• 3 Posts
  • 692 Comments
Joined 4 年前
cake
Cake day: 2022年4月5日

help-circle












  • They are also at war at the moment. It’s a big country and it’s doable given long enough peace. Also I don’t know where you are getting your numbers and why you trust them. I’ve seen estimates up to a million and none that I would trust.

    They have experience too. A whole generation of brainwashed youth was raised between 2014 and 2022. This just smacks of Minsk agreements 2.0: get a breather, prepare new forces, try again. Fuck that. Putin declared demilitarization of Ukraine as one of the goals of SMO in the very beginning and he better stand on at least that and denazification.

    P. S. Speaking of, it’s hilarious that a country that refuses to condemn nazi ideology in the UN proposes that Russia and Ukraine ban it.


  • Gotta team up with someone who isn’t China on AI and using Russia against China kinda the same way Ukraine is being used against Russia has been the western dream scenario this century. No Idea why Russia would at this point, but then again I have very little faith in the Kremlin libs.

    Anyway, I was pointing to the second subsection there first of all.





  • My thoughts are that international law is such a mess now that it doesn’t matter at all any more. It was selectively disregarded for years by the West, Russia, China and some others have been proving both that it doesn’t work as written and that precedents set by the West somehow don’t apply to others, and now all we’re waiting for is complete breakdown.

    I don’t know if the UN goes the way of the League of Nations as a result of WWIII or if this breakdown takes some other form, but I also think it’s too soon to be developing the next system. The current patient formally isn’t six feet under yet and formalities matter with law.


  • It’s the good old point about the West having “rules for thee…”. I just surprised you with the angle, I guess.

    I see what you are saying about the five untouchables, but cases against them happened. Just as political statements, with no hope of result. No one even tried sanctions this time though.

    ICJ case was a circus on three levels: Ukraine literally did a strawman by claiming that Russia justifies the invasion with Genocide Convention, when Russia openly invoked article 51 of the UN charter; the ruling had little to nothing to do with the application; was unintentional self-trolling by the US diplomats that no doubt worked on the case, because… I’ll save it for Christmas.

    As for the unilateral sanctions, there is ongoing debate over whether those are illegal, with some bodies like the Hague claiming they are illegal, as they bypass the UNSC, but there’s obviously the issue of one of the UNSC members themselves committing the initial crime unilaterally and vetoing resulting sanctions.

    That is…not at all how law works. Mob justice is a criminal offence in most countries. Probably in all countries.

    I’m not saying Russia had UN mandate to invade. What I am saying is that Russia made all the moves and got diametrically opposed results to those of NATO. Russia recognised LPR and DPR, signed agreements with them, even the blind OSCE monkeys in Donbass registered hundreds of ceasefire violations by Ukraine and only about two weeks later Putin came out with his stand up bit.

    Which brings me to Christmas. The UN didn’t sanction Yugoslavia bombings. But ICJ ruled they were humanitarian intervention. Under what? Under Genocide Convention. Need I remind that Milošević was aquited by Hague tribunal after death?

    Neither spirit nor the letter are broken. Rulings of an organization headquartered in NYC that can’t give a straight answer when asked about the US blatantly stealing oil in Syria are another matter.

    So no new talking points for you, comrade) Not really. Just another angle to ridicule the so called rules based order.


  • Will Ukraine fight until the AFU collapses?

    Most likely.

    Will there be a coup?

    Like, a pro-Russian one? Most unlikely.

    Would a pro russian or neutral ukraine be established across all of what is currently the Ukraine, or will there be an attempt to make a “taiwan-ified” state in the west?

    Strategically speaking, Russia needs the most industrialized regions and the entire shoreline. Demilitarization of the rest too. Which way what remains of “independent” Ukraine leans doesn’t matter a lot at that point, only that it remains. But it might be better for Russia, if it’s westward, so that Russia doesn’t have to rebuild at least that. Neutral status on paper though.

    Which way what remains of “independent” Ukraine leans doesn’t matter a lot at that point, only that it remains.

    I should clarify. That’s because the Russian government is clearly trying to do it “right”. SMO isn’t breaking international law, which is why there aren’t any sanctions, like, UN ones, only unilateral restrictions from individual countries(which are, ironically, illegal). Annexation of Ukraine wasn’t in the declared goals at any point. And leaving it be, albeit demilitarized, would be the final nail in the coffin of already ridiculous genocide allegations. Good for propaganda in a different way too. Independent Ukraine is yet another entity people in the West that have a good idea of what’s going on can point at as an example of NATO using up it’s supposes allies and leaving them the worse for wear, whereas annexing the entire thing just adds to the rUsSiAn ImPeRiAlIsT cOnQuErErS narrative, even if Ukraine asks for it till the end.