In this context, I don’t think it would make sense for Russia to cut the gas completely, either way. Everything the west does to escalate simply cuts off their own nose- yet the continued dependence on Russia all the same, is tearing apart NATO and the EU as a result, even if they appear more unified, the support is crumbling from within.
The Europeans with half a brain cell or more are horrified, and those states with halfways sensible government are torn between Russia (and the broader world), and US diktat. Hungary and Slovakia’s current spat with Ukraine (which cut off gas from Russia recently- likely with EU instigating) is just among the many examples of this- Europe is scrambling, to consolidate power under Brussels, to crack the whip on the east and south Europeans, to suppress European (working class and corporate alike) dissent at the realization that Europe is actively and continually committing suicide to maintain the US empire…
Meanwhile, Turkey and India are making bank, and in Turkey’s case, this is yet another fraying point for NATO. And India loves playing both sides, yet more and more, it becomes clear that they will be forced- by their own capitalistic interests if nothing else, to choose a side, and it won’t be the side the west likes.
Russia has no need to engage in such self-destructive actions (which would not necessarily be beneficial, even if Russia were still communist). It’s a very similar situation to China’s trade with the US; there’s no need to cut the capitalists off, it’s better to just show the rest of the world who the reasonable and reliable ones are, cause the western capitalists to tear themselves apart from within simply by being consistent business partners, let them continue to butt their heads against the brick wall of reality, and let them remain as dependent as they wish (and they will- because they’re capitalists- though otherwise they’re simply going to destroy themselves more still by resorting to- what, American gas? Saudi gas? Or will they stretch the empire thinner going on some goosestepping misadventures to conquer and extract oil elsewhere?).
…and then, if and when Russia really wants to cut off the tap- same as with China, actually- if and when things get so bad, despite the fact that by-and-large keeping the tap running is massively beneficial to both respective countries and to the development of multipolarity and undermining of capitalist consolidation and unity- the results will be absolutely c a t a s t r o p h i c. It’ll be beautiful and it’ll send the imperial order right off a cliff, one they have just kept digging for themselves 😂
Very much agree with your analysis, and I’d also add that keeping gas and other resources flowing shows that Russia is ultimately pragmatic, while EU is acting contrary to the interests of its members. As thing continue to get worse economically in the EU, it’s entirely possible that countries like Hungary and Slovakia, Italy, or even France might flip over to BRICS at some point.
The whole premise of EU is based on economic prosperity, and if it can’t deliver on it, then there’s no value proposition for staying. If countries start exiting the EU and their economic situation improves then the whole house of cards will collapse overnight. And without EU, I don’t see how NATO could survive either. As you note, Turkey is already a weak link, a lot of French rhetoric is against NATO as well. When it’s proven that NATO is not able to defeat Russia, paying a huge chunk of the GDP to stay in it while the economies are collapsing is going to be a tall order.
Europe (and Japan, and the rest of the Anglosphere outside the US) has a choice to make; between being increasing devoured by US capital, or making terms with the rest of humanity and arranging a more or less graceful (still difficult, still one they’ll fight like hell domestically and internationally to resist) descent from their business model of neocolonial superprofits.
Uncle Sam is blowing the war horn; they’ve bought off the political establishments of the west (those that they didn’t build outright) and now the debts are due; it’s time for the west to close ranks, circle the wagons (consolidate capital and industry in the US), and accept US mercantilism- we’ve come full circle (from that of the UK trying to push that on the 13 colonies, to the other way around). The Euros are particularly screwed, but it’s not like they’ll have time (or cheap gas) for all that industry and trade with BRICS, they’re the next battering rams lined up to face Russia after all (Scholz welcoming long-range nuclear capable US missiles as a perfect example). Oh, and also it’s time for them to start paying up for the costs of the US’ protection racket… This is a massive oversimplification for brevity, but more or less how I see it.
Indeed, we basically have two economic blocs forming around G7 and BRICS, and the latter is the bigger one where most of production happens and most of global resources are. In a way, we’re seeing the reversal of the situation we saw during the Cold War.
In this context, I don’t think it would make sense for Russia to cut the gas completely, either way. Everything the west does to escalate simply cuts off their own nose- yet the continued dependence on Russia all the same, is tearing apart NATO and the EU as a result, even if they appear more unified, the support is crumbling from within.
The Europeans with half a brain cell or more are horrified, and those states with halfways sensible government are torn between Russia (and the broader world), and US diktat. Hungary and Slovakia’s current spat with Ukraine (which cut off gas from Russia recently- likely with EU instigating) is just among the many examples of this- Europe is scrambling, to consolidate power under Brussels, to crack the whip on the east and south Europeans, to suppress European (working class and corporate alike) dissent at the realization that Europe is actively and continually committing suicide to maintain the US empire…
Meanwhile, Turkey and India are making bank, and in Turkey’s case, this is yet another fraying point for NATO. And India loves playing both sides, yet more and more, it becomes clear that they will be forced- by their own capitalistic interests if nothing else, to choose a side, and it won’t be the side the west likes.
Russia has no need to engage in such self-destructive actions (which would not necessarily be beneficial, even if Russia were still communist). It’s a very similar situation to China’s trade with the US; there’s no need to cut the capitalists off, it’s better to just show the rest of the world who the reasonable and reliable ones are, cause the western capitalists to tear themselves apart from within simply by being consistent business partners, let them continue to butt their heads against the brick wall of reality, and let them remain as dependent as they wish (and they will- because they’re capitalists- though otherwise they’re simply going to destroy themselves more still by resorting to- what, American gas? Saudi gas? Or will they stretch the empire thinner going on some goosestepping misadventures to conquer and extract oil elsewhere?).
…and then, if and when Russia really wants to cut off the tap- same as with China, actually- if and when things get so bad, despite the fact that by-and-large keeping the tap running is massively beneficial to both respective countries and to the development of multipolarity and undermining of capitalist consolidation and unity- the results will be absolutely c a t a s t r o p h i c. It’ll be beautiful and it’ll send the imperial order right off a cliff, one they have just kept digging for themselves 😂
Very much agree with your analysis, and I’d also add that keeping gas and other resources flowing shows that Russia is ultimately pragmatic, while EU is acting contrary to the interests of its members. As thing continue to get worse economically in the EU, it’s entirely possible that countries like Hungary and Slovakia, Italy, or even France might flip over to BRICS at some point.
The whole premise of EU is based on economic prosperity, and if it can’t deliver on it, then there’s no value proposition for staying. If countries start exiting the EU and their economic situation improves then the whole house of cards will collapse overnight. And without EU, I don’t see how NATO could survive either. As you note, Turkey is already a weak link, a lot of French rhetoric is against NATO as well. When it’s proven that NATO is not able to defeat Russia, paying a huge chunk of the GDP to stay in it while the economies are collapsing is going to be a tall order.
Agreed, you put it more succinctly than I did.
Europe (and Japan, and the rest of the Anglosphere outside the US) has a choice to make; between being increasing devoured by US capital, or making terms with the rest of humanity and arranging a more or less graceful (still difficult, still one they’ll fight like hell domestically and internationally to resist) descent from their business model of neocolonial superprofits.
Uncle Sam is blowing the war horn; they’ve bought off the political establishments of the west (those that they didn’t build outright) and now the debts are due; it’s time for the west to close ranks, circle the wagons (consolidate capital and industry in the US), and accept US mercantilism- we’ve come full circle (from that of the UK trying to push that on the 13 colonies, to the other way around). The Euros are particularly screwed, but it’s not like they’ll have time (or cheap gas) for all that industry and trade with BRICS, they’re the next battering rams lined up to face Russia after all (Scholz welcoming long-range nuclear capable US missiles as a perfect example). Oh, and also it’s time for them to start paying up for the costs of the US’ protection racket… This is a massive oversimplification for brevity, but more or less how I see it.
Indeed, we basically have two economic blocs forming around G7 and BRICS, and the latter is the bigger one where most of production happens and most of global resources are. In a way, we’re seeing the reversal of the situation we saw during the Cold War.