I’ve thought about this too and I don’t think a US backed false flag is an unreasonable concern but I keep coming back to my belief that the US doesn’t want open warfare with Russia. There’s no benefit to it. So much of this is money that no longer gets used on arm sales in Afghanistan needing a place to be parked. That said, Putin sees this war as an existential threat and has decided (rightfully so) that the west will not meaningfully negotiate with Russia under any circumstance. During the Cold War, the US consistently dominated soviet foreign policy by threatening to end the world with nuclear war. Threatening to be the bringer of the apocalypse has great strategic benefit. All the countries near Russia (eg Poland, Germany, Finland) know that they’re toast in the case of a nuclear war. They will significantly alter their policy in response and make every overture to prevent a meaningful US response in case of Russia using nukes. Breaking up the European block has value for Russia, and they may see that as the only way to do it, especially if cutting off energy to central europe this winter doesn’t do the trick. I’d say we’re as close to to seeing the use of nuclear weapons as we ever have been before, but I don’t see the US using an apocalyptic response strategy. It’s bad for business and the powers that be in the west ultimately don’t care about anything else