PL-15 is a very long range radar guided missile, so time till impact varies on launch distance, and when or if it’s detected. The PL-15 has a maximum burnout velocity of over 6500kph, around Mach 5.5. However average velocity will be substantially lower than that due to aerodynamic drag after the daul pulse rocket motor has finished burning out, and at very long range air to air missiles like the AIM-120D, air launched SM-6, R-37M and the PL-15 use a quasi ballistic trajectory to maximise range. If you assume an average velocity of 3000kph and a firing distance of 150km (max range of the export variant of the PL-15, called the PL-15E is 145km, domestic variant up to 300km in extreme scenarios), and an instant launch detection, at most a pilot would have 180 seconds, or three minutes, to carry out evasive maneuvers and deploy countermeasures. However, that’s a best case scenario. Realistically a pilot will have less time, the average speed of the missile could be faster, or detection much later.

To detect a radar guided missile, modern jets have something called a radar warning receiver (RWR) to detect enemy radars, changes of frequency when being locked onto and fired upon, etc. The Rafale has a big one on the vertical stabiliser.

However, modern radar guided missiles are not only guided by the radar on the launch aircraft (semi active homing), they have their own mini radars on the missile themselves, that can lock onto a target once close enough, and can operate fully autonomously at that point (fire and forget capability). These are called active radar homing missiles, or fox threes by NATO pilots. The PL-15 is one such missile, it has a mini active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar in the nosecone.

This complicates jamming and detection efforts, as the enemy fighter can turn off their radar after a certain point, or with modern datalink capabilities, the missile can be guided by a completely different source such as an AWACS aircraft, until it gets to the point it can use its own radar. Then the RWR struggles to detect the initial launch, as the fighter launching it can have it’s radar completely off, or turn it off soon after launch. Then the RWR would only detect the missile much later, when it turns on it’s own radar. The RWR could even be jammed by the enemy, making it inoperable, leaving only the missile approach warning system to detect an incoming missile, these are usually passive systems that make use of infrared search and track technology, so if relatively short range, they were initially invented to detect incoming infrared guided missiles. As for jamming the radar of the missile itself, modern active homing missiles with mini AESA radars can even do frequency hopping, to hop onto a clean frequency, or even home in on a jamming source itself. Complex “kill chains”. This all complicates things greatly, which is why many say modern air combat is a case of see first, shoot first, win. And Pakistan has the advantage in the amount of “eyes” they have (more AWACS aircraft and more fighters with AESA radars). Of course a friendly AWACS could inform a fighter pilot of an incoming projectile once they detect it using their much more powerful radars, but they have to detect it.

For countermeasures, options available are electromagnetic jamming (already discussed that), and chaff dispensing, or even towed decoys attached to the aircraft itself, while taking evasive maneuvers to try force an energy defeat scenario (the missile runs out energy). No flares as it’s a radar guided missile. However, with modern active homing missiles with mini AESA radars, chaff and decoys no longer work as well, as the radar, despite being much smaller, is much closer to the target itself, making it easier for it to differentiate between the target and chaff or decoys. As for energy defeat, it’s quite possible, especially if the missile is not very agile to begin with, like an R-37M for instance. But that requires the pilot to be informed of the launch as it happens, to have enough time to maneuver and bleed the incoming missile of its energy. And a PL-15 is more agile than an R-37M. A direct hit is not needed, modern blast fragmentation missiles have a proximity fuse that will set off the warhead once close enough, coating the target in shrapnel.

Would France have any power here? The issue is whether or not India attacks Pakistan. What happens afterward is all data. My conjecture is the US has a vested interest in India attacking Pakistan, that this flare up was engineered by the US, and I am trying to understand what the US gains from it as a way of analyzing my hypothesis

maybe they weren’t expecting to get shot down and assumed they’d get the data without any losses

I didn’t think China would be pushing for a conflagration to test their systems though

Yup. Even thinking cynically, those organized in groups will be able to deprive the individualists of their stockpiles.

You ain’t surviving shit in such a situation. I’m not either - that’s guaranteed though.

In the case it actually does happen and you succeed - enjoy your survivalist fantasy.

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Oh yeah thats probably true. Get good at hydroponics. Fun fact you can make your own hydroponics juice with charred wood

Not just the mass famine, but the panic first

In the case of a limited exchange I’m quite sceptical of the study that suggested the ash would cause significant global cooling for a prolonged period of time (5 years+). I think they overestimate both the amount of ash and particulates generated and the amount of time it would remain in the upper atmosphere, alongside the extent of the resulting fires.

I’ve been depressed and suicidal for a long time. I’m tired. I’m also trans. I don’t know any trans people irl and am not sure how I’d find them. No hormones right now either. I need access to healthcare. tbh this site is the only thing keeping me half sane.

Also I think you underestimate how difficult farming etc is going to be. Especially with climate change and a break down of infrastructure. Collapse is going to be awful and I can’t deal with any more awfulness.