Best case scenario would be that ECOWAS gets their asses handed to them, and maybe that leads in some anti western coups within ECOWAS. This is basically the last colonial stronghold that the west has in Africa. If ECOWAS ends up collapsing, then western position will be untenable. Given that African Union is against intervention and Niger has support from the neighbours, I don’t think ECOWAS is going to have an easy time here. There also seems to be a lot of disagreement within ECOWAS regarding this because it’s pretty clear that the west is pushing them into it.
I’m curious to see how this will pan out, and if the west will open another proxy war against Russia
Not per se against Russia alone. Africa’s partnership is critical to both China and Russia. Subjugation of Africa via neo-colonialism to Europe (a proxy and vassal of the US) is also important for continued plunder of resources. So while it’s not a direct threat to Russia it’s an indirect, long-term one. These moments don’t come along that often and frankly I fear if this and similar movements are crushed in Africa, the US/Europe will step up their watch, funnel more extremists into the areas, install fascists, etc.
West already has tons of troops in Africa but it looks bad for their image if they’re going around killing black people so they’d rather farm it out to some local pawns. Quite frankly the battle for Africa is just beginning. Things are going to escalate. I hope Russia and China get more directly involved in the years to come or I fear Africa will end up in the same position South America was in the mid-20th century with regards to the type of people the US elevates and supports.
That would be awful.
For the West, destabilizing Western Africa is not a bad thing per se. But they’d have to have faith in ECOWAS being able to swiftly beat Niger and possibly Guinea, Burkina Faso and Mali. It will be interesting to see what they will do if the conflict lingers on for a longer time, or what they will do if Russia supports Niger. Wagner should already be in Niger if I’m not mistaken.
The US might have some spare parts laying around that they can ship to ECOWAS, but I’m doubtful France and other European allies will support yet another war when most of them are getting into a recession right now.
I was talking about already impoverished nations having to suffer from the burden of being the nexus for a proxy war.
Yes, of course. It’s always the people suffering in things like this so that the greedy pigs at the top can get their fix. And especially the people living in already precarious situations. But the West and ECOWAS have made their decision, it seems, and I hope they choke to death on the bone that is Niger.
