USSR collapse was a different situation. It was a complete change of the economic basis.
Otherwise, while I obviously agree about capitalism being inherently unstable, there are ways to stave off the contradictions - since capitalism has arrived to a dead end a century ago. I find it more probable that USA will increase cannibalisation of its vassal territories and increase the provocations for a new large war.
I completely agree that the mechanics were different with the wave of rapid privatization creating the crisis in post USSR time. The problem US has is that there’s a collapse in the standard of living happening. There have been three major economic crises in the past three decades, and there’s been a wealth transfer to the top during each crisis.
The result has been that majority of the population is living on increasingly tightening margins. So, there’s less wiggle room as each economic crisis hits. We’re now at the point where 63% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. This indicates that most people simply can’t afford any significant increase in their cost of living. I expect that a lot of people are going to be defaulting on their mortgages and other debts this year, which will propagate through the financial system and create something akin to the 2008 economic crash.
This time around it’s not possible to just print more money because that’s what caused the current inflation, and the fed intentionally raised the rates to create the recession as a way to combat that. It’s really not clear to me what other levers US has at this point.
It’s really not clear to me what other levers US has at this point
More plunder, perhaps? I understand that online discourse is heavily propagandised, but from the outside it seems that the public is getting increasingly comfortable with the notion of war being waged for economic benefits and “because we can” (as opposed to any wishy-washy rhetoric of freedom and democracy and liberal values). Whether or not the US ruling class has the wisdom to toss some crumbs to the people and stave off the discontent is another question
Plunder is how US has originally attained its standard of living, but the rule of empires is that eventually you hit an inflection point where the cost of maintaining the empire outstrips the value you can extract from the colonies. At that point the core starts getting hollowed out in order to keep the colonies in line.
I think US has entered this stage now, it has to maintain 800 bases around the globe, and it’s involved in conflicts around the world that it’s increasingly losing while US adversaries are becoming more organized and stronger by the day. And this becomes a self reinforcing cycle. The more countries shake US off the harder it becomes to keep the rest in line.
What’s happening in the Middle East right now is a good example of that. US was forced out of Afghanistan, they failed to break Syria, now Turkey and the Saudis are starting to show signs of independence. Iran is turning into a major player in the region and basically controls Iraq politically now. Iran already supports Syria, and Saudis are starting to talk to them. I expect that soon US will be pushed out of the region.
We’re seeing a similar pattern in Latin America where the whole pink tide movement resulted in leftist governments forming across the region. All of these are starting to work together and are aligning against US interests. US will be forced to devote dwindling resources to try and counter this trend going forward.
Ukraine is a huge drain for US right now where billions are spent each month propping up the military and the entire economy of their puppet regime. This has been the main focus for the past year, and what forced US to loosen its grip on the rest of the empire leading to the above outcomes.
Finally, China is the what US sees at its main competition. China has outplayed US on practically every front at this point, and US doesn’t have any answer to China’s growing economic influence globally. Countries are increasingly choosing to have relations with China over US because China doesn’t dictate to them how to run their internal affairs. This in turn cuts off potential targets for plundering.
Each of the hegemonic projects US is involved in requires enormous resources, and those have to come at the cost of American people. The sane thing to do would be to abandon global hegemonic ambitions and refocus on reshoring the domestic economy, but I don’t think that’s possible politically. So, I think US will keep hollowing itself out to try and cling on to its global empire while the empire continues to crumble.
USSR collapse was a different situation. It was a complete change of the economic basis.
Otherwise, while I obviously agree about capitalism being inherently unstable, there are ways to stave off the contradictions - since capitalism has arrived to a dead end a century ago. I find it more probable that USA will increase cannibalisation of its vassal territories and increase the provocations for a new large war.
I completely agree that the mechanics were different with the wave of rapid privatization creating the crisis in post USSR time. The problem US has is that there’s a collapse in the standard of living happening. There have been three major economic crises in the past three decades, and there’s been a wealth transfer to the top during each crisis.
The result has been that majority of the population is living on increasingly tightening margins. So, there’s less wiggle room as each economic crisis hits. We’re now at the point where 63% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck. This indicates that most people simply can’t afford any significant increase in their cost of living. I expect that a lot of people are going to be defaulting on their mortgages and other debts this year, which will propagate through the financial system and create something akin to the 2008 economic crash.
This time around it’s not possible to just print more money because that’s what caused the current inflation, and the fed intentionally raised the rates to create the recession as a way to combat that. It’s really not clear to me what other levers US has at this point.
More plunder, perhaps? I understand that online discourse is heavily propagandised, but from the outside it seems that the public is getting increasingly comfortable with the notion of war being waged for economic benefits and “because we can” (as opposed to any wishy-washy rhetoric of freedom and democracy and liberal values). Whether or not the US ruling class has the wisdom to toss some crumbs to the people and stave off the discontent is another question
Plunder is how US has originally attained its standard of living, but the rule of empires is that eventually you hit an inflection point where the cost of maintaining the empire outstrips the value you can extract from the colonies. At that point the core starts getting hollowed out in order to keep the colonies in line.
I think US has entered this stage now, it has to maintain 800 bases around the globe, and it’s involved in conflicts around the world that it’s increasingly losing while US adversaries are becoming more organized and stronger by the day. And this becomes a self reinforcing cycle. The more countries shake US off the harder it becomes to keep the rest in line.
What’s happening in the Middle East right now is a good example of that. US was forced out of Afghanistan, they failed to break Syria, now Turkey and the Saudis are starting to show signs of independence. Iran is turning into a major player in the region and basically controls Iraq politically now. Iran already supports Syria, and Saudis are starting to talk to them. I expect that soon US will be pushed out of the region.
We’re seeing a similar pattern in Latin America where the whole pink tide movement resulted in leftist governments forming across the region. All of these are starting to work together and are aligning against US interests. US will be forced to devote dwindling resources to try and counter this trend going forward.
Ukraine is a huge drain for US right now where billions are spent each month propping up the military and the entire economy of their puppet regime. This has been the main focus for the past year, and what forced US to loosen its grip on the rest of the empire leading to the above outcomes.
Finally, China is the what US sees at its main competition. China has outplayed US on practically every front at this point, and US doesn’t have any answer to China’s growing economic influence globally. Countries are increasingly choosing to have relations with China over US because China doesn’t dictate to them how to run their internal affairs. This in turn cuts off potential targets for plundering.
Each of the hegemonic projects US is involved in requires enormous resources, and those have to come at the cost of American people. The sane thing to do would be to abandon global hegemonic ambitions and refocus on reshoring the domestic economy, but I don’t think that’s possible politically. So, I think US will keep hollowing itself out to try and cling on to its global empire while the empire continues to crumble.