- cross-posted to:
- news@hexbear.net
- palestine@lemmy.ml
- cross-posted to:
- news@hexbear.net
- palestine@lemmy.ml
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Fucking hilarious. This is such a bad plan. “lets send racial supremacists to East Asia!”
The bougies are gonna get a bit of tourism cash but the proles will have to actually deal with the genocidal racist fucks. Imagine thinking the way to firm up support of a proxy is to send the most racist and entitled people the west has to offer.
My god. This seems a trap for Xi. If he does nothing, he looks weak and opens the door to Western aggression. If he addresses it, it opens the door to Western aggression. Am I missing something?
lol you’re overthinking this. taiwan looks like an american puppet doing this, and this likely backfires.
The Western leftists sure seem to be finding their inner fascists.
My prediction is that China will do nothing, I also expect that when China does decide to do something about Taiwan it will be economic pressure as the first step. The economy in Taiwan is entirely dependent on the mainland to function, and China could just embargo the province. The next step in escalation would be blockading shipping, and at that point the US would have to decide whether they’re willing to go to war with China over Taiwan. I think the notion that China will militarily invade Taiwan is far fetched because it would be the most costly one, and there’s no need to do it given that Taiwan cannot function on an internal economy alone. For example, around 90% of energy is imported.
I suppose the issue is the puppet regime there would likely respond to a blockade with military force. Not day one, maybe not even week one but eventually.
They have thousands of rockets trained on the mainland which they’d fire and rain down on the military and civilians alike in China to push the issue. Yes they’d eventually run out but the problem is the US would try to fly more in. Ships you can ram and get in the way of and blockades are therefore effective without needing to blow up a carrier, planes you have to shoot down and at that point it becomes a question of whether China would shoot down a US military transport plane and put itself in drawing first blood type of thing at which point you get American chuds hooting and baying for blood in response and liberals declaring we also must respond to “stand with Taiwan”.
Make no mistake the US does not intend to let the Taiwan card be only half played. They won’t let China quietly strangle it into submission with a blockade or sanctions, they will force the government to attack China and start a war no matter how doomed a position it puts them in because it lets them paint China as militarily aggressive and rally Europe and the anglo-sphere and their loyal Asian vassals to decouple from and sanction China in response with a purported cause they can blast to their populations.
Let’s also not forget the US has reserve currency status. They can spend as much as they like. Let’s recall the Berlin airlift where the Soviets cut off truck and land shipments into divided Berlin post-war and the US just responded by using its immense wealth and military and industrial and logistics might to just fly supplies in.
Frankly short of a coup by rational military generals in Taiwan who order the stand-down to save their lives and those of their countrymen I just don’t see a situation where the US doesn’t use Taiwan in a Ukraine style play. They won’t last as long but they really only need to hold out for a week of breathless western propaganda coverage and crying about evil China to get things done. After that it doesn’t really matter if they crumple and China doesn’t need to do a massive invasion because they’ll have drawn the blood they wanted and cast China as the villain and victimized Taiwan to do it.
It’s hard to know how many missiles they actually have, but I would be shocked if China didn’t carefully track their launchers along with the ammo depots. The mainland can obviously send far more missiles back and destroy their strike capacity. Russia does this in Ukraine all the time.
Meanwhile, if the island is under blockade then the US trying to fly things in will be an act of war. Recall that Taiwan is officially part of China as recognized by the UN and the US itself. If China closes the airspace then the US would be violating Chinese sovereign space. I’m not saying the US wouldn’t do that, but at that point it’s a direct war with China for them. Also, the whole US strategy is predicated on China doing a ground invasion. Every naval battle the US simulated against China, they lost horribly.
Beyond military impotence, the US is in incredibly weak position economically vis-a-vis China. Just look at how the trade war is destroying the US economy right now. Imagine what happens if China explicitly cuts off exports to the US.
A coup is not that unlikely either, some retired military people in Taiwan have openly talked about it already.
The mainland can obviously send far more missiles back and destroy their strike capacity. Russia does this in Ukraine all the time.
These are not rational actors. Neither is Ukraine. Both are and would be in this scenario run by liberal fanatics/fascist fanatics willing to burn their nation to a cinder for the US. Ukraine is illustrative of this point not really mattering per se.
Meanwhile, if the island is under blockade then the US trying to fly things in will be an act of war.
And targeting Russia’s nuclear triad and hitting their bombers with obvious help from NATO intelligence isn’t? The point is the west thinks rules don’t apply to them and given Russia hasn’t hit MI:6 with an oreshnik yet they seem to be right. In that they can do whatever they want and if you hit them back directly as long as they have a cover THEY themselves believe in no matter how flimsy for their actions they will fly off the handle into a genocidal self-righteous indignant rage. Russia seems to know this, China probably does as well.
I’m not saying the US wouldn’t do that, but at that point it’s a direct war with China for them.
Only if China chooses to and given Russia keeps blinking they may think China will as well and that they can unilaterally escalate while their foes will avoid it, giving them the advantage.
Also, the whole US strategy is predicated on China doing a ground invasion. Every naval battle the US simulated against China, they lost horribly.
Is it? I saw a story of the head of JSOC talking of naval drones and basically mining the whole straits, turning into a zone China cannot cross and using that time to do whatever they want including landing forces. I don’t think the US plans to send in their carrier battlegroups and fight on China’s front door. They are not that stupid and even if they were good strategy would call for assuming they’re smarter than that as one should never underestimate one’s enemy. They have island chains and have been building naval drones in secret for some time now so they can do over the horizon type fighting. Their point like with Ukraine is to bleed China, not to triumphantly plant the US flag but to bleed them, to hurt them, to study them and learn their secrets, to demoralize them, to force it to take longer and be costlier and to make it a big spectacle they can use to rally the western world against China around as this big travesty and atrocity.
I maintain given the US advantage, given island chains not just around China but those policing west Asia, Africa, etc and NATO’s combined naval sizes plus all the land bases and air assets they have that most likely they want to bleed China in the SCS, use it to justify decoupling, sanctions and an embargo and blockade and carry out that blockade off the coast of Africa, Diego Garcia, in the various straits using the zionist entity in west Asia, etc, etc. To draw China out, to spread them out, to hit them with combined naval and air assets and use the superior logistics and amounts of bases NATO has. By doing this they cross out the major advantage China has in the SCS with land-based missiles and rocketry and fight from the high-ground.
Just look at how the trade war is destroying the US economy right now. Imagine what happens if China explicitly cuts off exports to the US.
Which is why they’re so desperate to decouple. The bribes didn’t work and were pocketed, Trump is very clumsily trying tariffs. But when it comes down to it they might think they can force decoupling with a conflict when all else has failed. Sure the consumer economy would implode but I’m not sure capitalists and empire planners wouldn’t consider that and forcing the proles to a much lower quality of life as they work to re-shore an acceptable if painful cost of survival and maintaining hegemony.
A coup is not that unlikely either, some retired military people in Taiwan have openly talked about it already.
I really hope that happens but I wouldn’t count on it. I’m sure the island is filled with US spies and trained dogs and any coup would face a counter-coup of ferocious proportions with support from US assets in Japan and possibly those US special forces already on the ground.
I just worry most about the nukes flying. I hope this conflict doesn’t start until China has a chance to massively expand their arsenal and proof it against Aegis and ground and orbital interceptors.
These are not rational actors. Neither is Ukraine. Both are and would be in this scenario run by liberal fanatics/fascist fanatics willing to burn their nation to a cinder for the US. Ukraine is illustrative of this point not really mattering per se.
The situation in Taiwan is clearly quite different from Ukraine, for example we just found out that DPP has been infiltrated at the highest levels. https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202506100009
The US backed puppets in Taiwan are hanging by a thread right now. There’s no fascist nationalist movement in Taiwan to exploit the way there was in Ukraine. Most people still see themselves as being Chinese, and every poll shows that vast majority of people want to maintain the status quo. The support for independence is practically nil. The military also appears to realize that a war with the mainland would be a disaster, and there’s a pretty high chance of a military coup if the government actually tried to move in that direction. The war in Ukraine is also obviously a psychological factor for Taiwan. It’s a clear illustration of what will happen to them, and that the US cannot save them.
My expectation is that KMT will likely get in power sooner than later, and they will make a deal with the mainland to repatriate. These are the last gasps of the US backed regime in Taiwan.
And targeting Russia’s nuclear triad and hitting their bombers with obvious help from NATO intelligence isn’t?
We have yet to see how Russia will respond to that. I know the west thinks they can do whatever they like, but eventually they will cross another red line like they did with Ukraine and it will result in major blowback. The war in Ukraine has been an unmitigated disaster for the west. It destroyed Europe economically, it effectively demilitarized NATO, it exposed lack of industrial capacity in the west, and it broke dollar hegemony on the world. The empire is far weaker today than it was three years ago.
Only if China chooses to and given Russia keeps blinking they may think China will as well and that they can unilaterally escalate while their foes will avoid it, giving them the advantage.
Russia is taking the rational approach in my opinion. They’re defeating NATO in Ukraine, but avoiding a wider escalation that would not be in Russia’s interest. The ultimate defeat for the west will be economic in nature. We’re already seeing the panic in Europe over having to vastly increase military spending, and at the same time we see growing political instability due to a collapse in the standard of living. This is not a sustainable situation. Meanwhile, the US isn’t doing much better, especially now that they’ve started an economic war with the whole world.
There’s no need for Russia to make a big attack on the west that might actually rally public opinion for an open war with Russia. It’s much better to just let the west implode economically and tear itself apart.
Is it? I saw a story of the head of JSOC talking of naval drones and basically mining the whole straits, turning into a zone China cannot cross and using that time to do whatever they want including landing forces.
As far as I know this is nothing more than a drug fueled fantasy.
They have island chains and have been building naval drones in secret for some time now so they can do over the horizon type fighting.
Given that the US can’t build much of anything, I have serious doubts they’ve built any significant amount of these naval drones, if any at all. The current rare earth export restrictions will certainly make sure they’re not building any more going forward.
Their point like with Ukraine is to bleed China, not to triumphantly plant the US flag but to bleed them, to hurt them, to study them and learn their secrets, to demoralize them, to force it to take longer and be costlier and to make it a big spectacle they can use to rally the western world against China around as this big travesty and atrocity.
I just don’t see how this works in practice. Anything the US can build, China can build more of. If naval drones become the major weapon, then China will simply be building hundreds to thousands more of these things for each one that the US can produce.
I really don’t see what this advantage you’re talking about is. It seems quite obvious to me that the opposite is the case. The supply chain situation is an operational nightmare for the US. They have to ship weapons half way across the world, while China produces them locally. In a war of attrition, which is what this would be, China has the exact same advantage as Russia.
Which is why they’re so desperate to decouple.
They understand their vulnerability, but they’re just manifesting. The reality is that there is no way for the US to reshore the industry at scale. The only way to do that would be by making a massive government run program the way they did during WW2, and there’s no political will to do something like that. Even if that was possible, it would still take decades to establish local supply chain, train workers, build factories, and so on. It’s a colossal project that can’t be willed into existence no matter how much they want to.
I just worry most about the nukes flying. I hope this conflict doesn’t start until China has a chance to massively expand their arsenal and proof it against Aegis and ground and orbital interceptors.
I imagine the current arsenal is already sufficient to devastate the US. The interceptors simply don’t work in practice. Even the whole golden dome idea is pure nonsense. https://youtu.be/D9Wzlqh7bIs
The US would not survive a nuclear war. However, the scary part is that US leadership might think that they will, and if they do start a nuclear war based on that assumption then we are all doomed. This is the only genuine worry I have about this whole thing.
I found a YouTube link in your comment. Here are links to the same video on alternative frontends that protect your privacy:
I’m guessing this program is geared toward lessening economic damage, and wouldn’t djt simply slap on more tariffs and sanction any nations that did any business or try to avoid tariffs?
I’m also not confident his handlers aren’t champing at the bit for MAD.
We already see how the attempt to put tariffs on China is going for the US. However, the fact that Americans may be crazy enough to start a nuclear war cannot be discounted unfortunately.
My biggest frustration is that Europe is coalescing towards full blown fascism and coming to heel behind the USA. Libs are scrambling madly for justifying continued support, this isn’t just IRL or online, but both. The Grand Experiment did fail, and I’m looking for hope that a more equitable global society can exist, even if I’m not here to witness it, before the humans extinct themselves.
I do think the future of humanity lies outside the west if there is one to be had.
Well, at least I had the opportunity to talk to people outside my bubble, even if only online. I appreciate that, and I appreciate you and your posts. Thank you for that.
thanks, and appreciate you as well :)
