I recently saw a post here commemorating Xi on his 70th birthday. Quite the accomplishment in terms of how well he is doing as a leader, and in terms of personal health.
However, this also got me thinking. What comes after Xi? Sadly he is not immortal, and is rapidly approaching an age where he will not be able to as effectively carry out his duties. Plus he deserves to retire at some point to also enjoy his life.
From this, are there plans for who will take Xi’s place? Who are the candidates with the most potential in terms of being elected? What will be China’s path after Xi’s resignation in terms of economic, geopolitical, military, and social development? Will Xi’s path be continued, or will a new leader decide to change course? Will a continuation of Dengist policies be committed to, as Xi did, or will there be a return to the policies of the Four?
Preferably Comrades who are Chinese, have ties to China, or are knowledgeable in the subject could give their observations and opinions, but for everyone else, what are your thoughts?
Is there a particular reason you say that for Qiang? I haven’t seen much about him that isn’t extremely neutral reporting, so I’m just wondering if there’s something I’m missing.
Also while it is a prestigious position, it seems like it is high time to appoint people to the politburo who are in the 30-50 range. The current leadership is quickly aging, and they need to begin setting up, preparing, and training a new generation. A power vacuum would be disastrous, and appointing people in their late 50’s early 60’s is just postponing the issue by a few years.
His proximity to capitalists doesn’t inspire much confidence in me, and Shanghai is a liberal mecca.
I’m not the most knowledgeable about Li (or the inner workings of the CPC), so I could be quite off base as to what he would do. The western press was pretty happy as they see him as someone to give capital more free reign (even if they then try to deride him as a Xi “loyalist”). Though I think they said the same about Xi at some point lol.
Iirc there was some hukou reform under Li in Shanghai, which is good and I hope to see it go further.
Regardless, I think Xi has done enough to set China on a specific path that will likely not be altered beyond recognition depending on who is next, nor would a less influential leader necessarily lead to a power vacuum. It will be interesting to see what happens next though.
Unrelated question, but how do both/either of you find “unbiased” information in English on the political environment within China. I have found it very difficult myself. (Assuming you don’t speak Mandarin, that is.)
There are many Chinese news agencies, government agencies, and bloggers that also hold English speaking channels and sites. Reading directly from the source is also very good and is an effective way to build your own opinion, but the most important thing is comparing a variety of sources to see what is corroborated. Chinese government sources, Chinese news, Russian news, bloggers, American news, various political analysts across the globe and so on. Everyone has their own bias which is unavoidable, so you have to sift through it all to put together the bigger picture, and you can never take anything at face value.
Basically, even if you don’t speak Mandarin, many Chinese sources will have English translations, and even a basic “site translate” built into a service like google chrome is better then nothing.
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I agree with all your points, but I will say that I was referring to a power vacuum in the Politburo itself. A power vacuum caused by many members simultaneously dying, becoming too old to serve effectively, or retiring, might cause a power vacuum which might allow less then qualified or politically nebulous figures to get a foothold in the leadership. Basically what happened in the Soviet Union in the 1980’s.
I agree, and hope that doesn’t happen. There must be some younger party members who are both committed and ready to move up, and would like to learn more about who they may be.
The more I look into Li, the more I’m worried. He seems like a disastrous figure, a Chinese Gorbachev for lack of better words.
A free market, billionaire bootlicking, Neo classical economics, free trade, no regulation, warhawk neo liberal.
He is everything that liberals claim Xi is, and the western media is overjoyed at the prospect of Li’s leadership. This seems extremely dangerous.
We’ll have to see what happens over the next few years, he may not even be in consideration for the position. He was an odd pick imo. I thought Xi would leave Li Keqiang there, but from what I understand they did not get along. The west liked Li Keqiang too.
I think Li Qiang was likely chosen to signal to the west that China would welcome their investments much to the chagrin of the US who has been trying to pry it away via sanctions and the continuing trade war. In that sense he was a good choice for his current position. The more the west spends in developing China the better for them.
I doubt he’s China’s gorby though, as the situation in the two countries are very different.