I have been following various channels and websites interpreting this development for the Russian side as a tactical failure (Military Summary), a chiefly-PR disaster (Alexander Mercouris), or a clandestine, premeditated strategy (The New Atlas), all of which come with their various items of evidence. Obviously more time is needed to confirm either hypothesis, and that time must neither be one of panic, denial, or other premature conclusions.

Either way, in my opinion the decisive dynamic of this conflict has now extended far beyond, and indeed decoupled from, what goes on within the actual borders of Ukraine. While I do not wish to belittle the worry and suffering of the people in Donbas, the nature of its consequences is now global and economic, while the strategic and psychological components have been degraded to a sideshow; and in a global view the consequences have already irreversibly come out in favour of anti-imperialism, regardless of how the military situation plays out. Look at the state of the West right now: Even if Ukraine should tonight succeed in pushing out Russian and militia forces in their entirety and have some alone time to do Nazi stuff, its own economy is on the brink of collapse, European governments will struggle to survive the winter, Washington will have lost a third of its military stockpile, sunk billions of dollars into a Pyrrhic victory, will sink billions more into rebuilding the Ukrainian positions opposite Donezk, and have been distracted from its plans elsewhere in the world, which comes on top of the myriad of domestic problems it already has. Meanwhile, the privilege of trading oil and gas with Russia has now forever moved from the Western world onto the Global South, the SWIFT banking system has lost its global monopoly, and Western industries are going to need to relocate even further parts of their business to China because of rising oil and gas prices, from which let us not forget Russia is profiting big time.