In the case of a limited exchange I’m quite sceptical of the study that suggested the ash would cause significant global cooling for a prolonged period of time (5 years+). I think they overestimate both the amount of ash and particulates generated and the amount of time it would remain in the upper atmosphere, alongside the extent of the resulting fires.
The eruption that caused the year without summer had hundreds of times the explosive force of the entire Indian and Pakistani arsenal combined and threw almost 200 cubic kilometres of ash and tephra very high into the atmosphere. It was an event on an entirely different scale.
No, I do get that, but the emissions from extensive fires across the region are still substantially different from what you’d see in the kind of event we have seen produce actual global cooling events like the 1815 eruption.
I’m willing to believe that it’s possible, but I think the initial study suggesting it could happen makes some overly broad assumptions and I’ve seen subsequent studies fail to reach the same conclusion with similar analysis.
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Not just the mass famine, but the panic first
In the case of a limited exchange I’m quite sceptical of the study that suggested the ash would cause significant global cooling for a prolonged period of time (5 years+). I think they overestimate both the amount of ash and particulates generated and the amount of time it would remain in the upper atmosphere, alongside the extent of the resulting fires.
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The eruption that caused the year without summer had hundreds of times the explosive force of the entire Indian and Pakistani arsenal combined and threw almost 200 cubic kilometres of ash and tephra very high into the atmosphere. It was an event on an entirely different scale.
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No, I do get that, but the emissions from extensive fires across the region are still substantially different from what you’d see in the kind of event we have seen produce actual global cooling events like the 1815 eruption.
I’m willing to believe that it’s possible, but I think the initial study suggesting it could happen makes some overly broad assumptions and I’ve seen subsequent studies fail to reach the same conclusion with similar analysis.