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Isn’t that what’s happening?
No, they’re advancing slowly around Bakhmut, suffering significantly lower casualties than the Ukrainians, and Surovikin, who’s literally nicknamed “General Armageddon”, is not just going to sit around with 300,000 fresh recruits. He’s just waiting for winter to take its toll on Ukraine and for their supply lines to degrade even further. I think he’ll either open up a new front and grind there, straining Ukraine even more; or he’ll send them to Donetsk and smash a hole in the Ukrainian lines and force a mass retreat. Maybe he’ll do both.
You know, it mildly frightens me how many"endearing" nicknames the man has and how they are presented in a positive way. Cannibal, Armageddon. Way too USian for my tastes.
And hopefully your assessment is correct, because a grind with 300.000 mobilized with what, two months to re-train? And reported (by Russian media) issues with having them geared. That doesn’t sound promising at all.
IIRC most of those nicknames came from Western media and defectors, and Surovikin seems quite proud of them (but they weren’t his own invention). Brutality-fetishizing seems to be very prevalent in the West, just look at how they nickname the new Sarmat missile “Satan II” or the “Son of Satan”
Those aren’t conscripts, those are reservists. They already have had training before; one does get rusty, but no one completely forgets. Even if there are issues with supplies and whatnot, they can simply supply some units first while delaying the deployments of the other units.
To put things in perspective, 300,000 is literally 150% of the original invasion force. If 200,000 soldiers, even with high-level blunders, can take 20% of Ukraine while inflicting a 10:1 casualty rate in favor of themselves, 500,000 soldiers will completely smash what’s left of the AFU
The Ukrainians ATM are so undersupplied its beyond ridiculous. Iskanders, Kalibrs, Geran’s, Krasnopols falling left and right, the power grid is down, the trains aren’t working, railway junctions are rubble, highways are subject to attacks by drones, etc. Russia will win even without the new soldiers, even without advancing. They were ALWAYS winning, from the very beginning, simply because they trapped Ukraine in a position of attrition that favored themselves. At times, Ukraine had the momentum, but when we look back in the history books 100 years from now, the “Kharkov counteroffensive” probably won’t even be mentioned.