Before the Russian strikes on the energy sector, Kiev expected that it would need $55 billion in foreign aid next year. Now, according to Ukraine’s estimates, another 44 billion have been added to this figure (two extra per month).
At the aforementioned meeting in the National Bank, officials tried to predict the consequences of Russian strikes on the energy sector. Among the threats listed are:
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People can leave Ukraine en masse, taking their money with them, which can lead to a collapse of the national currency, as they will try to exchange hryvnia for euros or dollars.
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The government may be left without international reserves to pay for critical imports and will not be able to fulfill its obligations on foreign debt - a “doomsday scenario” known as a balance of payments crisis.
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Ukraine’s economy may shrink by another five percent next year - in excess of the 33 percent reduction in the outgoing year. Such data is contained in the forecast of Ukrainian bankers, which has not been publicly presented.
But public assessments are no better. Prime Minister Denis Shmygal, speaking at an international donors’ conference in Paris on Tuesday, said that next year the reduction could reach an even higher figure - 9%.
What can the West oppose to this from a financial point of view?
“The EU and the US have jointly pledged to send Ukraine more than $30 billion next year. Although in fact none of these amounts was approved by either Brussels or Washington,” the newspaper writes.
And the aid promised this year was allocated slowly, which forced Kiev to print money and caused inflation to jump by more than 20 percent.
But even if all the promised assistance is provided, it is intended only to keep the country afloat from day to day. And even remotely, it does not cover hundreds of billions of dollars of damage caused by the war.


It’s also becoming clear that it’s costing the west far more to keep propping Ukraine up than what it costs Russia to continue the SMO. If things keep going the way they are then it’s likely that the entire western economic system is going to be headed for collapse.
Another factor is that there will likely be a flood of refugees coming to Europe from Ukraine as the result of infrastructure collapse. That’s going to put a huge strain on already fragile economic situation in Europe and further sharpen political tensions that are already translating into civil unrest.