The president's remark that the U.S. would defend Taiwan against a Chinese attack “doesn't really have the hallmark of an off-the-cuff remark,” one expert said.
Accelerationist comrade Biden really trying to hurry up nuclear apocalypse
I think you are wayyy too pessimistic. An all out World War would not have China limited to its immediate neighbors. The US has 11 (or 12?) aircraft carrier strike groups. All of them are huge sitting ducks for the new generation hypersonic missiles. Can’t be intercepted, can’t be defended against. Without the carriers worldwide reach becomes very hard as cargo planes are also large masses of metal that can’t maneuver fast and can’t be hidden from radar. Things will get hard but the US doesn’t have a guaranteed victory.
China isn’t going to strike out and sink US carrier groups around the globe with long-range missiles. If they do outside of the theater of the SCS that’s the gloves off. The US will strike back at military assets on the mainland. Even if they did so. NATO fleets are more than just aircraft carriers. Just small coast-guard sized cutters are more than capable of carrying out interdictions.
The US has hundreds of bases around the world. They have an air-force, they have planes, they have land assets that can strike at sea. If China starts sinking US carriers globally outside of the SCS they are going to hit back by sinking all Chinese shipping in the SCS before it even leaves it. You’ll have a world war situation.
Too many people use hypersonic missiles like some people misuse the word “quantum” as if it’s some magical solution to whatever problem is proposed. No doubt large US ships in the SCS in an engagement with China are fucked but the global situation on the seas is more complicated than just throwing very fast missiles at things.
The fact of the matter is, it is easier to play pirate and aggressor who strikes out and sinks or stops ships than it is to possibly guard ships all over the globe at the same time. For that you need escort ships or a global air force. I’m sorry but missiles aren’t going to cut it. This isn’t some Hollywood movie where they’ll just use satellites to find US ship locations and target them using that info thus keeping Chinese shipping safe in real-time from afar, because if they do that and expand the theater way beyond their waters the US is going to target and take out their satellites one way or another and blind them. They won’t do so until a carrier or other large ship is sunk far from China but once it happens the US isn’t going to just sit there, cry, throw up their hands and state they can do nothing. Nor will they just build more ships for China to sink in a game. Once things turn hot they will get very serious about containing China to the SCS region.
NATO’s fleet is much more than aircraft carriers. In fact for global sea interdiction and piracy operations aircraft carriers aren’t that useful. They’re useful for projecting force onto land or covering an area in planes. If you know about where the ships are, you send smaller ships, smaller than even destroyers usually and they have a fair amount of those. If you’re at the point where it’s weapons-free because of a global conflict with China, they’ll just use subs to sink Chinese shipping and they have a fair amount of submarines which aren’t amenable to being easily discovered and targeted by far away missile launches. For that you need an air-force to drop buoys and/or ships/subs to sweep for and kill the enemy subs.
They don’t need reach into the middle of the Indian ocean. They only need reach along probable shipping routes, coastlines along the middle east, Africa, middle of the Pacific. Their land air-force bases in their vassal nations are capable of covering a lot of that area.
There are too many variables here to say for certain how things would unfold. Both on the Chinese side, on the side of their allies like Russia, and other more fair-weather-friends and on the NATO, evil-empire side.
I’m not saying it would be a win for the US but it’s not as simple as some people flippantly suggest for China. I was more or less giving how I think they see it. Not how it is. I don’t even hazard to guess how some of these things would play out, too many variables.
I think you are wayyy too pessimistic. An all out World War would not have China limited to its immediate neighbors. The US has 11 (or 12?) aircraft carrier strike groups. All of them are huge sitting ducks for the new generation hypersonic missiles. Can’t be intercepted, can’t be defended against. Without the carriers worldwide reach becomes very hard as cargo planes are also large masses of metal that can’t maneuver fast and can’t be hidden from radar. Things will get hard but the US doesn’t have a guaranteed victory.
China isn’t going to strike out and sink US carrier groups around the globe with long-range missiles. If they do outside of the theater of the SCS that’s the gloves off. The US will strike back at military assets on the mainland. Even if they did so. NATO fleets are more than just aircraft carriers. Just small coast-guard sized cutters are more than capable of carrying out interdictions.
The US has hundreds of bases around the world. They have an air-force, they have planes, they have land assets that can strike at sea. If China starts sinking US carriers globally outside of the SCS they are going to hit back by sinking all Chinese shipping in the SCS before it even leaves it. You’ll have a world war situation.
Too many people use hypersonic missiles like some people misuse the word “quantum” as if it’s some magical solution to whatever problem is proposed. No doubt large US ships in the SCS in an engagement with China are fucked but the global situation on the seas is more complicated than just throwing very fast missiles at things.
The fact of the matter is, it is easier to play pirate and aggressor who strikes out and sinks or stops ships than it is to possibly guard ships all over the globe at the same time. For that you need escort ships or a global air force. I’m sorry but missiles aren’t going to cut it. This isn’t some Hollywood movie where they’ll just use satellites to find US ship locations and target them using that info thus keeping Chinese shipping safe in real-time from afar, because if they do that and expand the theater way beyond their waters the US is going to target and take out their satellites one way or another and blind them. They won’t do so until a carrier or other large ship is sunk far from China but once it happens the US isn’t going to just sit there, cry, throw up their hands and state they can do nothing. Nor will they just build more ships for China to sink in a game. Once things turn hot they will get very serious about containing China to the SCS region.
NATO’s fleet is much more than aircraft carriers. In fact for global sea interdiction and piracy operations aircraft carriers aren’t that useful. They’re useful for projecting force onto land or covering an area in planes. If you know about where the ships are, you send smaller ships, smaller than even destroyers usually and they have a fair amount of those. If you’re at the point where it’s weapons-free because of a global conflict with China, they’ll just use subs to sink Chinese shipping and they have a fair amount of submarines which aren’t amenable to being easily discovered and targeted by far away missile launches. For that you need an air-force to drop buoys and/or ships/subs to sweep for and kill the enemy subs.
They don’t need reach into the middle of the Indian ocean. They only need reach along probable shipping routes, coastlines along the middle east, Africa, middle of the Pacific. Their land air-force bases in their vassal nations are capable of covering a lot of that area.
There are too many variables here to say for certain how things would unfold. Both on the Chinese side, on the side of their allies like Russia, and other more fair-weather-friends and on the NATO, evil-empire side.
I’m not saying it would be a win for the US but it’s not as simple as some people flippantly suggest for China. I was more or less giving how I think they see it. Not how it is. I don’t even hazard to guess how some of these things would play out, too many variables.