This paper examines the likely trajectory of the Ukraine war moving forward. I will address two main questions. First, is a meaningful peace agreement possible? My answer is no. We are now in a war where both sides – Ukraine and the West on one side and Russia on the other – see each other as an existential threat that must be defeated. Given maximalist objectives all around, it is almost impossible to reach a workable peace treaty. Moreover, the two sides have irreconcilable differences regarding territory and Ukraine’s relationship with the West. The best possible outcome is a frozen conflict that could easily turn back into a hot war. The worst possible outcome is a nuclear war, which is unlikely but cannot be ruled out.
Look at the effects of cutting off oil from Germany after the US blew up Nordstrom 2. Material conditions, everything impacted due to huge energy cost increase as they import LNG from the US
Things have a tendency to feed back, impacts cause further impacts and I think Marx would say this is a dialectical materialism function of history.
What’s great about it is we have a chance to win. Organize Unionize Strike and Fight.
Indeed, it’s a critical time for communists in the west to start organizing and educating people. This is the time to build a movement because the material conditions are ripe.