia would be forced to withdraw if presented with a credible threat of Article 5 invocation.
The situation now is so bad that an Article 5 invocation would be the end of NATO as many countries in the alliance would refuse to intervene, or experience domestic political crises if they did.
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The rest of the world went along, but not like how they wanted.
They might have seen it as win-win. Either Russia folds under the sanctions or the MIC keeps selling weapons.
As you point out, they didn’t factor in all the relevant contradictions.
It definitely was the goal as now it’s US in place of Russia fulfilling food and energy demands of Europe, but at highly inflated prices. It’s the dumb Europeans playing in hands of US getting perished/exploited in someone else’s war.