I’ve asked questions without giving answers myself, so I’ve decided I’ll try to take a guess.
The United States couldn’t even defend Ukraine when the war with Russia began, it had to resort to a proxy war instead of a hyped-up full-scale world war. And the Russian military, while strong, is still weaker than the U.S. military! Even Putin has said that NATO could crush the Russian military!
It is likely that the U.S. would treat Taiwan the same: give up on defending the island, leave it to fight a proxy war.
This is going to lead to sanctions on China, of course, but with even more destructive consequences for NATO. Russia was a major exporter of oil and natural gas to the West, and when the sanctions began, the prices of gas went sky-high. China, however, makes just about everything that the West needs. Once the sanctions begin, the West will suffer horribly and will not be able to rebuild their own manufacturing industry in time.
Non-western nations will join in on the sanctions, especially South Korea and Japan, and suffer similar results. Most countries have decided not to sanction Russia, and will most likely make the smart move and not sanction China.
Due to the weakening of the West, third world anti-imperialist coups and revolutions will keep happening and westerners will get so pissed off at their governments that they will start revolutions of their own.
Either way, there is no way that the U.S. empire is going to win in Taiwan.
What do you guys think?
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I think China is going to do its best to avoid getting dragged into a kinetic war over Taiwan, but if it comes down to it i think the US will rather see Taiwan completely destroyed than the Chinese capture it relatively intact. And no, they wouldn’t be able to sustain Taiwan in the way they have Ukraine because China can easily impose a blockade. The US would be too hesitant to engage head on lest it lose some of the biggest ships in its navy to Chinese missiles. They will probably try to impose a counter blockade using submarines and close the Strait of Malacca, but China has already been building the Belt and Road transport corridors precisely as an alternative to that. China has maneuvered its pieces way in advance in such a way that really they have already won the war before it even begins, and the US from its various wargames basically knows this. China just has to hold the current course and sooner or later Taiwan will be reintegrated peacefully. In the meantime the US will try to wage hybrid war on China in every way possible.
