Very much agree with your analysis, and I’d also add that keeping gas and other resources flowing shows that Russia is ultimately pragmatic, while EU is acting contrary to the interests of its members. As thing continue to get worse economically in the EU, it’s entirely possible that countries like Hungary and Slovakia, Italy, or even France might flip over to BRICS at some point.
The whole premise of EU is based on economic prosperity, and if it can’t deliver on it, then there’s no value proposition for staying. If countries start exiting the EU and their economic situation improves then the whole house of cards will collapse overnight. And without EU, I don’t see how NATO could survive either. As you note, Turkey is already a weak link, a lot of French rhetoric is against NATO as well. When it’s proven that NATO is not able to defeat Russia, paying a huge chunk of the GDP to stay in it while the economies are collapsing is going to be a tall order.
Europe (and Japan, and the rest of the Anglosphere outside the US) has a choice to make; between being increasing devoured by US capital, or making terms with the rest of humanity and arranging a more or less graceful (still difficult, still one they’ll fight like hell domestically and internationally to resist) descent from their business model of neocolonial superprofits.
Uncle Sam is blowing the war horn; they’ve bought off the political establishments of the west (those that they didn’t build outright) and now the debts are due; it’s time for the west to close ranks, circle the wagons (consolidate capital and industry in the US), and accept US mercantilism- we’ve come full circle (from that of the UK trying to push that on the 13 colonies, to the other way around). The Euros are particularly screwed, but it’s not like they’ll have time (or cheap gas) for all that industry and trade with BRICS, they’re the next battering rams lined up to face Russia after all (Scholz welcoming long-range nuclear capable US missiles as a perfect example). Oh, and also it’s time for them to start paying up for the costs of the US’ protection racket… This is a massive oversimplification for brevity, but more or less how I see it.
Indeed, we basically have two economic blocs forming around G7 and BRICS, and the latter is the bigger one where most of production happens and most of global resources are. In a way, we’re seeing the reversal of the situation we saw during the Cold War.
Very much agree with your analysis, and I’d also add that keeping gas and other resources flowing shows that Russia is ultimately pragmatic, while EU is acting contrary to the interests of its members. As thing continue to get worse economically in the EU, it’s entirely possible that countries like Hungary and Slovakia, Italy, or even France might flip over to BRICS at some point.
The whole premise of EU is based on economic prosperity, and if it can’t deliver on it, then there’s no value proposition for staying. If countries start exiting the EU and their economic situation improves then the whole house of cards will collapse overnight. And without EU, I don’t see how NATO could survive either. As you note, Turkey is already a weak link, a lot of French rhetoric is against NATO as well. When it’s proven that NATO is not able to defeat Russia, paying a huge chunk of the GDP to stay in it while the economies are collapsing is going to be a tall order.
Agreed, you put it more succinctly than I did.
Europe (and Japan, and the rest of the Anglosphere outside the US) has a choice to make; between being increasing devoured by US capital, or making terms with the rest of humanity and arranging a more or less graceful (still difficult, still one they’ll fight like hell domestically and internationally to resist) descent from their business model of neocolonial superprofits.
Uncle Sam is blowing the war horn; they’ve bought off the political establishments of the west (those that they didn’t build outright) and now the debts are due; it’s time for the west to close ranks, circle the wagons (consolidate capital and industry in the US), and accept US mercantilism- we’ve come full circle (from that of the UK trying to push that on the 13 colonies, to the other way around). The Euros are particularly screwed, but it’s not like they’ll have time (or cheap gas) for all that industry and trade with BRICS, they’re the next battering rams lined up to face Russia after all (Scholz welcoming long-range nuclear capable US missiles as a perfect example). Oh, and also it’s time for them to start paying up for the costs of the US’ protection racket… This is a massive oversimplification for brevity, but more or less how I see it.
Indeed, we basically have two economic blocs forming around G7 and BRICS, and the latter is the bigger one where most of production happens and most of global resources are. In a way, we’re seeing the reversal of the situation we saw during the Cold War.