I’m usually a “Sane Trump Theory” supporter, but I see no outcome where the US achieves strategic gains in this one. Even with successful leadership assassination and significant damage to Iran’s current nuclear capabilities, it’ll just be kicking the can down the road and galvanising even more the Iranian people against the US. There’s no way an outright occupation of Iran will happen.

But most NATO substrates have also designated the IRGC as a terrorist org, which I think would imply that the offensive is somehow strategically important. I don’t like the whole depoliticising “distraction from Epstein” narrative, but I’m struggling to come up with alternatives here.

  • Cowbee [he/they]
    24·
    13 days ago

    Forgive my ignorance on the topic, but why four to six months? What happens then that would make intervention in Iran not as effective, or impossible?

    • rainpizza
      23·
      13 days ago

      Sadly, the author didn’t explain that point in particular. However, I can speculate that it has to do with the USD. If all the logistic framework and the material conditions allow for a complete abandonment of SWIFT/USD/other important imperialist dominated tools for international trading, this will allow countries to drop the USD and US treasuries at record levels.

      If countries around the world(or at least in Asia) drop US treasuries and USD, the entire foundation of the USD will be broken and that will allow hyperinflation to rock the USA. This in part will destroy their ability to fund their own institutions(CIA, DEA, USAID, ICE) and even their military. Adding to this, it will open the possibility of plenty of countries that already are in the BRICS alternative to boycott the USA.

      That’s my take. I could be wrong but I reach that conclusion from other takes on the USD.