Great point!

I suppose that to help us decide which of the two hypotheses is correct, we could test for lead content in bone and organ samples? And compare x-rays? But…

You have also made me realise something else: I may have set up a false dichotomy within the idea of ‘experiment’. In my example above I imply that an experiment is something (a set of conditions?) that e.g. a scientist sets up. But if we test for lead in blood or other tissue, or compare x-rays, is that not an experiment? Okay, the scientist need not give people lead in the first place, but once patients turn up having ingested lead, what follows may be described as an experiment, no?

You’re still right, I think, to correct me and say that experiments are difficult / impossible to replace. (Well, we could avoid experiments, but we would not get far.)

I think there’s something else to pull out of your observation (continuing with the example above): Marxist-Leninists must still consider different hypotheses for the tendency towards monopoly or consider whether capitalism always tends towards monopoly; and they must ‘experiment’ to see which hypothesis is more accurate / more useful for predictions.

A good example would be Kautsky, arguing that socialists should break up monopolies and use state power to control smaller companies. Lenin rejected this idea, observing that we started with lots of smaller companies and history brought us to imperialism. Those remade smaller companies would again form (secret) cartels and trusts to get an advantage and we would soon be back at imperialism.

Another example is Kwame Nkrumah’s Neocolonialism: The Last Stage of Imperialism. In this book, Nkrumah updates Lenin’s thesis to take account of new data – i.e. showing that imperialists dodged the full contradictions of imperialism by exporting those contradictions to the (ex-)colonies.

Taking this further, and in light of some other comments in this thread, I now also see more clearly that Marxist-Leninists can ‘experiment’ with human relations. For instance today we have data showing that if a communist party plans parts of its economy, we can avoid some of the worst aspects of monopoly and provide e.g. housing, education, and healthcare to all. (For clarity, this does not mean Kautsky was right – it suggests instead that the state can control the monopolies rather than breaking then up.)

Warning: I’m talking about lead in this example as if we were the first people to consider the problem, thinking, how do we know if lead is harmful, and how much is harmful. But we do know lead is harmful! Be very careful with lead!

Be cautious especially with wood and metal paint if it was painted before the 1960s to be safe. Lead is incredibly harmful, especially to children under 6 (I’m told they will keep eating lead paint chips because it is sweet – Romans used it in wine). And except for the body’s ability to get rid of some lead upon ingestion (not much, adults more than children), adults and children absorb lead in bones and it is to my knowledge impossible to remove unless you go straight to the emergency room before it has been absorbed (can take a few days, I think) and take a prescription that can prevent that absorption.

Once the bones are ‘full’, any more lead goes to the organs and eventually the brain, again where it cannot really be removed. At this point, the subject would suffer from organ failure and brain damage. If you are decorating an old house, you can buy lead testing strips. Dip in vinegar, then rub on suspicious paint. If it goes ‘pink’ (read the instructions), do not sand or scrape! Not 100% accurate, but better than nothing.

For anyone in construction, read up on lead poisoning. Plumbers and roofers may come into contact with a lot of lead, for example. Wear gloves and an FFP3 mask and do not eat or drink until you have washed your hands well. (There is a campaign about occupational risks of lead, but it’s not widely known. Probably because preventing the occupational risks would cut into profits.)